Exhibition Games Wrap-up

Time to get ready for the "real" season now. We've played our two "glorified practices" (sorry to use that again) and need to get ready for Idaho St. on Friday. Granted, the exhibition games should not be used as the only basis for judging players' progress, but it is still two games worth of data. Let's look and see how our players stacked up.

For those of you who haven't seen my ratings before, let me give you a brief synopsis of the method. I basically take the boxscore and rate each player for each category. I grade them on a curve though, so CJ's ratings in blocks is not necessarily great if gets 3 bpg, unless that's way better than most players on the team (it probably would be though). In the shooting categories, I use a composite rating that takes into account how well someone shoots and how often they shoot ... in essence, I account for how much that player tends to move KU's percentage away from the team average.

I give weightings to each category to come up with a composite score. The weightings are different depending on whether a player is a small, combo, or big. For example, a small should do well in assists and steals, while a big should excel at rebounds and blocks. One last thing. Througout the season, I also weigh each player's ratings based on per minute, per game, and season totals. But for the purposes of these exhibition games, I'm eliminating season totals and upping the emphasis on per minute. This is to account for the fact that we really don't have any idea who's better at this stage of the game ... i.e., coach hasn't even made up his mind. So, I want to control for the variances in minutes played per game.

The overall rating measures how much and efficiently each player contributes to HIS OWN team's statistics. DO NOT COMPARE player ratings on one team to the other team ... they are ONLY valid as comparison to players on the same team. These ratings can show how balanced a team is, and who its key contributors are. Naturally, it cannot measure things not captured in a boxscore (screens, defensive, leadership, hand in face, etc.).

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at near-average level or better
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays considerably below average
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays considerably below average
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, any G/F, or any G 6-8 or taller
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

Let's take a look at SANZ ratings after Exhibition Game 1 (FHSU):

42.20 Brandon Rush REGULAR
31.34 Sasha Kaun REGULAR
17.48 C.J. Giles REGULAR
13.86 Julian Wright REGULAR
3.41 Jeff Hawkins REGULAR
-0.10 Russell Robinson REGULAR
-4.56 Mario Chalmers ROLE
-8.36 Micah Downs ROLE
-9.61 Jeremy Case Dud
-10.07 Stephen Vinson Dud
-17.29 Matt Kleinmann Scrub
-27.46 Christian Moody Dud

We all know that Rush and Kaun had monster games, and it looks like Brandon had the better game overall. I don't think this list should surprise anyone based on the game statistics. But I'm sure it's disappointing to see Mario as a "role" instead of "regular" player. I'm not going to panic just yet about that. But I will say that my expectations of Chalmers are signficantly below others' ... mainly because of his tendency to take possessions off. Moody had a horrible game and probably will have a higher rating in the season.

Now let's take a look at ratings after Exhibition Game 2 (PSU): (cumulative, not just the second game)

50.35 C.J. Giles REGULAR
30.27 Brandon Rush REGULAR
19.73 Sasha Kaun REGULAR
14.93 Jeff Hawkins REGULAR
9.80 Mario Chalmers REGULAR
-0.30 Darnell Jackson REGULAR
-1.73 Julian Wright REGULAR
-7.27 Stephen Vinson Dud
-10.66 Russell Robinson ROLE
-13.14 Matt Kleinmann Scrub
-13.95 Micah Downs ROLE
-21.70 Christian Moody Dud
-22.31 Jeremy Case Dud

Don't think anyone is surprised to see Giles at the top. Over the two games, he's probably the most consistent performer, especially on a per minute basis. Good to see Chalmers move into a "regular" role, though Russell is now dropped into "role" player status (i.e., he plays a lot of minutes but isn't performing well). Downs has slipped below Kleinmann ... but can you argue against it based on stats? Kleinmann beats Downs in every category except O-Reb, AST, STL, BLK. Of course, Kleinmann's 5 minutes played total makes his per minute stats a little wacky. Jackson makes his debut at around the average level and "regular" status.

How did the PSU game affect player ratings? Let's look at the most significant movers (difference between current rating and rating after first game only):

MOVED UP:
32.87 C.J. Giles
14.36 Mario Chalmers
11.52 Jeff Hawkins

MOVED DOWN:
-15.59 Julian Wright
-12.70 Jeremy Case
-11.93 Brandon Rush
-11.62 Sasha Kaun
-10.56 Russell Robinson

Giles' monster game should explain his giant leap. But Chalmers moved up significantly, despite not that great a game. But he had significant improvement in his FT, 3pt, AST, and STL ... all categories very important to a "small." How did his 3pt rating go up with the same performance against PSU (1-3) as against FHSU? Remember, the ratings are "graded on a curve" so his 1-3 puts him in better shape because the team shot even worse than that.

Why did Julian drop the most? To put it simply, he dropped in every category except 2pt and PTS. That can't be good no matter how you cut it. Look at his boxscore and you'll see lots of fouls, missed FT, 0 AST/STL/BLK, few rebounds ... you name it. Not a great game for him, but I don't expect him to start having great games until around January. He needs the game to flow smoothly to make the biggest difference, and this young team won't be there for a while.

Rush also dropped across most categories. His biggest drops were in O-Reb, T-Reb, 2pt. He performed so well in the first game that it would have been very difficult for him not to drop. Simien and Miles were capable of that last season, but this young team will have too many ups and downs for a star performer to stay up there for long.

Finally, let's look at Kaun. He didn't have a huge drop in any one category, but his most signficant came in BLK, PTS, 2pt ... all important to the "big" position. On an encouraging note, his FT rating shot way up (stats don't know he banked the first one in!) and his STL rating is way up. But those aren't terribly important to a "big" in my ratings system.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

My system would argue for a starting lineup of Chalmers, Hawkins, Rush, Giles, and Kaun. You know, that actually doesn't sound bad, except that we'd lose a lot of size when subbing in for Giles and Kaun. I'd rather have only one of them out there most of the time, with a Wright or Jackson to complement.

As you would expect early, the sophomores are leading the team, at least in exhibition games. Rush's one stellar game was enough to keep him up there, but it's really Giles, Kaun, and Hawkins' team right now. If Moody can't be a contributor against Div-II opponents, I'm not sure he's going to do it against Arizona, et al. His position at the bottom of the pack is very disappointing. I really hope Self starts utilizing him only as a backup. If Moody starts many more games and has this level of contribution, we're doomed.

Don't worry about Downs, IMO. The first two games for a freshman shooter are not enough to judge. He is a silky smooth shooter. It will come around, and when it does, he will lodge himself in the "regular' category somewhere around average or a little above. Keep in mind what we need him for ... deep threat, scorer. I think he'll be fine.

I'm excited about Giles and Kaun being the scoring leaders in our first two games. We were all worried about where our inside scoring would come from. This is a sign that they will step up. Against stiffer competition, we'll see ... but this was encouraging.

My only concern is that Russell is struggling again. Other than lots of assists and few turnovers, he hasn't done anything else on paper. He's shooting terribly, few steals, low scoring. Self believes he's the best perimeter player so far, so I'm going to see what happens when the regular season starts. And again, as with Downs, I'll give players a longer stretch of games before worrying that their shooting is off. Russell's AST:TO ratio is comforting, especially given that it was the reason he sat most of the second half of last season. I suspect he'll come around.

Hope you guys enjoyed this analysis. They won't usually be this long, but I needed to explain some stuff about the system, set up my expectations for the season, etc. As always, comments/ thoughts are appreciated (and expected!) ...

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