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Preview: Detroit at Kansas

December 28, 2006

Detroit at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

  Kansas Detroit

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 10-2 3-8
AP Rank 9 NR
Consensus Ranking
(average of several computer ratings and AP/Coaches polls)		 26 237
RPI
(not a good judge of strength, only used for rough estimate of strength of opponent)		 52 292
Best wins this season (Ranking from Pomeroy) vs Florida (# 1) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Boston College (# 35) W 84-66		 vs Northeastern (# 233) W 60-51
vs Maine (# 267) W 57-50

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win 78-51  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 27  
Analysis of Variance
(uses team performance and consistency over last 10 games)		 100% chance of victory  
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) Win 80-49
100% chance of victory		  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER ePSAN70 ePSAN
Darrell Arthur 7.29 45.87
Jeremy Case* 6.71 6.92
Julian Wright 5.93 50.21
Darnell Jackson 5.00 25.96
Mario Chalmers 4.74 38.98
Brady Morningstar 4.09 5.07
Russell Robinson 2.21 20.21
Sasha Kaun 1.90 6.62
Sherron Collins 1.68 8.99
Brandon Rush 1.65 15.32
Rodrick Stewart* 0.80 1.44
Matt Kleinmann* 0.64 0.59
Brennan Bechard* -0.60 -0.07
Brad Witherspoon* -4.09 -0.40

* Rating not based on enough data.

Detroit

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

 
 
PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Ryvon Covile 6.56 55.70
Jon Goode 2.71 13.41
Brandon Cotton -0.08 -0.63
Tryl Hartfield* -0.80 -0.15
Zach Everingham -1.18 -4.24
Justin Sample* -1.61 -1.03
Muhammad Abdur-Rahim -1.87 -6.91
Chris Hayes -1.96 -12.48
Brandon Bell -2.42 -12.61
Jason Praet* -3.03 -0.28
Theron Washington* -4.33 -6.77
Nemanja Jokic -6.96 -20.34
Eulis Stephens -7.02 -19.21
Woody Payne -8.92 -18.67

* Rating not based on enough data.
 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

No analysis.  Too big a mismatch.  Just note the huge ratings difference between the two top scorers on Detroit, Covile and Cotton.  Covile is a guy who does a bit of everything, but Cotton just scores.  In fact, Covile has played well enough that his rating is bested only by KU's Darrell Arthur.  There just isn't nearly enough talent around Covile to make this a game though.  Don't even expect Covile to have a very good game, since KU will know he's the only major threat and focus their efforts on him.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics
(from Pomeroy)

Kansas

Detroit
  • Offense #20 - Defense #5 - Tempo #105
  • Dominant offensive rebounding (#16)
  • Ranks #17 in eFG% allowed, and #4 in 2FG% allowed
  • Ranked #19 in forcing TO's by opponents, including #17 in STL
  • Dominates the blocking game, #11 in avoiding BLK and #4 in making
  • Ranks #299 in % of FGA's that are 3FG

Individual Player Highlights:

  • Russell Robinson - #12 FT rate, #196 STL rate
  • Julian Wright - #99 D-Reb%, #107 BLK rate
  • Mario Chalmers - #15 STL rate
  • Darrell Arthur - #44 O-Reb%, #24 BLK rate, #144 STL rate
  • Darnell Jackson - #13 O-Reb%, #149 D-Reb%
  • Offense #252 - Defense #189 - Tempo #298
  • Hardly forces any TO's (#301) or STL (#267)
  • Makes very poor use of FT line (#285)
  • Keeps opponents off the offensive glass (#43)
  • Shoots a terrible 3FG% and allows very high opponents 3FG%, same with FT%
  • Great at avoiding BLK (#40)

Individual Player Highlights:

  • Ryvon Covile - #140 O-Reb%, #1 D-Reb%, #170 FT rate, #130 TO rate (good), #114 BLK rate
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents rely on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's.
  • On offense, UDM relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

 

Clear Advantage for Kansas No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for Detroit
Kansas Strength - Detroit Points Per Possession    
Kansas Strength - Detroit TO rate    
Detroit FT%    
Kansas TO rate    
Detroit FT Rate    
Kansas Strength - Detroit eFG%    
Detroit OREB    
Kansas Strength - Kansas Points Per Possession    
Kansas Strength - Detroit % Poss STL by Opp    
Kansas Strength - Detroit 2pt FG%    
Kansas Strength - Kansas % Poss Blocked by Opp    
Kansas 3pt FG%    
  Kansas FT%  
  Kansas eFG%  
  Detroit 3pt FG%  
  Kansas 2pt FG%  
  Kansas % Poss STL by Opp  
  Detroit % Poss Blocked by Opp  
  Kansas OREB  
  Kansas FT Rate  

 

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted
Kansas plays faster tempo than Detroit

 

Game Outlook

This is a huge mismatch that could get ugly if Kansas is on its game.  The two biggest advantages for KU appear to be in keeping UDM from scoring and forcing it to turn the ball over.  If that doesn't spell a recipe for disaster for the Titans in Allen Fieldhouse, I don't know what does.  What's more, Detroit doesn't usually shoot a lot of 3FG's and makes a pretty low percentage of them.  Their only chance of keeping this game within 20 points is for KU to have a poor shooting night, since UDM has done a fair job of keeping opponents away from the offensive glass.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 85-50.

 

 


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