Recap: Kansas vs Saint Joseph's

This was another gut-wrenching "could have won it" game. So early in the season and I already have 15 boxes of Rogaine on back order! (Tough to handle in my early thirties).

If you recognize that first paragraph, it's because I copied and pasted it from my last postgame wrap-up. Tired of this song and dance yet? You're not alone.

In my pregame, I said that this game would come down to the KU defense's ability to stop SJU's offense and deadly shooting by Stachitas. It did. We didn't. And we lost.

You could argue that it was only freethrows that cost us the game, but just as we were somewhat lucky to hit over 50% of our threes, we were unlucky to miss so many freethrows. If we'd shot a typical percentage of 3's (7-21 instead of 11-21), that would take off 12 points. Hitting a typical percentage of FT's (14-19 instead of 6-19) would have given us back only 8 of those points. You can't have everything ... (where would you put it? - Steven Wright)

I liked a lot of what I saw though. As far as I'm concerned, this was Julian's coming out party. You can see how his energy can really spark this team. Earlier in the season, I thought it looked like this was a team full of playmakers, but I'm changing my mind about that. No one seems to be stepping up. I see Wright as one who is. He has a unique ability to create something when he's at the top of the key, where Moody or someone else would just dump it back out to the perimeter for a routine pass (or more likely, a turnover).

I like that we started hitting some 3-pointers. Hawkins is still shooting in the 20's for the season, so I'm not convinced we'll do well if he continues chucking them up. But Downs has the potential to create some real problems for opposing defenses. And we know Chalmers can hit threes ... he just needs more playing time to get in a groove. Rush won't usually shoot as well as he did last night, but he is a capable perimeter threat. I truly believe that the real KU perimeter shooting is somewhere between where we were before and what we saw last night ... probably around a 33% average (which adjusts to 50% if you count 3pt baskets as 1.5x as valuable as a 2pt).

We didn't turn it over nearly as much as we're used to seeing. And it wasn't because SJU laid back on defense ... they were in our face all night. We missed a lot of opportunities where we got 3,4, or 5 offensive boards and didn't convert.

But we're young, and the young guys are starting to show their stuff. Let me do another cut/paste job:

I do think the ship can turn around. I do think we'll be a much better team in March than we are now. I just hope things get better before I've run out of couch pillows to shred.
[end cut/paste]

And, in the spirit of last night's game, let me quote an all-time great coach: Don't give up, don't ever give up.


New SANZ ratings are as follows:

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at about average level or better 
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays significantly below average 
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays significantly below average 
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS rotation (9 Deep = 8 Regular + 1 Role)
34.15 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
24.85 REGULAR Brandon Rush
13.04 REGULAR C.J. Giles
11.86 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
7.89 REGULAR Julian Wright
2.37 REGULAR Russell Robinson
1.57 REGULAR Micah Downs
0.92 REGULAR Stephen Vinson
-3.16 Scrub Matt Kleinmann
-11.66 Scrub Jeremy Case
-12.35 Dud Christian Moody
-15.76 ROLE Jeff Hawkins

Player values increased most as a result of game:
Jeff Hawkins 7.03
Julian Wright 6.82
Russell Robinson 4.07
Micah Downs 1.54

Player values decreased most as a result of game:
C.J. Giles -10.47
Sasha Kaun -3.32


Analysis:
No major shifts to speak of, though it's somewhat surprising to see Kaun still comfortably atop the ratings after last night's disappearing act. What you have to realize is that these ratings are dependent on how others on the team perform. As a big, Kaun's main competitors are Moody and Giles. Anybody care to comment on their draft status after last night?

Hawkins didn't have to do very well to improve his ratings. As a result of this game, he made huge strides in 3FG and STL, but if you can believe it, he had a huge drop in 2FG. He's still far and away the worst 3FG rating on the team though ... just now he's also the worst in 2FG. Last place and still starting. No comment.

And I'm sure it's no surprise to anyone that Julian's rating shot up. We need more games like this from him.

Encouraging to see Robinson back in a "regular" position. He really stepped up his game with a good shooting night, some AST, and no TO's.

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:

1) KU should control the defensive glass (D-Reb = at least 66% of (KU-DReb + SJU-OReb)
FAILED: KU got 18 D-Reb out of possible 28 for 64%

2) KU should limit SJU to 2FG% of 45% and 3FG% of 30%.
FAILED: Not even close. SJU shot lights out (2FG = 46%, 3FG = 47%)

3) Given SJU's tendency to outscore opponents much better in the 1st half, KU must stay within 5 points at halftime. 
SUCCESS: KU was up by 3, but SJU was already storming back.

OVERALL: Achieved 1 key, almost another (#1), but still lost a heartbreaker.

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE 

From my "interesting stats" before the game: 

- SJU outscores opponents in the 1st half by 10.8 but in the 2nd half by only 5.3
RESULT: Reversal! SJU lost by 3 in 1st half and outscored us by 6 in the 2nd.
EDGE: N/A

- SJU shoots 49% FG, but KU only allows 35% FG
RESULT: SJU shot 47% for the game
EDGE: SJU

- SJU does an excellent job on offensive rebounds, grabbing 45% of available rebounds on the offensive end (KU only gets 36%)
RESULT: SJU got 36% available offensive rebounds, KU got 48%!
EDGE: Kansas

- KU holds its opponents' AST:TO ratio to 0.62, far below the NCAA average of 0.85 (and SJU's avg of 1.2)
RESULT: 1.42 AST:TO ratio for SJU
EDGE: SJU

- SJU's opponents take a significantly higher than average number of their FG from 3-pt (39.5%) but KU only takes 26.8% of its shots from behind the arc
RESULT: KU took 41% of its shots from behind the arc!
EDGE: N/A

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