Recap: Kansas at the Maui Classic

We're young, we're inconsistent, and we're losing. But absolutely none of these three worry me a great deal right now.

Looking at game by game, here's my quick take:

Idaho St. - We were favored by 24 and beat them by 24 - As expected
Arizona - We were 5 point underdogs and lost by 12 - The comeback showed heart - Basically as expected
Arkansas - We were 3.5 point underdogs and lost by 1 - As expected
chaminade - We were favored by about 18 and won by 48 - Better than expected

Any of these losses a huge surprise? Did anyone think we'd be a seasoned team by now? I certainly didn't. So, instead I focus on what we're seeing in player development and team chemistry. I see a strong inside presence. After facing Michigan St. and Maryland, Chaminade labeled our team the best they'd seen "definitely" and that our big guys are extremely tough. I know they're not Div I, but they're people and can tell when someone plays basketball well.

I see a backcourt with flashes of what it can be but too many stretches of what it currently is. Our ragged, turnover-prone perimeter players will improve dramatically over the next few months. And when they do, they'll get it inside to those big, tough guys that can slam it home from time to time. And the 3-pt woes won't be completely averted, but we know they'll be better than the first few games.

I see a team with two potentially dominant forces: Kaun and Rush. Meanwhile, Giles could break out against real competition, too, but I'll reserve judgment until he's done it against someone other than Chaminade. I see young guys who want to make plays, who like each other, who aren't afraid to come back against a better team.

Don't judge this team by what you've seen. Judge it in February, after we've played about six conference games. My guess is we'll be excited about our chances. We'll be disappointed that all the losses will leave us seeded #6-8 or so, but we know no one wants to draw us. And when all is said and done, we'll be so excited about next year, without the bad taste we had this last offseason.

So, now that the whirlwind of 3 games in 3 days is over, let's look at our best players "on paper" and see if anything's developing.

The overall SANZ rating measures how much and efficiently each player contributes to HIS OWN team's statistics. DO NOT COMPARE player ratings on one team to the other team ... they are ONLY valid as comparison to players on the same team. These ratings can show how balanced a team is, and who its key contributors are. Naturally, it cannot measure things not captured in a boxscore (screens, defensive, leadership, hand in face, etc.).

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at near-average level or better
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays considerably below average
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays considerably below average
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS (Rotation = 9 Deep = 8 Regular + 1 Role)
36.56 Sasha Kaun REGULAR
25.22 Brandon Rush REGULAR
18.46 C.J. Giles REGULAR
16.72 Mario Chalmers REGULAR
4.61 Julian Wright REGULAR
4.25 Matt Kleinmann Scrub
1.13 Russell Robinson REGULAR
-1.82 Stephen Vinson REGULAR
-2.87 Micah Downs REGULAR
-17.45 Christian Moody Dud
-17.58 Jeff Hawkins ROLE
-21.35 Jeremy Case Scrub

ANALYSIS

Looks like our depth is improving. The Chaminade game clearly helped that as we saw some more evenly distributed minutes among players.

Makes sense to see Kaun, Rush, Giles, and Chalmers at the top. They're the ones with stats that have stood out. You could argue that JHawk's assists were eye-opening, but that's all he's doing unfortunately.

Kaun - He's absolutely dominating the statistics and would show it better if not for his team-worst FT rating (remember, not just pct, but how many he shoots figures in there).

Rush - Our best 2FG and 3FG shooter, 2nd best scorer, and not bad at anything else. I'm extremely impressed with his overall contributions so far.

Giles - His biggest extremes are his BLK (2nd on team to Julian) and PF (2nd worse to Kleinmann). Otherwise, he's fared well all-around.

Chalmers - Best FT rating, but hurts himself on O-Reb, BLK, and TO (worst in all three). He has our third best 3FG rating (behind Brandon and Russell).

Wright - Worst on team in 2FG and best in BLK. Guess that vindicates those who said he can do everything but shoot?

Robinson - Terrible 2FG and FT, but he's not worst or best in any single category. So, makes sense that his rating is around the zero mark.

Downs - He's the worst on the team in STL, but he does well in the mistakes (TO, PF). And since his 3FG rating is low right now, I expect his overall rating to increase as his three-point shooting starts coming up to where it belongs.

Moody - Somewhat below average in nearly every category of the boxscore.

Hawkins - A starter, but he's the lowest rated non-scrub player! It's easy to see why though. He does have the highest AST rating, but he has the worst 3FG and PTS rating. And he is terrible in the TO and PF categories. As you'll see though, he's in there because we need ball handling.


GETTING A HANDLE ON BALLHANDLING

One of our biggest problems seems to be the ability to keep the ball (or lack thereof). It's almost comical sometimes. I don't have an AST/TO ratio as one of my factors (easily calculated by looking at team stats pages), but I decided to take each player's AST rating and subtract the TO rating (because a "high" rating in TO is actually bad). I didn't use season totals or per game results (like I do in my overall ratings) because it's just so early in the season. Here's the results:


NAME -------- AST minus TO rating
Matt Kleinmann 3.434944932
Stephen Vinson 1.491375553
Jeff Hawkins 0.571253175
Jeremy Case 0.374964455
Micah Downs 0.284376371
Sasha Kaun -0.146918748
Russell Robinson -0.528474349
Brandon Rush -0.558851125
Julian Wright -0.620924215
Mario Chalmers -1.274021011
C.J. Giles -1.445012958
Christian Moody -1.58271208

See why Self is not confident having Mario run the point yet? Disregarding Kleinmann, Vinson, and Case (not enough data to consider this good for them), we see that JHawk is our best ballhandler, and our second best isn't even one of our backup point guards. Hopefully, we'll see turnovers start to decline for our smalls.

I may do some other analyses in this off-time, but I'll definitely do a pre-game analysis of the Nevada game, including an analysis of BOTH teams.

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