Home
Kansas Basketball
NCAA Basketball
Basketball Conference Simulations
Basketball Player Ratings Explanation

Football
Radio Appearances
Newsletter
Links
Contact

 

 

Preview: Dartmouth at Kansas

November 27, 2006

Dartmouth at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

  Kansas Dartmouth

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 5-1 0-5
Sagarin Power Ranking 31 333
Pomeroy Pythagorean Rating 9 326
RPI
(not a good judge of strength, only used for rough estimate of strength of opponent)		 37 335
Best games this season (Pyth. Rating) vs Florida (#1) W 82-80 (OT) None

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

    
Vegas Oddsmakers    
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 33.5  
Analysis of Variance
(Uses level and consistency of team performance - power ratings - still not very accurate until all NCAA teams are 'connected')		 99.9% chance of victory  
Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted Prediction Win 99-47  
 

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

NAME ePSAN70 ePSAN
Darrell Arthur 9.89 33.13
Julian Wright 7.74 36.11
Jeremy Case* 5.02 1.63
Russell Robinson 3.99 18.94
Mario Chalmers 3.16 12.91
Darnell Jackson 2.85 8.08
Sherron Collins 1.97 5.65
Brandon Rush 1.20 5.76
Brady Morningstar 0.37 0.24
Brennan Bechard* -0.80 -0.08
Matt Kleinmann* -1.42 -1.14
Rodrick Stewart* -1.69 -1.67
Sasha Kaun -5.74 -4.26
Brad Witherspoon* -5.84 -0.44

* Rating not based on enough data.

Dartmouth

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

 
 
PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Johnathan Ball 3.76 7.42
Robby Pride* 2.93 1.24
DeVon Mosley -1.11 -2.97
Marlon Sanders -1.72 -2.34
Jason Meyer -2.25 -7.49
Jarrett Mathis -2.49 -4.63
Alex Barnett -4.26 -15.09
Brandon Ware* -4.50 -2.12
Brian McMillan -5.35 -9.29
Kurt Graeber -5.63 -5.56
Dan Biber -6.39 -11.42
Michael Giovacchini -7.14 -15.42
Reggie Schickel* -10.05 -6.37
Elgin Fitzgerald* -12.52 -6.76

* Rating not based on enough data.
 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Given the significant discrepancy in talent level, this section is omitted for this game.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics

Kansas

Dartmouth
  • KU has a Top 30 offense and defense.
  • KU is #34 in offensive rebounding.
  • KU is #47 in eFG% allowed, and #43 in 2FG% allowed
  • KU is #33 in % of opponent's possessions blocked
  • KU ranks #305 in % of FG's that are 3FG
  • DU has a #315 offense and #320 defense
  • Essentially every category has poor ranking, except FT% (#75) and opponent's % of FG's that are assisted (#43)
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents are roughly balanced across the board.
  • On offense, DU relies very heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely more heavily on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

 

Clear Advantage for Kansas No Clear Advantage Clear Advantage for Dartmouth
Kansas Strength - Kansas Points Per Possession    
Kansas Strength - Dartmouth Points Per Possession    
Kansas 2pt FG%    
Kansas eFG%    
Kansas Strength - Dartmouth eFG%    
Dartmouth % Poss STL by Opp    
Dartmouth FT Rate    
Kansas Strength - Dartmouth 2pt FG%    
Dartmouth 3pt FG%    
Kansas Strength - Kansas OREB    
Kansas % Poss Blocked by Opp    
Kansas 3pt FG%    
Kansas Strength - Dartmouth % Poss Blocked by Opp    
Dartmouth OREB    
Kansas TO rate    
  Kansas FT Rate  
  Dartmouth TO rate  
  Kansas FT%  
  Kansas % Poss STL by Opp  
  Dartmouth FT%  

 

Game Outlook

Looks like almost everything is in KU's favor, and it should be a cakewalk.  The areas where Dartmouth may stand a chance are:

  • KU's use of the FT line, where the Jayhawks don't usually exploit to the fullest.
  • Dartmouth's ability to hang on to the ball and steal the ball from KU.  Neither is considered an advantage for DU, but not a clear advantage for KU either.

Perhaps the biggest factor in how much of a blowout this game will be is whether the Jayhawks are mentally exhausted after their big win over Florida.  If they are, it could be a 25-30 point game, but if they come mentally focused, it should be a crushing defeat for Dartmouth.  I just have a hunch it will be the latter.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 98-52.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
KU's turnovers and FT% could be the only area of mediocrity KU to keep TO's to fewer than 14 and shoot at least 70% from the line    


Sports and Numbers Newsletter - sign up here
Get notified of updates to the site. Some features written exclusively for newsletter.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy