Recap: Nevada at Kansas

This was another gut-wrenching "could have won it" game. So early in the season and I already have 15 boxes of Rogaine on back order! (Tough to handle in my early thirties).

But let's face it, the team that deserved to win did win. Nevada played solid basketball with a true understanding of what they needed to do. That's what you get when your team opens the season with a clear identity. Fazekas is "the man" and the others need to support him. We had a simiar situation last year with Simien, but team chemistry got in the way, I think. That's a tangent, forget about that.

A few things stood out about the loss for me:

1) Julian Wright - A combination of Self not knowing how to use him or Julian not being far enough along or physically able to hang with opponents led to his complete disappearance. I'm all for waiting until later in the season before judging how Julian or any young player is doing, but I can't stand the thought of our top-rated recruit just sitting idly by and watching games. Look, we're losing anyway ... what's Self afraid of?

2) Toughness - Where is it? Our defense was pretty soft last night. I don't want Kaun and Giles in early foul trouble, but I also don't want to see Sasha get his first foul near the end of the game. A lack of fouls says a lot, too. We knew Nevada was going to go inside, so why did we keep giving them the interior pass. Double teams came late, defenders bought fakes to the perimeter and allowed lob passes inside. Not a solid effort on defense. We're just lucky they didn't shoot 3's, or we wouldn't have stood a chance.

3) Offense - From "hi-lo offense" to "Hello? Offense?" Watching this team put up points is like watching Rosie O'Donnell put on spandex pants. You don't like the process or the results. Somehow, Self has to figure out the identity of this team, on offense and defense. Until then, our players will just play with scattered moments of brilliance sprinkled amongst mostly disappointing stretches.

I do think the ship can turn around. I do think we'll be a much better team in March than we are now. I just hope things get better before I've run out of couch pillows to shred.


New SANZ rankings are as follows:

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at about average level or better 
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays significantly below average 
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays significantly below average 
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

37.25 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
27.72 REGULAR Brandon Rush
20.99 REGULAR C.J. Giles
15.74 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
5.17 Scrub Matt Kleinmann
2.84 REGULAR Julian Wright
1.42 REGULAR Russell Robinson
0.79 REGULAR Micah Downs
-7.60 Dud Stephen Vinson
-18.59 Scrub Jeremy Case
-19.25 Dud Christian Moody
-20.71 ROLE Jeff Hawkins


Player values increased most as a result of game:
Micah Downs 3.66
Jeremy Case 2.76
C.J. Giles 2.53
Brandon Rush 2.50

Player values decreased most as a result of game:
Stephen Vinson -5.78
Jeff Hawkins -3.13
Christian Moody -1.80
Julian Wright -1.78


Analysis:
Now, we're settling into the season a bit more, and the stats become more accurate, although they still don't capture intangibles (defense, screens, leadership, etc).

Downs had a terrific game, with most of his jump attributable to his huge improvement in 3FG rating. He is now 2nd on the team in that category.

Because Case's improvement is due to changes in other players' stats, we won't discuss it.

Giles ratings improved significantly in STL, BLK, and D-Reb.

While Rush improved a decent amount in 2FG, FT, D-Reb, T-Reb, and BLK.

It's hard to believe Hawkins could have been one of the biggest drops, given his low previous status, but sure enough, he was able to "unimprove" his ratings. His 3FG continues to plummet, and he's now even turning it over more than before while not getting as many AST. Can someone remind me of why he is the starting PG again? The only thing that saves him from being even worse is an improvement in FT rating.

And the parade of stabilizing senior leadership continues with Moody, whose horrendous performance in PF, TO, and FT contributed to his further decline in the ratings. When Moody decides to do something, he does it poorly. Seems that when he's just reacting, he's doing better. I wonder how he would "react" to not playing anymore?

Finally, our top-rated recruit ... guess Self hasn't met Mr. Wright or even Mr. Wright Now. Julian sat the second half. What little he did play resulted in a worse rating mostly in O-Reb, BLK, and T-Reb. Though his shooting categories improved a bit (probably mostly because KU stunk it up as a team more than he did).

Our stars appear to be Kaun, Rush, Giles, and Chalmers. One of those guys keeps waiting his turn for the lowest-rated player to get his obligatory fouls at the halfcourt line and 3-4 missed 3-pointers before getting into the game. I know, I know ... Chalmers isn't a great ballhandler yet, but the future of this team is with Chalmers, not Hawkins. The future of this team is ALL we have now, because we've put ourselves in a terrible current position. Let's hope Self agrees and starts giving the young guys the chance to learn on the job.


Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:

1) Only one of the main three (Fazekas, Kemp, Charlo) should score over 18 points.
SUCCESS: Only problem is that the one guy who did (Fazekas) scored 35 points.

2) Kaun and Giles must stay out of foul trouble to play enough minutes against a strong frontline (at least 50 minutes combined)
SUCCESS: They played 59 minutes, but Kaun's lack of fouls could have been a lack of aggressiveness, too.

3) KU cannot allow UN to make a significant number of three's to open up the inside (hold UN to <=4 3FG made)
SUCCESS: UN only made 3 out of 14.

OVERALL: Achieved all 3 keys to victories but still lost a heartbreaker. Not the right keys to victory, obviously!

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE 

From my "interesting stats" before the game: 

- UN plays much faster 2nd halves than 1st (teams combine for 61 pts in 1st half vs 80 pts in 2nd half)
RESULT: Sure enough, second half had more pts (80) than the first (62).
EDGE: N/A

- UN shoots 49% FG, but KU only allows 35% FG
RESULT: UN shot 41.4% for the game.
EDGE: Nevada, because most of the game they were around 50% ... seemed to miss a lot near the end.

- KU shoots nearly 10 pct points lower than the NCAA average of 33.8% from downtown
RESULT: KU shot 3-12 for 25%
EDGE: Nevada

- UN averages nearly 7 more freethrow attempts than its opponents, while KU gets outshot at the FT line by almost 5
RESULT: UN shot 7 more FTA than KU.
EDGE: Nevada

- KU holds its opponents' AST:TO ratio to 0.48, far below the NCAA average of 0.84 (and UN's avg of 0.78)
RESULT: Nevada had a 1.14 AST:TO ratio
EDGE: Nevada

- Both teams shoot significantly fewer 3pt shots as a pct of their total FG's than the NCAA average
RESULT: Nevada shot 24% of their shots from 3, while KU shot 19%. Good thing cause both teams stunk from there.
EDGE: Even.

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