Preview: Northern Colorado at Kansas

Kansas vs. Northern Colorado (Lawrence, KS)

***** TALENT INDICATORS *****
Div I Records: KU (4-4) - NOCOL (0-13)
RPI: KU (#109) - NOCOL (#327)
Sagarin Power Ranking: KU (#82) - NOCOL (#326)
Pomeroy Power Ranking: KU (#39) - NOCOL (#324)

Best games this season: (RPI)
KU - vs Idaho St (#121) W90-66, vs California (#138) W69-56
NOCOL - vs Colorado St (#36) L70-57

***** PREDICTIONS *****
Vegas oddsmakers - No line
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) - KU by 27.5
Pomeroy Ratings - KU by 31


***** INTERESTING STATS *****
- NOCOL's opponents take only 24.5% of their shots from behind the arc (well below NCAA avg)
- Even though KU's opponents shoot only 35.8%, they are shooting fairly well from three-point land at 32.9%
- At home, KU outrebounds its opponents by 8 rpg

My statistical analysis of the two teams' players. The SANZ and eSANZ ratings measure how much and efficiently each player contributes to HIS OWN team's statistics. DO NOT COMPARE player ratings on one team to the other team ... they are ONLY valid as comparison to players on the same team. These ratings can show how balanced a team is, and who its key contributors are. Naturally, it cannot measure things not captured in a boxscore (screens, defensive, leadership, hand in face, etc.).

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at near-average level or better
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays considerably below average
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays considerably below average
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6'3" or smaller 
Combo = Any Guard at least 6'4", or any Forward 6'7" or less, or any player listed as "G/F"
Big = Center or any Forward 6'8" or taller that doesn't meet criteria for Combo

KANSAS* rotation (10 Deep = 8 Regular + 2 Role)
26.83 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
25.66 REGULAR Brandon Rush
15.02 REGULAR Julian Wright
13.50 REGULAR C.J. Giles
4.63 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
0.46 REGULAR Micah Downs
0.03 REGULAR Russell Robinson
-1.08 REGULAR Stephen Vinson
-18.86 ROLE Jeff Hawkins
-24.12 ROLE Christian Moody

*NOTE: For Kansas ratings ONLY, recent games and games against better opponents are weighted more heavily. 


PEPPERDINE (Rotation = 9 Deep = 6 Regular + 3 Role)
29.49 REGULAR Small Sean Taibi
25.41 REGULAR Combo Erik Olson
17.88 REGULAR Big Kirk Archibeque
14.34 REGULAR Combo Michael Gordy
8.72 REGULAR Small Thanasi Panagiotakopoulos
3.75 REGULAR Big Cory Lowe
-2.52 ROLE Small Darren Jefferies
-4.36 Dud Combo Dorian McDaniel
-15.71 ROLE Small Matt Kline
-18.35 Dud Small Jared Lewis
-22.10 ROLE Combo Dwayne Birden


Analysis: (largely based on ratings above)

This will be a very basic analysis, because this game is so lopsided on paper.

Taibi, Olson, and Archibeque are the biggest threats on NOCOL's team. Taibi and Olson are 3FG sharpshooters, though neither is a prolific scorer by any stretch. Archibeque is their big rebounder. Archibeque and Lowe, the only two bigs of consequence, are only 6-9 but appear to be strong. So, it will be up to Giles and Kaun to use their height advantage to overcome getting pushed around. The return of Darnell Jackson may be very helpful to bang with those guys and soften them up on defense for KU's inside game to come around. NOCOL's opponents don't take too many 3FG's, so it will be up to our inside game to come through here. Let's see if we can make more of the chip shots this time around.

The tempo of the game should be predictable, as both teams play a similar tempo (mid-range). NOCOL's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (points per possession) are both ranked near #300. So, KU's #95 offense should score somewhat easily, and KU's #5 defense should clamp down tight on NOCOL's scoring.

My personal prediction: KU cruises 89-50.

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:
Skipped: Not worth thinking about in this game.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy