Preview: Kansas vs California

Kansas vs. California (Kansas City, MO)

***** TALENT INDICATORS *****
Div I Records: KU (2-4) - CAL (6-1)
RPI: KU (#154) - CAL (#76)
Sagarin Power Ranking: KU (#105) - CAL (#119)
Pomeroy Power Ranking: KU (#53) - CAL (#61)

Best games this season: (RPI)
KU - vs Nevada (#36) L72-70
CAL - vs Northeastern (#27) W83-76

***** PREDICTIONS *****
Vegas oddsmakers - KU by 2.5
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) - KU by 8.5


***** INTERESTING STATS *****
- CAL shoots twice as many (24 vs 12) FT's as opponents, while KU attempts fewer than opponents (20 vs 21)
- CAL shoots 49% FG, but KU only allows 37% FG
- CAL has a very high AST:TO ratio of 1.42 (well above NCAA avg of 0.86)
- KU averages 7 blocks per game, while CAL only allows 2.4
- SJU's opponents take a significantly higher than average number of their FG from 3-pt (39%) but KU only takes 29% of its shots from behind the arc

My statistical analysis of the two teams' players. The SANZ rating measures how much and efficiently each player contributes to HIS OWN team's statistics. DO NOT COMPARE player ratings on one team to the other team ... they are ONLY valid as comparison to players on the same team. These ratings can show how balanced a team is, and who its key contributors are. Naturally, it cannot measure things not captured in a boxscore (screens, defensive, leadership, hand in face, etc.).

Regular = Plays at least 5 mpg and plays at near-average level or better
Role = Plays at least 15 mpg but plays considerably below average
Dud = Plays 5-15 mpg, but plays considerably below average
Scrub = Plays < 5 mpg

Small = Guard 6-3 or smaller
Combo = Any player between 6-4 and 6-7, or any G 6-8 or taller, anyone who meets criteria for Small and Big
Big = Any F 6-8 or taller, or any C

KANSAS rotation (9 Deep = 8 Regular + 1 Role)
34.15 REGULAR Sasha Kaun
24.85 REGULAR Brandon Rush
13.04 REGULAR C.J. Giles
11.86 REGULAR Mario Chalmers
7.89 REGULAR Julian Wright
2.37 REGULAR Russell Robinson
1.57 REGULAR Micah Downs
0.92 REGULAR Stephen Vinson
-3.16 Scrub Matt Kleinmann
-11.66 Scrub Jeremy Case
-12.35 Dud Christian Moody
-15.76 ROLE Jeff Hawkins


CALIFORNIA (Rotation = 9 Deep = 7 Regular + 2 Role)
40.67 REGULAR Big DeVon Hardin
38.94 REGULAR Big Leon Powe
36.77 REGULAR Small Richard Midgley
13.25 REGULAR Small Ayinde Ubaka
7.74 REGULAR Big Rod Benson
6.56 REGULAR Small Omar Wilkes
1.05 REGULAR Small Martin Smith
-8.10 ROLE Combo Theo Robertson
-11.54 Scrub Combo Ivan Kovacevic
-15.35 ROLE Big Jordan Wilkes
-17.26 Dud Combo Alex Pribble
-19.99 Dud Combo Steve Panawek
-22.75 Dud Combo Eric Vierneisel


Analysis: (largely based on ratings above)

Another game against an opponent that many consider dangerous but isn't one of the elite in the country. Enough to make it a lose-lose proposition as far as naysayers are concerned. If KU loses: "KU continues its horrible downward spiral." If KU wins: "KU beat Cal? Wake me up when we beat someone real."

Power rankings would agree with the latter statement. California may have a sparkling record and two players that have been talked up a lot this past week (Powe and our ex-teammate Omar Wilkes), but they haven't beaten anyone worth anything. And their one loss was against (gulp) Eastern Michigan. California is NOT an opponent we should lose to. In Kemper. Or anywhere. But who knows the way we've been playing ...

California's main contributors are its two bigs, Hardin and Powe, along with the senior guard Midgley. Ubaka does a lot, too, but he turns it over way too much and doesn't shoot very efficiently. Hardin is an excellent blocker but weaker at the FT line than most of his teammates. He and the rest of Cal sure do get to the FT line a lot ... twice as often as their opponents. And they convert well there at 72% (NCAA avg is 68%).

Powe is really the guy we should be worried out. A prototypical power forward at 6-8, 245 lbs, he could really hurt us inside, especially without Darnell in their to bang with him. The only thing keeping Powe from being the star of the ratings for his team is his lower FT rating. But even that, I'd take over what we get from Kaun and Giles at the line. Powe has been the real deal so far ... against very weak competition. KU has had a tendency to give up big games to the opposing team's stars, so shutting him down will be crucial. So far Cal's opponents have managed to block only 2.4 shots a game, most likely meaning they haven't faced strong frontcourts yet. This will be a good test for our big guys. But probably a better test for Powe and Hardin.

Omar has gotten some good press, but his numbers only reflect a mediocre contribution to his team thus far.

Cal plays a bit slower than KU does (Tempo rank #180 vs KU's #126). Based on efficiency ratings, KU's defense should be able to contain Cal's offense. The closer battle will be between KU's offense and Cal's defense, with an edge to Cal's defense. Can KU limit its turnovers, care about each possession, and make enough perimeter shots to keep the defense honest?

KU is not as top heavy in its player ratings. Kaun and Rush stand out a bit, but really it's anyone guess who will have a strong game. Given the strength of Cal's frontcourt, my guess is that one of KU's backcourt players will have the strongest game, most likely Rush. If Kaun or Giles has a very strong game, we'll probably be in very good shape as it will mean he's not in foul trouble and is probably overpowering their frontcourt.

My personal prediction: KU wins 79-72

Pre-Game Proposed Keys to Victory:
1) Keep Powe in check: no more than 20 pts and 8 rebounds (i.e., not a HUGE game)
2) KU needs an efficient offense to win the more crucial battle: AST:TO ratio of 1.25 or above
3) Hate to say this one: limit Jeff Hawkins' minutes to 20 or less.

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