Analysis: SANZ Ratings for First 4 vs Last 4 Games

After reading an article about how Hawkins has really begun to play better the last few games, I decided to take a look at my SANZ player ratings broken up into the first 4 games vs the last 4 games so far. It was rather interesting to see the stark contrast in some players' ratings. I'd be interested in everyone's thoughts on this.

Cumulative SANZ Ratings Thru Game 4 (Chaminade):

Sasha Kaun 34.95
Brandon Rush 25.47
C.J. Giles 17.10
Mario Chalmers 12.91
Julian Wright 6.00
Matt Kleinmann 1.90
Micah Downs -0.45
Russell Robinson -0.54
Stephen Vinson -1.64
Christian Moody -17.06
Jeremy Case -18.37
Jeff Hawkins -19.50


Ratings of Players Using Only Games 5-8 (since Chaminade, NOT cumulative all 8 games):

C.J. Giles 30.24
Julian Wright 21.74
Brandon Rush 17.99
Jeremy Case 9.18
Micah Downs 8.64
Sasha Kaun 4.79
Stephen Vinson 4.63
Russell Robinson 0.68
Mario Chalmers -7.44
Jeff Hawkins -9.06
Christian Moody -10.60
Matt Kleinmann -30.80


Here's the difference in players' ratings between the two time periods:

(REMEMBER: This is not how much their cumulative ratings have gone up since; it's the difference btw the 2 periods)
Jeremy Case 27.55
Julian Wright 15.74
C.J. Giles 13.13
Jeff Hawkins 10.45
Micah Downs 9.09
Christian Moody 6.46
Stephen Vinson 6.27
Russell Robinson 1.22
Brandon Rush -7.49
Mario Chalmers -20.36
Sasha Kaun -30.16
Matt Kleinmann -32.70


ANALYSIS

We can disregard Case and Kleinmann's ratings because of lack of playing time.

First thing I noticed was that Kaun was the #1 performer in the First 4, but he's performed in last place among eligible players during the Last 4! This is very disconcerting, that he's been worst over a 4 game stretch. Granted, his last game he was ill, but what about the other three. He had better turn things around if we are to have any chance of making the Big Dance.

Our "three-headed monster" to which I referred in my postgame after Cal has actually been Giles/Rush/Wright (not Kaun) if you look at the last 4 games alone. This back and forth between Giles and Kaun should be interesting the rest of the season, assuming Kaun hasn't slipped for good.

What's most encouraging to me about these numbers is that they reflect Julian's strong emergence over more than just one game (in this instance, four games). In fact, over the last 4 games, Julian has the team's highest PTS rating (combo of per game, per minute, season total). It also shows me that Robinson and Moody haven't changed much over the course of the season ... Russell is average and Moody is rather bad on paper.

The story with Hawkins is interesting, too. Even though he has the 3rd best improvement looking at the last 4 games, he's still been the 3rd worst player during the last 4 games.

Some interesting comparisons of team leaders and laggards in my ratings after Game 4 and during Games 5-8:

2FG Best: Wright (formerly Rush)
2FG Worst: Hawkins (Wright! -- believe it or not, Julian went from worst to first)

AST: Hawkins was the team leader, but he's been 6th on the team in the last 4 games (leader is Vinson)

PF: Moody went from being better than average in the first 4 games to worst on the team in the last 4.

3FG: KU owes its 3pt % almost solely due to Rush and Downs, the only two above average ratings. Rush was the leader in the first 4 games, but Downs has supplanted him in the last 4.

BALLHANDLING

I take my AST rating and subtract the TO rating to get an indicator of ball-handling. A ratio wouldn't make sense here, because the ratings could be less than zero. So, here are the changes in AST-minus-TO rating from First 4 to Last 4 games:

(REMEMBER: These are IMPROVEMENT numbers, not the actual rating)
Jeremy Case 1.392630838
Russell Robinson 1.18772421
Brandon Rush 1.023013087
Mario Chalmers 0.856951077
Stephen Vinson 0.794703357 (team leading rating during the Last 4)
Micah Downs 0.513741203
Christian Moody 0.148941386
Julian Wright 0.05544031
C.J. Giles -0.078088327
Sasha Kaun -0.276556531
Jeff Hawkins -0.952395075
Matt Kleinmann -4.666105535

Again, ignoring Case and Kleinmann ... we see Robinson at the top of the smalls. Don't balk at the Chalmers figures just yet. Over the last 4 games, he's had 12 AST and 10 TO's ... Hawkins over the same period has had 9 AST to 7 TO's. Vinson has had 10 AST to 2 TO's but he already had a good rating in the first 4 games.

Another way to look at ballhandling might be to use AST, TO, and STL. You could argue that a TO and STL both result in a change of possession and are thus equal. In order to balance them with AST, I used a formula of 50%-times-STL rating minus 50%-times-TO rating PLUS 100%-times AST rating. Using that formula, here are the difference from First 4 to Last 4:

(REMEMBER: These are IMPROVEMENT numbers, not the actual rating)
Jeremy Case 1.988834812
Mario Chalmers 1.518529673
Stephen Vinson 1.481053757 (Team leading rating during the Last 4)
Russell Robinson 1.103947419
Sasha Kaun 0.432037622
Micah Downs 0.067715831
Brandon Rush -0.035254256
Julian Wright -0.072973166
Christian Moody -0.443923754
C.J. Giles -0.745939161
Jeff Hawkins -2.354611962
Matt Kleinmann -2.939416814

Is it possible that we're ignoring Chalmers' STL's when we think about him as a ballhandler? Psychologically, we get so peeved when we see him throw the ball away on a ridiculous pass! But his numbers argue that he makes up for it well with his steals and passes that lead to baskets. The one thing you can't really argue though is that the team's rhythm seems disrupted when Chalmers is in. That's one of the most important things a point guard should bring to the table.


SUMMARY

Looks like a comparison of our Last 4 vs First 4 games shows Wright and Giles really making strides. Kaun has slipped severely, while Rush's slip still makes him one of our top three performers over the recent stretch. Hawkins is still woeful despite huge improvements. And our best ballhandler on paper over the last 4 has been Vinson, although Chalmers is an extremely close 2nd if you count STL's. Self thinks it's Hawkins though ... so that's that.

Email this page to your friend

Copyright © 2006 Sports and Numbers. All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Use  Privacy Policy