Preview: Boston College at Kansas

December 22, 2006

Boston College at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Explanation of Ratings
Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Kansas has the more balanced attack in terms of player talent.  Darrell Arthur and Julian Wright lead the way inside for the Jayhawks, each with strong rebounding and blocking skills.  Meanwhile, Mario Chalmers has been the lone star in the backcourt.  He continues to come on strong, especially against stronger opponents.  Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins have both had somewhat mediocre performances overall.  Robinson has really struggled shooting the ball, and against better opponents, his usually-stellar AST:TO ratio starts slipping.  Collins has had several games where his 3FG shooting really changed the game, but he hurts the team with TO's often and sometimes disappears on offense.  Brandon Rush has had a significantly worse shooting season this year than last, but he has made up for it with strong lockdown defense for the most part.  This is one of those games where his defense may matter more than his offense.  Sasha Kaun has not been playing nearly as efficiently as last season, although he's shown signs of potential the last few games.  If he can play without many TO's while making his dunks and layups, that would be "mission accomplished" for him.

BC has a more lopsided player talent pool.  Jared Dudley has been Mr. Everything for the Eagles.  Not one statistical category indicates a weakness really.  He's even been consistent, scoring under 18 points only once.  The only other players with significant contributions as measured by the ratings system are Sean Williams and Shamari Spears.  Williams appears to have been born to block shots, going so far as blocking a school-record 12 shots earlier this season.  He averages 5.4 blocks per game.  Interestingly, he also has 1.7 steals per game.  Great hands for a big guy.  Spears doesn't play as much as Williams but has really shot the ball well and is the second-leading rebounder despite playing only 22 min/gm.

The talent is very top-heavy for BC and concentrated in its frontcourt, while KU's biggest contributors have also been in its frontcourt.  Should make for a heavyweight battle inside.  The Kansas backcourt was supposed to be its strength this season though, so it wouldn't be a shock to see Chalmers, Robinson, Rush, Collins, or some combination of those players have a big game.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

Game Outlook

There are some fascinating game dynamics at play here between two fairly evenly matched teams.  Here are some things we can reasonably expect:

• Kansas should dominate its own offensive glass.
• The turnover game should lean slightly in KU's favor, mostly because KU should be able to get some steals when BC has the ball.
• Kansas will not likely utilize the FT line as much as field goals.
• Neither team will take many 3FG's, and KU probably won't make a high percentage of the few it does take.

The fact that BC tends not to take many 3FG's plays to KU's advantage, as their opponents have shot a high percentage there all season long.  If KU big men can avoid foul trouble, they should be able to block many of BC's inside shots.  That may force BC to take some outside shots, but Dudley has been the only player with much success there this season (42.9% on 9-21 shooting).  Will one of the other perimeter shooters for BC step up and have a big night as most opponents in Allen Fieldhouse seem to?  That means, look out for Rice or Marshall if they're on.

Boston College has been very successful at blocking opponents' shots, but it's come almost exclusively at the hands of Sean Williams with some support from little-used Tyrelle Blair.  To negate KU's inside attack, Sean Williams must stay out of foul trouble to provide a shot-blocking threat.  He's fouled out twice this season but hasn't had much foul trouble the last three games.

Kansas could really get things going if it can truly capitalize on getting some steals and converting on fast breaks.  That would really fire up the crowd and put the pressure on BC.  Although it's not a clear advantage for BC, there is still a good chance BC will steal the ball from Kansas also.  Whichever team can minimize its TO's could really capitalize the most.

You can't talk about BC's chances without talking about Dudley.  He has almost single-handedly carried BC this season.  There just isn't anything he does poorly.  KU must contain him, and probably the man who will be assigned to do so is Brandon Rush.  I wouldn't expect Rush to have a big offensive game since he'll be expending so much of his energy chasing Dudley around the court.

Kansas appears much more loose lately and appears to enjoy playing basketball again.  They will probably be energized for this game much as they were against Florida.  That kind of focus and the recent heavy emphasis on practice should be enough to withstand the talented Eagles' attack.  BC is the kind of team that can beat anyone on any given day, so Kansas had better bring its best effort on court.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 72-68.

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