Preview: Kansas vs Saint Joseph's (New York, NY)

Kansas vs. St. Joseph's (New York, NY)

***** TALENT INDICATORS *****
Div I Records: KU (2-3) - SJU (3-1)
RPI: KU (#141) - SJU (#108)
Polls/Power Ranking Concensus: KU (#45) - SJU (#39)

Best games this season: (RPI)
KU - vs Nevada (#24) L72-70
SJU - Drexel (#101) W69-59

***** PREDICTIONS *****
Vegas oddsmakers - KU by 2.5
Sagarin Power Ratings - SJU by 3.5


***** INTERESTING STATS *****
- SJU outscores opponents in the 1st half by 10.8 but in the 2nd half by only 5.3
- SJU shoots 49% FG, but KU only allows 35% FG
- SJU does an excellent job on offensive rebounds, grabbing 45% of available rebounds on the offensive end (KU only gets 36%)
- KU holds its opponents' AST:TO ratio to 0.62, far below the NCAA average of 0.85 (and SJU's avg of 1.2)
- SJU's opponents take a significantly higher than average number of their FG from 3-pt (39.5%) but KU only takes 26.8% of its shots from behind the arc

My statistical analysis of the two teams' players. The SANZ rating measures how much and efficiently each player contributes to HIS OWN team's statistics. DO NOT COMPARE player ratings on one team to the other team ... they are ONLY valid as comparison to players on the same team. These ratings can show how balanced a team is, and who its key contributors are. Naturally, it cannot measure things not captured in a boxscore (screens, defensive, leadership, hand in face, etc.).

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at near-average level or better
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays considerably below average
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays considerably below average
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS (Rotation = 9 Deep = 7 Regular + 2 Role)
37.47 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
25.48 REGULAR Brandon Rush
23.50 REGULAR C.J. Giles
12.91 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
2.42 REGULAR Stephen Vinson
1.07 REGULAR Julian Wright
0.03 REGULAR Micah Downs
-1.70 ROLE Russell Robinson
-3.75 Scrub Matt Kleinmann
-10.13 Scrub Jeremy Case
-10.57 Dud Christian Moody
-22.79 ROLE Jeff Hawkins


ST. JOSEPH'S (Rotation = 7 Deep = 6 Regular + 1 Role)
40.96 REGULAR Combo Chet Stachitas
31.05 REGULAR Big Rob Ferguson
24.06 REGULAR Big Ahmad Nivins
23.61 REGULAR Small Abdulai Jalloh
22.39 REGULAR Small Dwayne Lee
16.95 Scrub Small Pete Kathopoulis
13.50 REGULAR Big Dave Mallon
-5.10 Scrub Small Rob Sullivan
-6.34 Dud Big Artur Surov
-6.75 ROLE Combo Pat Calathes
-9.74 Dud Combo Jordan Fowler
-20.97 Scrub Combo Edwin Lashley
-22.83 Scrub Big Arvydas Lidzius
-22.87 Scrub Big Alvin Mofunanya
-28.17 Scrub Combo Marcus Mitchell

Analysis:

It's getting harder and harder to make excuses. We're young. No talented upperclassmen. Hard to figure out which lineups are best. These may well be true, but the bottom line to many fans is that we're 3-3 (5-8 over the last 13 games). We figured it'd be a rough ride this season, but boy is this tough to swallow.

Now, games that were considered probable victories turn out to be "hope we win" games. Case in point, the St. Joseph's game. SJU comes in with a 3-1 record (OT road loss to Davidson) and a decent power rating on some sites. Somehow, KU is favored, but that's partially attributable to people being more likely to bet on KU.

SJU's ratings indicate a thin team (only 7 deep), but one with a mix of upper and lowerclassmen. Stachitas is a combo senior, their deadliest 3pt shooter and leads the team in scoring, as well as in my composite rankings. Ferguson and Nivins are big and young (SO/FR). Despite a thin quality rotation (remember, my ratings indicate that Surov and Fowler are not quality contributors), SJU's talent appears rather evenly spread, as evidenced by somewhat similar ratings amongst them all.

SJU is one of the absolute slowest paced teams in Div I (ranked #324), but they are extremely efficient on offense (ranked #9 in efficiency). On the other hand, KU is ranked #14 on defensive efficiency. That's where this game will likely hinge. KU will likely score somewhere in the low to mid 60's, but it's dependent on the matchup of SJU's offense and KU's defense to see who wins.

The bulk of their offense runs through Stachitas, Jalloh, and Lee ... all perimeter types of players. So, the KU perimeter defenders will be key (Hawkins, Robinson, Rush, Chalmers, Downs). Rush may be on the deadly shooter Stachitas ... we'll see if Brandon is up for the challenge. But one of the reasons for SJU's offensive efficiency could be their propensity for offensive rebounds, which makes KU's rebounding of paramount importance.

KU goes 9 deep (but only one more "regular" than SJU). So, if this game is called tightly, it may be an advantage for KU and its depth. Although, SJU has a freakishly high 85% FT average.

The inside battle should also be interesting, as Ferguson and Nivins are slighly outsized by Giles and Kaun (6-8 and 6-9 vs 6-11). This may be a game where Wright won't be overmatched at the 4 position.

But KU's offense (#145 efficiency) won't necessarily have an easy time scoring against SJU's defense (#66 efficiency). That's why this game's outcome ultimately will rest upon the KU defense and rebounding. Time to see if Self's desire for KU to be that gritty team can come true. I think it will.

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:
1) KU should control the defensive glass (D-Reb = at least 66% of (KU-DReb + SJU-OReb)
2) KU should limit SJU to 2FG% of 45% and 3FG% of 30%.
3) Given SJU's tendency to outscore opponents much better in the 1st half, KU must stay within 5 points at halftime.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy