Game Impact (cPSAN) 2005-06 Season Trends Improvement Index -0.24 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the game # (i.e., how deep into season).  Index of +1 indicates perfectly steady improvement, and -1 indicates perfectly steady worsening. Consistency Index +0.52 Range is -1 to +1.  Shows correlation between cPSAN game rating and the cPSAN rating for the previous game.  Basically measures game-to-game consistency.  Positive index means that a good game is usually followed up by another good game.  A negative score means the player usually performs poorly after a good game and vice versa. Game-by-Game Ratings This is a chart showing the impact the player made on each game last season, using the cPSAN score.  The cPSAN does adjust for the quality of the opponent, but unlike the cPSAN70, does not adjust for playing time.  The rationale for using this rating is that I wanted to measure the player's impact each individual game as the season progresses, not just how well he uses the time he's on court.  For my overall season ratings (ePSAN70), I like to adjust for playing time so we're comparing fairly.  So, don't be confused if a player's ratings on the chart below don't match his ePSAN70 rating above ... one adjusts for playing time, and the other doesn't.   Click to see full-size image

Gm# Opponent 1 Idaho St. 2 Arizona 3 Arkansas 4 Nevada 5 W. Illinois 6 St. Joe's 7 California 8 Pepperdine 9 N. Colorado 10 New Orleans 11 Yale 12 Kentucky 13 at Colorado 14 Kansas St 15 at Missouri 16 Nebraska 17 at Texas A&M 18 at Iowa St 19 Texas Tech 20 Oklahoma 21 at Nebraska 22 Iowa State 23 at Okla State 24 Missouri 25 Baylor 26 at Texas 27 Colorado 28 at Kansas St. 29 Okla St. 30 Nebraska 31 Texas 32 Bradley

Analysis

The season started out with some optimism for Jeremy Case.  His performances backed up some of that.  Against New Orleans and Yale, he had his two best game impact (cPSAN) ratings.  What followed, however, was a gradual decline in performance.  Certainly, Case improved his statistics over his frosh season considerably.  And in some of his higher-rated games, his perimeter shooting was a nice shot in the arm.  But his impact as the season progressed was clearly in decline, as Coach Self used him less and less.  Although his impact on the games wasn't very much, he ended up with a fairly respectable ePSAN70 score (best measure of efficiency), partially because the Kansas team ranked so high in power ratings.  But as far as the pecking order on the team, Case's overall ePSAN70 rating lagged far behind the rest of the boys.

The positive ratings that he did generate usually came from his shooting.  Interestingly, he's known for being a 3-pt shooter, but he had a much better 2FG rating than 3FG.  In fact, he shot only 33% from behind the arc.  His 2FG shooting was quite impressive (7 of 8) but obviously lacking in quantity.

What KU Fans Say

Comments from KUSports.com Message Board:

• I know he can do MUCH better than these stats show. But, he hasn't shown it in games.  With our current depth, you have to figure Jeremy is our sub-substitute designated shooter.  Jeremy does up the scale of our "quality person" roster.
• Interesting note on his 2-pointers. I often find that 3-point shooters, when they are respected by the defense, have a MUCH easier time scoring easy buckets and layups (see: Korver, Kyle). I think that's what Jeremy will need to take break the rotation at all. If only we could have Rod's body and slashing game, and Jeremy's shooting in one person...
• Under what circumstances would Case play?  I'm going with...  a. lack of turnovers - I think Coach Self values some guys that come in and make the stars better by being the "glue".  b. tough defense - let's see if the kid has learned to ride in someone's jock.  c. injuries - let's hope this one doesn't come to pass. 

Comments from Phog.net Message Board:

• I don't need a mathematical formula to tell you Jeremy Case won't see a minute of important action this season.
• I'm sure he's a good guy, but he's unlikely to contribute much. I can't see his limited time sample as too significant for discussion purposes.
• Since Case doesn't play much it's hard to tell which games he played in for enough minutes to provide a reasonable measure of his performance.
• Although JC has received less pt than others, I still believe he could deliver possitive moments during his next two years.  I love the way Coach Self has used JC in getting him into games for short streaches in the 1st half to see if he could hit a trey or two.   JC may end his career at KU with the stamp of good in practice but nothing in games, but in seeing his support for his teammates, JC will always be a plus in my mind for the Jayhawks.
• It's obvious that Jeremy Case's game begins and ends with the 3-point shot. That's perfectly fine, especially if he is coming off the bench for a few minutes, with that specific reason in mind.
• Case is interesting because he is touted as a 3pt specialist yet he isn't very good at that. Plus he sees his minutes usually during the last 3 or 4 minutes of games when KU has a huge lead. It seems Self has never wanted to put Case into a game when it counted. I don't think the moniker of 3 point specialist should apply to a player who only gets mop up minutes.  At best Case is nothing more than a practice player.
• The only time I want either Morningstar or Case in a game is when we're up by 40. Otherwise they belong at the end of the bench.