Preview: Pepperdine at Kansas

Kansas vs. Pepperdine (Lawrence, KS)

***** TALENT INDICATORS *****
Div I Records: KU (3-4) - PEP (2-6)
RPI: KU (#102) - PEP (#181)
Sagarin Power Ranking: KU (#40) - PEP (#203)
Pomeroy Power Ranking: KU (#92) - PEP (#193)

Best games this season: (RPI)
KU - vs Idaho St (#121) W90-66, vs California (#149) W69-56
PEP - vs UC-Irvine (#157) W79-76

***** PREDICTIONS *****
Vegas oddsmakers - KU by 17.5
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) - KU by 17.5


***** INTERESTING STATS *****
- PEP gives up 10 more pts in the 2nd half than they do in the 1st
- PEP takes on 13 3FG's per game and makes only 28% of them, both significantly lower than the NCAA average
- Both teams are poor at the FT line (both around 65%)
- PEP gets outblocked by 3 per game, while KU outblocks its opponent by almost 4
- In the last 5 games, KU is shooting 40% on 3FG's but only 61% at the FT line

My statistical analysis of the two teams' players. The SANZ rating measures how much and efficiently each player contributes to HIS OWN team's statistics. DO NOT COMPARE player ratings on one team to the other team ... they are ONLY valid as comparison to players on the same team. These ratings can show how balanced a team is, and who its key contributors are. Naturally, it cannot measure things not captured in a boxscore (screens, defensive, leadership, hand in face, etc.).

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at near-average level or better
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays considerably below average
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays considerably below average
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS rotation (9 Deep = 8 Regular + 1 Role)
26.74 REGULAR Brandon Rush
25.60 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
23.13 REGULAR C.J. Giles
10.84 REGULAR Julian Wright
5.18 REGULAR Micah Downs
4.13 REGULAR Stephen Vinson
0.34 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
-0.69 REGULAR Russell Robinson
-6.14 Scrub Matt Kleinmann
-10.42 Scrub Jeremy Case
-16.68 ROLE Jeff Hawkins
-17.65 Dud Christian Moody


PEPPERDINE (Rotation = 8 Deep = 6 Regular + 2 Role)
43.84 REGULAR Combo Tashaan Forehan-Kelly
39.22 REGULAR Small Michael Gerrity
16.78 REGULAR Big Chris Oakes
14.35 REGULAR Big Jarrad Henry
11.14 REGULAR Small Chase Griffin
5.68 REGULAR Small Gregg Barlow
-3.88 ROLE Big Willie Galick
-5.07 ROLE Big Derick Grubb
-5.80 Dud Combo Tomas Pranciliaskas
-12.19 Dud Small Marvin Lea
-18.54 Dud Combo Cody Horning
-21.06 Dud Small Kingsley Costain
-26.25 Dud Combo Keith Jarbo



Analysis: (largely based on ratings above)

On paper, Pepperdine's contributions are really from only two players, both guards: Forehan-Kelly and Gerrity. With only 6 players who are playing above team average, they aren't the deepest bunch either. Henry, a Kansas native, presents the only real physical challenge inside (6-11, 245). So, look for Pepperdine to struggle big time on offense, since their 3FG's don't usually drop.

Kansas comes off one of its better games of the year, though by traditional standards, still nothing to write home about. KU's attack has come from Rush, Giles and either Kaun or Wright (depending upon whether you look at the First 4 games or Last 4). The freshmen are really beginning to turn things on now. Rush has been potent all year, but Wright and Downs have really come on strong of late.

PEP's offense is no match for KU's defense from an efficiency standpoint. If there's any battle, it will be when KU has the ball. KU's adjusted offensive efficiency is ranked #93, while PEP's adj def eff is #139. Barlow can steal the ball pretty well (1.4 spg). But it will be a long night inside for them, as Grubb and Henry are the only players who even weigh more than 230.

Both teams play a similar tempo, not too fast and not too slow.

My personal prediction: KU wins 81-58.

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:
1) KU should concentrate on scoring from the inside to use height advantage (Kaun/Giles at least 25 combined FGA)
2) KU should crash the offensive glass against undersized PEP (KU gets 40% of available offensive rebounds)
3) Limit offensive mistakes by KU (Limit TO's to 13 or fewer)

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