Preview: Nevada at Kansas

Kansas vs. Nevada (Lawrence, KS)

***** TALENT INDICATORS *****
Div I Records: KU (1-2) - UN (3-0)
RPI: KU (#142) - UN (#8)
Polls/Power Ranking Concensus: KU (#45) - UN (#22)

Best games this season: (RPI)
KU - vs Arizona (#46) L61-49 
UN - @ UNLV (#37) W68-61, @ Vermont (#61) - W77-62

***** PREDICTIONS *****
Vegas oddsmakers - KU by 4
Concensus Power Ratings - UN by 1


***** INTERESTING STATS *****
- UN plays much faster 2nd halves than 1st (teams combine for 61 pts in 1st half vs 80 pts in 2nd half)
- UN shoots 49% FG, but KU only allows 35% FG
- KU shoots nearly 10 pct points lower than the NCAA average of 33.8% from downtown
- UN averages nearly 7 more freethrow attempts than its opponents, while KU gets outshot at the FT line by almost 5
- KU holds its opponents' AST:TO ratio to 0.48, far below the NCAA average of 0.84 (and UN's avg of 0.78)
- Both teams shoot significantly fewer 3pt shots as a pct of their total FG's than the NCAA average

My statistical analysis of the two teams' players. The SANZ rating measures how much and efficiently each player contributes to HIS OWN team's statistics. DO NOT COMPARE player ratings on one team to the other team ... they are ONLY valid as comparison to players on the same team. These ratings can show how balanced a team is, and who its key contributors are. Naturally, it cannot measure things not captured in a boxscore (screens, defensive, leadership, hand in face, etc.).

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at near-average level or better
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays considerably below average
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays considerably below average
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS (Rotation = 9 Deep = 8 Regular + 1 Role)
36.56 Sasha Kaun REGULAR
25.22 Brandon Rush REGULAR
18.46 C.J. Giles REGULAR
16.72 Mario Chalmers REGULAR
4.61 Julian Wright REGULAR
4.25 Matt Kleinmann Scrub
1.13 Russell Robinson REGULAR
-1.82 Stephen Vinson REGULAR
-2.87 Micah Downs REGULAR
-17.45 Christian Moody Dud
-17.58 Jeff Hawkins ROLE
-21.35 Jeremy Case Scrub

Nevada (Rotation = 8 Deep = 6 Regular + 2 Role)
48.55 REGULAR Big Nick Fazekas
26.12 REGULAR Combo Marcelus Kemp
21.18 REGULAR Combo Mo Charlo
14.64 REGULAR Small Kyle Shiloh
1.63 REGULAR Small Lyndale Burleson
-2.10 REGULAR Big Demarshay Johnson
-3.13 ROLE Big Chad Bell
-12.46 ROLE Small Ramon Sessions
-15.10 Scrub Small Seth Taylor
-16.36 Dud Big David Ellis
-25.02 Dud Combo Denis Ikovlev

Analysis:

KU comes back to Allen Fieldhouse after a humbling experience in Maui. At least for now, talent is being overshadowed by youth and inexperience. But expect the tables to start turning soon.

Tonight is a great test against a formidable opponent. Nevada brings an undefeated record and an experienced upperclassman (Fazekas) into Lawrence, along with a #20 AP ranking.

Having not seen Nevada play this season, I can only go based on the statistical data. So, I welcome comments from others who know more about the team than just "on paper."

Nevada's star is obviously Fazekas, at 6-11 and 230 lbs, a formidable one. Believe it or not, at 18 ppg, he's not even their leading scorer. That would be Kemp, a 6-5 combo player. In fact, most of Nevada's scoring comes from the trio ranked the highest above. If at least two of these three players have strong games, that would make life tough for the Jayhawks. Nevada appears to be a team that relies more on its frontline, as evidenced by their leading scorers and their aversity to shooting the 3pt FG (much like KU). If their 3pt shots start falling, their strong frontline will have a field day.

Nevada's top 3 players all shoot very well at the FT line. If they start getting hacked by Giles and Kaun, it could be an even longer night for KU.

KU has a more evenly distributed player ranking, with only one "role" player in the 9-man rotation. Of course, the fact that Hawkins is also a starter makes things interesting. Nonetheless, KU's strength appears to be its inside game also. KU is blocking a ridiculously high number of shots per game, and the guys who do it (Giles, Kaun, Wright) need to be available to make it happen. We may see two very similar teams on the court tonight, except that KU's backcourt has some unrealized potential (Chalmers, Downs) that could turn things around. But they have to step up.

This is not an easy game for KU by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, anywhere but in Allen Fieldhouse, I'd give the edge to Nevada. But I just have to figure that KU will show up with some fire after the tough losses in Hawaii.

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:
1) Only one of the main three (Fazekas, Kemp, Charlo) should score over 18 points.
2) Kaun and Giles must stay out of foul trouble to play enough minutes against a strong frontline (at least 50 minutes combined)
3) KU cannot allow UN to make a significant number of three's to open up the inside (hold UN to <=4 3FG made)

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