Recap: Pepperdine at Kansas

Lose a game on the last possession (Nevada, St. Joe's, Arkansas) ... and fans will complain. Lose a game early on (Arizona) ... and fans will complain. Finally, win a game by 20 points (even more impressive given only 106 points scored total) ... and now we know, fans will always complain.

As 18-point favorites and an over/under of 135.5, what was expected was a 77-59 victory (which means KU scoring 56.6% of the points). We actually ended up winning by 20 and scoring 59.4% of the points. Maybe there were things to concern people, but this should not have been a game that resulted in some of the posts I've read on this and other boards.

A few observations on what I liked:

- Our defense had few major lapses. Almost all of their shots were difficult ones. They didn't just miss their shots ... we usually made them miss.
- Rebounding was very impressive, though we outsized them ... but we lived up to expectations there.
- We missed so many chip shots in close. In a game where those fall, we score at least 6-8 pts more.
- We make a few more freethrows, combined with #4 above, we could have won by 30 or more points (and scored in the mid 70's).
- Chalmers may have had his best game yet. He is so good at getting in the passing lanes.

What concerned me:

- Yes, a lot of misses were in close, but it seems like our big guys just throw the ball up and hope something good happens. Maybe Self has coached them that if we're bigger, we should get the ball on the rim to see what happens?

- Wright and Downs should have seen the floor in the 2nd half. Maybe Coach wants them to learn a lesson, but the most important ones right now are learned on the court. Minimal time may have been appropriate, but keeping them on the bench while our players were clearly tired was not a good move IMO.

- Offense in general looks disorganized. It hasn't looked organized, even when it's scoring. I hope Self fixes this, though I'm hearing that we should be prepared for this to continue (a hallmark of his?).


SANZ RATINGS UPDATE

Note: Slight change to my methodology. I have decided not to include stats for any player whose total minutes played are less than 20. I've determined that their per-minute stats are just too misleading and disrupt other players' ratings. I have applied this also retroactively, so comparisons I make are "apples to apples" as they say.

Here are my new SANZ ratings after the game. These are based on determining a rating for each and every category of the boxscore (special rating used for the shooting categories that takes into account how well and how often a player shoots), then weights those ratings according to how important it is for a small, combo, or big (i.e. big would rate more heavily on REB, small on AST). Composite ratings are what you see below. Analysis to follow.

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at about average level or better 
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays significantly below average 
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays significantly below average 
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS rotation (10 Deep = 8 Regular + 2 Role)
32.35 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
24.72 REGULAR Brandon Rush
16.49 REGULAR C.J. Giles
11.31 REGULAR Julian Wright
1.99 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
0.21 REGULAR Russell Robinson
-1.49 REGULAR Micah Downs
-1.68 REGULAR Stephen Vinson
-15.33 ROLE Christian Moody
-22.97 ROLE Jeff Hawkins


Player values increased most as a result of game:
Christian Moody 7.71
Sasha Kaun 6.64
Russell Robinson 2.73
Mario Chalmers 2.10


Player values decreased most as a result of game:
Micah Downs -6.88
C.J. Giles -3.80
Brandon Rush -3.68
Stephen Vinson -3.44


Analysis:
Kaun is now firmly ahead of the pack again. Though he missed a ton of shots, you can't deny that he had a big game last night (18 pts, 12 rbd, 6-8 FT, 3 blks, only 1 PF). Moody also helped himself greatly last night. Although, if he'd missed both of his 3FG's, his rating would be 3.2 pts lower. Even with last night's performance, Moody's stats look pretty bad.

Russell and Mario really brought a lot of energy to the game, and it showed in the boxscore. Both of them moved up a bit in ratings. Robinson has finally started converting on his drives. A few more games to build his confidence, and he may start coming around. Mario had one of his best games of the season. He was everywhere, knocking the ball loose, almost picking off a number passes (to go with 3 that he did). Chalmers has the ability to be as disruptive to opposing offenses as Mookie Blaylock was. But his ballhandling and shooting have to come along, too. You can tell it's a confidence issue, because he passed up open looks from the perimeter. He also needs to run the break better (pass to the middle guy earlier).

Downs' rating went down considerably, but mostly because he hardly played. I do wish he had seen more playing time. One of his strengths had been scoring, but obviously not much of that last night with limited minutes. Same with Julian.

Giles hurt himself with a terrible shooting night (from the field and FT). He also has widened his "lead" in the PF category (team worst).

Rush disappeared after an early burst. with one of his lower-scoring games and 3 TO's, his rating declined a bit.

BEST SHOOTERS

I took the 2FG, 3FG, and FT ratings and simply added them up for each player. Here are the best overall shooters on the team:
Brandon Rush 4.73
Sasha Kaun 1.44
Stephen Vinson 1.36
Julian Wright -0.04
Micah Downs -0.33
Russell Robinson -0.75
Christian Moody -1.11
C.J. Giles -1.32
Jeff Hawkins -1.41
Mario Chalmers -2.58

Yikes, Mario and Jeff. That was supposed to be a strength of yours. Vinson and Wright ... way better than expected. Why is Kaun so high? He doesn't hurt himself with any 3's, has actually made above the team average in FT, and has a great 2FG rating.

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:

1) KU should concentrate on scoring from the inside to use height advantage (Kaun/Giles at least 25 combined FGA)
FAILED: Though technically my target wasn't achieved, it was very clear that KU did concentrate on scoring from inside.

2) KU should crash the offensive glass against undersized PEP (KU gets 40% of available offensive rebounds)
SUCCESS: Incredibly, out of 39 available rebounds on the Jayhawks' offensive side, KU swiped 20 ... over half.

3) Limit offensive mistakes by KU (Limit TO's to 13 or fewer)
FAILED: KU coughed it up 18 times (although I think about 12-13 were in the 1st half)

OVERALL: Achieved 1 key outright, another 1 in spirit, and corrected the third key in the 2nd half to win going away.

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE 

From my "interesting stats" before the game: 

- PEP gives up 10 more pts in the 2nd half than they do in the 1st
RESULT: KU actually scored 3 fewer points in the 2nd half than they did in the 1st.
EDGE: PEP

- PEP takes on 13 3FG's per game and makes only 28% of them, both significantly lower than the NCAA average
RESULT: PEP took more than usual (18) but made an ever lower pct than usual (16.6%)
EDGE: Kansas

- Both teams are poor at the FT line (both around 65%)
RESULT: True to form, KU shot 56% and PEP shot 50% ... pitiful.
EDGE: Fans who like "ugly"

- PEP gets outblocked by 3 per game, while KU outblocks its opponent by almost 4
RESULT: As expected KU won the blocks battle, 10-5
EDGE: Kansas

- In the last 5 games, KU is shooting 40% on 3FG's but only 61% at the FT line
RESULT: Continuing the trend, KU shot 46% on 3FG's but only 56% at the FT line. At this rate, players should start stepping back about 6 feet when taking freethrows ...
EDGE: People who like "bizzare"

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