Recap: Kansas vs California

Kansas did handle Cal's offense rather well, as I had predicted. And the real battle was whether KU could score on them. Well, we didn't do a great job of that ... but good enough. It will be an offensive struggle this year. Thank goodness Giles decided to show up this time!

Here are my new player ratings after the California game. These are based on determining a rating for each and every category of the boxscore (special rating used for the shooting categories that takes into account how well and how often a player shoots), then weights those ratings according to how important it is for a small, combo, or big (i.e. big would rate more heavily on REB, small on AST). Composite ratings are what you see below.

Analysis to follow.

New SANZ ratings are as follows:

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at about average level or better 
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays significantly below average 
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays significantly below average 
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS rotation (9 Deep = 8 Regular + 1 Role)
26.74 REGULAR Brandon Rush
25.60 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
23.13 REGULAR C.J. Giles
10.84 REGULAR Julian Wright
5.18 REGULAR Micah Downs
4.13 REGULAR Stephen Vinson
0.34 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
-0.69 REGULAR Russell Robinson
-6.14 Scrub Matt Kleinmann
-10.42 Scrub Jeremy Case
-16.68 ROLE Jeff Hawkins
-17.65 Dud Christian Moody


Player values increased most as a result of game:
C.J. Giles 11.35
Stephen Vinson 2.87
Micah Downs 2.05


Player values decreased most as a result of game:
Mario Chalmers -7.65
Sasha Kaun -6.61
Christian Moody -4.10


Analysis:
So, I'm sure no one needed to see my numbers to see that Giles was huge for us against Cal. But it's nice to see the numbers adjust accordingly. Vinson and Downs also had strong games.

Sasha dropped, but it's hard to blame him because of his illness. Regardless, this goes in the books as his performance, and thus, he has lost his top spot in the ratings. Over the long haul, a missed game here or there won't affect ratings that much, but this early, it's enough to make a significant change.

Mario clearly had a terrible game. But despite such a terrible game, he still has a composite rating that's above zero and better than Russell. We all see Mario's TO's, but he is more than making up for it with his AST and STL. If he settles down and starts making better decisions, no question he will be immensely important to this team. But until then, he's disrupting our rhythym, boosting our opponents' confidence with his TO's, and missing shots. Let's hope this turns around soon.

Moody didn't play a horrible game, but based on others improving, his status has slipped RELATIVE to the team.

We now have a three-headed monster at the top: Rush, Kaun, and Giles. Julian is beginning to come on strong. Micah's improvement has been very steady. Jeff Hawkins continues to languish near the bottom (an improvement from dead last) even after a decent game against Cal. Jeff's biggest problems are still his scoring (team worst rating) and shooting.

Vinson has now moved into the "regular" rotation because of his increased minutes. Remains to be seen whether his games will all be as steady as the one against Cal, but you have to admit that the team ran most smoothly when he was in the game.

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:

1) Keep Powe in check: no more than 20 pts and 8 rebounds (i.e., not a HUGE game)
SUCCESS: I'd say 16 pts and 11 reb was keeping him in check, considering his typical huge game.

2) KU needs an efficient offense to win the more crucial battle: AST:TO ratio of 1.25 or above
FAILED: 1:1 ratio (mostly thanks to Mario)

3) Hate to say this one: limit Jeff Hawkins' minutes to 20 or less. 
SUCCESS: Jeff played only 20 minutes (thanks to the refs reading my pregame notes, I'm sure)

OVERALL: Achieved 2 keys and came back to win going away.

SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE 

From my "interesting stats" before the game: 

- CAL shoots twice as many (24 vs 12) FT's as opponents, while KU attempts fewer than opponents (20 vs 21)
RESULT: CAL only took a few more (17 vs 14)
EDGE: Even

- CAL shoots 49% FG, but KU only allows 37% FG
RESULT: CAL shot 36% for the game
EDGE: Kansas

- CAL has a very high AST:TO ratio of 1.42 (well above NCAA avg of 0.86)
RESULT: CAL had a 0.71:1 ratio
EDGE: Kansas

- KU averages 7 blocks per game, while CAL only allows 2.4
RESULT: KU swatted 9 shots
EDGE: Kansas

- CAL's opponents take a significantly higher than average number of their FG from 3-pt (39%) but KU only takes 29% of its shots from behind the arc
RESULT: KU took only 21% of its shot from behind the line
EDGE: N/A

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