Analysis: What happened against Bradley?

July 16, 2006

It has been quite some time since the debacle that was KU's second straight first-round Tourney loss. To be honest, as a Jayhawk fan, I simply couldn't bring myself to look into this game much until now.

You can see the statistical recap of the game here, complete with the PSAN and cPSAN ratings showing who contributed to the game. So, what happened to send KU packing once again? Let's take a look at a few numbers (just for the sake of this website's name):

Advantages and Disadvantages

Going into the game, there were a number of factors that were clearly in KU's favor and maybe one that was against. They were shown in the "efficiency preview" for the game here. Let's look at them one at a time, along with the game result:

Supposed Advantages for Kansas:

Bradley eFG% - Shot 54.8 eFG% ... pretty impressive
Bradley FT rate - Took 30 FT's to KU's 19
Bradley TO rate - Was supposed to be a problem for both teams, but KU struggled a bit more (16 vs 18)
Bradley 3FG% - Sizzling 52.4%
Bradley 2FG% - Lone bright spot for KU, holding BU to 38.7%
Bradley Shots Blocked - A whopping 1 block from the wing, Brandon Rush

Supposed Advantage for Bradley:

Kansas TO rate - Slightly worse for KU than for BU (18 vs 16)

So, it's pretty clear that, as a team, KU didn't capitalize on any of its strengths going into the game. They did hold the Braves to a low 2FG%, but when you allow 52.4% from the outside ... well, maybe it would have been better to shut down the shots that only give the opponent two points.

Player Performances - Unusually Good/Bad

Another aspect we can examine is how players performed relative to their expected level. One way is to examine each player's cPSAN70 game rating compared to the rating they averaged for the season coming into the game. The cPSAN70 allows for comparison between games and across teams, while adjusting for playing time.

Here's a look at the difference between each player's cPSAN70 (ePSAN70 for KU, weighing recent games more) score for this game vs their season average prior:

Kansas Jayhawks

PLAYER	Pregame ePSAN70	Game cPSAN70	Difference
Julian Wright	4.59	4.96	0.37
Jeff Hawkins	2.88	2.95	0.07
Russell Robinson	3.48	2.52	-0.96
Darnell Jackson	3.43	0.85	-2.58
Sasha Kaun	4.5	1.54	-2.96
C.J. Giles	3.46	-0.13	-3.59
Mario Chalmers	5.24	0.89	-4.35
Stephen Vinson	0.2	-4.25	-4.45
Brandon Rush	3.4	-2.87	-6.27

Analysis: Not only did Julian Wright perform the best among KU players, he also did best relative to expectations. The only other player to perform at least to expectations was senior Jeff Hawkins. This game's biggest disappointments were Rush and Chalmers, two players who were vying for MVP honors for most of the season. Although Rush was eventually awarded the MVP for the season, his stats really tailed off in the 2nd half of the season. The final season ePSAN rankings will show his eventual placement (not consistent with an MVP, that's for sure). Chalmers is the kind of player who can make or break his team. He's all over the place, stealing, shooting long-range shots, and zipping passes. But each of those are behaviors that can really turn the game around in a bad way when he's off. And this game, he was off until the very end, when he made a push with some last-minute efforts. Robinson didn't have a bad game, but when pretty much all the stars are struggling, you need a few solid players to have good games. And Russell had too many ineffective moments.

Bradley Braves

PLAYER	Pregame cPSAN70	Game cPSAN70	Difference
J. Tauai	0.82	12.33	11.51
D. Ruffin	1.51	10.81	9.30
W. Franklin	1.84	6.79	4.95
M. Sommerville	1.4	5.31	3.91
Z. Andrews	3.47	5.69	2.22
D. Adams	0.86	0.00	-0.86
P. O'Bryant	6.73	3.64	-3.09
T. Bennett	1.62	-1.98	-3.60
L. Wright	2.21	-11.06	-13.27

Analysis: So much of the focus was on NBA-bound Patrick O'Bryant in the middle. Actually, O'Bryant had a rather disappointing effort overall. Much of that was probably good defense by KU's big men. But it didn't really matter, because Tauai and Ruffin brought their A+ games onto the court. Tauai's numbers don't look that impressive in the boxscore until you adjust for his mere 17 minutes played. Efficient shooting, plenty of steals, and some rebounds made his effort the most efficient on court. Meanwhile, Ruffin's overall contributions were even higher than Tauai, even though they weren't as good when adjusting for playing time. In any event, both of those players really stepped it up. There were also three other players who took it up a notch from their usual level (Franklin, Sommerville, and Andrews). Sommerville, in particular, had deadly daggers from behind the arc. He didn't do much but score and rebound, but he did those prolifically well. His rating suffered a bit only because he played 37 minutes without much to show for in other statistical categories.

Bottom Line

The statistical models haven't been designed to evaluate coaching strategy, players' mindset/focus, etc. It's clear that KU players were nervous and unfocused for this game. For whatever reason, the end result was that KU played absolutely nothing like it had leading up to the game, and Bradley stepped up its play in a most impressive fashion. KU's star players mostly floundered, without a single player stepping up a significant amount to compensate. Meanwhile, BU players were having "career" games left and right. The end result probably should have been even more lopsided.

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