Kansas Jayhawks Season Preview 2005-06

Well, I think it's fair to say that I am preaching to the choir when I say, "Let the season begin!"

Sorry I've been away for so long, but this summer/fall has been extremely busy for me ... certain ring going on a certain finger of my hand ... but I've most certainly followed recruiting, off-season issues, etc, extremely closely. And I can't remember a season with so many question marks AND exclamation points as we enter exhibition season. With that said, let's move on to what I like to do most ... analysis, numbers, previews, etc.

This is the first of two posts I'll be making. In this one, I'll provide some of my thoughts about the upcoming season. In the second, I'll show an analysis of the FHSU exhibition game and plug in rankings to take a look at player ratings. They won't count for the regular season, but maybe it can begin to provide some sense of who's doing how much.

WHERE WE LEFT OFF

Here's where we ended last season in terms of player rankings. Remember, my rankings are a way of measuring players compared to other players on their own team, not across teams. A rating of "0" represents, in theory, the average player. I adjust for whether the player is a small, big, or combo, when I weight their statistics. And I only use boxscore statistics. So, I can't take into account whether a player is good at setting screens, tough on defense without stealing, etc.

SANZ Ratings at end of 2004-05:

Rank Player Rating Min/Gm
1 Wayne Simien 66.16 .......... 34.31
2 Aaron Miles 48.18 .......... 33.07
3 C.J. Giles 11.52 .......... 8.29
4 Keith Langford 11.39 .......... 30.96
5 J.R. Giddens 6.11 .......... 27.70
6 Christian Moody 1.95 .......... 22.59
7 Michael Lee 0.09 .......... 17.47
8 Russell Robinson -0.27 .......... 10.13
9 Alex Galindo -2.14 .......... 9.96
10 Jeff Hawkins -2.87 .......... 8.29
11 Sasha Kaun -3.06 .......... 10.00
12 Darnell Jackson -6.73 .......... 7.00
13 Nick Bahe -11.13 .......... 3.82
14 Moulaye Niang -16.40 .......... 4.31
15 Stephen Vinson -23.53 .......... 3.00

So, we lost our top two stars, and 5 of our top 7 players. Not that this is news to anyone. But it does mean we have no idea who our stars and top players will be this year. My guess is that we'll see a more even distribution of ratings in the top 5 positions. There may be 1 or 2 ahead of the pack a bit, but not the way Aaron and Wayne were last season.

2005-06 SEASON PREVIEW: THE PHOENIX JAYHAWKS??

Don't panic, Lew hasn't announced the relocation of our beloved team. I'm just referring to the bird ... the phoenix ... you know, the one that rose from the ashes? That's us. That school we don't like to hear the name of ... the one that beat us in the first round ... they just happened to be our first round opponent. I wouldn't be surprised if any low seed had beaten us that night. Our team was not good. Period.

Time for a fresh start. New faces. New blood. Hopefully more of our opponents' than our own. (Enter stage left: Julian, Mario, Brandon, Micah, Rod. Exit stage right: Poor team chemistry, one-dimensional players, stabbings, significant ties to old regime.)

Here's what I think of the upcoming season with regards to our players and our overall team prospects. My thoughts are just my opinions, so take them with a mammoth-sized chunk of salt.

JULIAN WRIGHT - Projected Starter. If this guy lives up to expectations, then we won't be seeing him for long around here, but we will enjoy the ride. I expect Julian to take some time before contributing heavily. Why? He's the kind of guy who is best "in the flow" of the game. And I expect our flow to be very uneven for a while. It will be a synergistic growth between Julian and the team. He will create opportunities, and at first his teammates will be surprised, bobble it, maybe not even be there for the pass. But they'll learn. And once they do, Julian will be pushed to do more. He'll deliver. I expect somewhere around Christmas for some people to say that Julian has underachieved. And around February, some people will start saying that he'll be drafted after this season. Rebounding, defense, intensity, great passing. That's what I expect from him.

BRANDON RUSH - Projected Starter. First of all, he's a few years older than other freshmen, so we don't have to wait for him to come around physically. You saw what he's capable of in the FHSU game (at least against a Div II foe). The biggest determinant of his season, I believe, is whether he plays with a purpose, and what that purpose is. His purpose better be to help KU win. If not, we could end up with a Rashad McCants type of player (before he shaped up last season). My guess is that he will be very focused, but just not the consummate team player. Not a problem, just not your Kirk Hinrich or Jacque Vaughn type. Scoring, rebounding, occasional 3-pt effectiveness ... that's what I expect.

C.J. GILES - Projected Starter. We all know he has talent. He was the #3 player on the team last year according to my rankings. His problem is just staying in the game long enough. I think he will player longer than last year (and better) but still with lots of foul trouble. Think Nick Collison as a sophomore. C.J.'s got game though. He's developed a bit of a mid-range game, bulked up, and has a year of experience. When he's available, C.J. will be our best interior player, especially on defense. C.J., please watch those fouls! Blocks, rebounds, and about 9 ppg are my expectations.

MARIO CHALMERS - Projected Starter. The prototypical combo guard we've all been talking about ever since Self came on board. Mario will help us settle the argument about whether Self can coach better when he has his type of players. But his weak competition in Alaska may have left him ill-prepared (and us ready for disappointment). His performance in the McDonald's AA game should put to rest any doubt about whether he CAN perform. But his occasionally lapses in energy should make us ask whether he WILL perform. Definitely better in March than in December. But Mario will come around ... he has to. I expect him to be one of three significant 3-pt threats on the team (Micah, JHawk). If he adds double figure scoring, 3-4 apg, and limits turnovers, he's met my expectations. I don't expect as much from him as others do.

RUSSELL ROBINSON - Projected Starter. Self calls him "the best perimeter player since practice began." That's enough for me. Russell appears to be on a mission. With some added strength, newfound confidence, and incredible work ethic, he is ready to become the guard we all envisioned when he signed on. I expect Russell to excel on defense, make plays (4 apg), provide some scoring (8 ppg), and earn some trips to the FT line with penetration.

SASHA KAUN - Regular Rotation. Attending Pete Newell's camp seems to be mentioned everywhere, but regardless of the reason, the most significant thing I read was a quote from him about how "the game doesn't seem to move as fast anymore." He looked slow out there at times last season. We know he has good size and physical presence. Now that he has a handle on the game, we can expect steady improvement. The key will be whether he can provide solid defense, rebounding, and get open on the hi-lo offense. My guess is yes, and because Giles will be in foul trouble often, he will play signficant minutes (if not more than Giles). This will be his coming out year. Don't be surprised if he challenges for the starting center spot.

MICAH DOWNS - Regular Rotation. Smooth shooter, difficult size matchup. With that combination, he has the potential to be a star. What we all worried about was his reputation as cocky and maybe selfish. Doesn't sound like he brought that rep with him to KU. So, I would expect that he'll go as far as his work ethic and defense take him. Because this team needs shooters, he will get that chance. I expect Micah to lead the team in 3-pt percentage, score about 7 ppg. He won't be an all-around contributor though. Don't expect a very high rating in my system, as I expect him to be somewhat one-dimensional this season. I hope I'm wrong!

CHRISTIAN MOODY - Regular Rotation. Maybe not on the stat sheet, but in my mind, he could be our MVP. He's our most experienced player on the team, with the kind of attitude and work ethic that should be modeled by all of our players. If all of our young players model themselves after him, their talent would push them into stardom. Moody will be an important "glue" factor this season, especially if we have injuries or foul trouble. When he's in the game, I hope we have at least one other physical big guy (i.e., not just Julian). In any event, we know what to expect from Christian ... 7-9 ppg, 4-6 rpg, solid "dirty work", leadership.

JEFF HAWKINS - Regular Rotation. You gotta hand it to the guy for coming around from where he started. Hawkins is now a reliable defender, decent shooter, and considered a steady force capable of good decision-making. I much prefer having our young guys in there, but if we're in a tight spot, I like having Hawkins there as a more experienced presence. I expect him to play solid defense, make about 1 3fg per game, and calm us down in late-game situations.

NON-REGULARS:

RODRICK STEWART - He could be in the regular rotation if JHawk or Micah are injured or fail to deliver. He would be an athletic defensive presence, but not much of a contributor on offense from what I can tell.

JEREMY CASE - I really hope Case proves us all wrong, but he is only a sophomore. So anything he provides is a bonus this season. If he can shoot, he could be a specialty sub when we need a quick 3. But we have a couple of other options for this. Unless he plays stellar during his scrub time, I just can't see him earning more minutes this season.

DARNELL JACKSON - Don't even know about his eligibility right now. If he plays, he'll be a physical presence with 5 fouls. If he shows me something else, I'll change my opinion. He had brief flashes last season, but just not consistent.

OVERALL TEAM PROSPECTS:

Maui will likely humble this team ... a lot. Expect one, probably two losses there. We will probably respond to it and use our home schedule to become respectable by January once again. I expect us to have 2 losses by the time we face Kentucky in January. We'll probably even be ranked somewhere around #18-25. Don't expect to beat Kentucky, though. And expect some conference losses until we finally start to gel. I expect a conference record of about 10-6, with at least one home loss. That means we'll have 9 losses when the Big 12 tourney starts (10 when the committee meets). That figures to about a #5-6 seed. But we'll be playing our best at the end, so we could get to the sweet 16. Unless there's an upset ahead of us, I don't figure to beat a Duke or Michigan State in the tourney, not with all our freshmen. We're rising from the ashes, but we don't leave the ashtray until next season. But I'll tell you what ... I'm really going to enjoy the ride.

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