Kansas at Iowa State (Ames, IA)| | Kansas | Iowa State
| Performance Indicators
| | | Record (conference)
| 14-4 (3-0) | 12-6 (1-2) | | AP Rank | NR
(31st most votes)
| NR
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 18
| 103
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 31 | 99
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Washington (#19) W 73-54
vs Tennessee (#35) W 92-85 | @ Houston (#45) W 71-67
vs Nebraska (#60) W 65-53
| RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current and forecast RPI from RPIForecast .) | Current: 36 Forecast: 22 | Current: 110 Forecast: 135 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 7.0
Est. Projection: 69-62 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 8.1 | | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 8.0 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 69-61
80% chance of victory | | TeamRankings.com
(Use home rating for home team, road for road. If fewer than 3 games played at corresponding locations, use "predictive" ratings for both teams but use specific home advantage rather than standard average homecourt advantage for all NCAA teams.) | Win by 4.1
| | AccuScore Game Forecast
(Models how players and coaches have individually responded to similar conditions. Games are then simulated play-by-play over 10,000 times.) | Win by 10.2
Est. Projection: 74-64
78% chance of victory | | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location. NEW - This takes offense and defense into account separately to reflect how consistent teams have played on each end of the court) | Est. Projection: 64.4-63.6
53% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(40% Vegas + 8% Pred Trckr + 8% SagPred + 8% Pom + 8 % TmRnkgs + 8% Accu + 20% Last 7) | Win by 6.0
Est. Projection: 69-63 | |
PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season(PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact. For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better. PSAN70 ratings are just PSAN expressed as "per 70 possessions" to reflect efficiency. The difference between ePSAN and PSAN is that "e" is enhanced and weighs recent games more - used for Kansas only.) Kansas Impact Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN-O | ePSAN-D | ePSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 68.84 | -54.91 | 123.76 | | Brady Morningstar | 26.09 | -13.75 | 39.83 | | Sherron Collins | 27.59 | -12.10 | 39.69 | | Marcus Morris | 13.68 | -19.13 | 32.82 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 18.10 | -9.82 | 27.92 | | Tyrel Reed | 17.44 | -4.30 | 21.74 | | Markieff Morris | 9.92 | -10.95 | 20.87 | | Mario Little | 10.92 | -0.20 | 11.12 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 3.39 | -5.33 | 8.72 | | Travis Releford | -1.54 | -5.30 | 3.76 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 0.96 | -1.19 | 2.15 | | Chase Buford* | -0.91 | -0.30 | -0.61 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -0.48 | 0.14 | -0.63 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -0.88 | 0.29 | -1.18 | | Brennan Bechard* | -2.50 | 0.18 | -2.68 | | Conner Teahan* | -5.48 | -2.05 | -3.43 | Efficiency Ratings
| PLAYER | ePSAN70-O | ePSAN70-D | ePSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 5.31 | -4.24 | 9.55 | | Mario Little | 6.14 | -0.11 | 6.25 | | Marcus Morris | 1.65 | -2.30 | 3.95 | | Quintrell Thomas* | 1.41 | -2.23 | 3.64 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 1.42 | -1.78 | 3.20 | | Brady Morningstar | 2.00 | -1.05 | 3.06 | | Markieff Morris | 1.27 | -1.40 | 2.66 | | Sherron Collins | 1.82 | -0.80 | 2.61 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.50 | -0.81 | 2.32 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.82 | -0.45 | 2.27 | | Travis Releford | -0.42 | -1.46 | 1.03 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -0.79 | 0.23 | -1.02 | | Conner Teahan* | -3.40 | -1.27 | -2.13 | | Chase Buford* | -4.14 | -1.37 | -2.77 | | Brennan Bechard* | -9.48 | 0.68 | -10.15 | | Jordan Juenemann* | -9.94 | 3.28 | -13.22 | * Rating not based on enough data. | Iowa State State Impact Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Craig Brackins | 0.62 | -36.84 | 37.45 | | Justin Hamilton | 17.67 | -7.26 | 24.93 | | Jamie Vanderbeken | 11.28 | -10.41 | 21.68 | | Cameron Lee* | 3.69 | -3.02 | 6.71 | | Alex Thompson | 0.34 | -5.66 | 6.00 | | Diante Garrett | -8.29 | -13.21 | 4.92 | | Charles Boozer* | 0.28 | -4.37 | 4.65 | | Clinton Mann* | 1.48 | -0.46 | 1.94 | | Lucca Staiger | 0.82 | -0.83 | 1.65 | | Bryan Petersen | -11.33 | -10.74 | -0.58 | | Dominique Buckley* | -6.83 | -4.42 | -2.41 | | Sean Haluska | -11.99 | -1.35 | -10.65 | | Wes Eikmeier | -21.38 | 1.58 | -22.95 | Efficiency Ratings | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Cameron Lee* | 4.06 | -3.32 | 7.38 | | Jamie Vanderbeken | 2.26 | -2.09 | 4.35 | | Justin Hamilton | 3.03 | -1.25 | 4.28 | | Craig Brackins | 0.05 | -2.86 | 2.91 | | Clinton Mann* | 2.19 | -0.68 | 2.87 | | Charles Boozer* | 0.16 | -2.50 | 2.66 | | Alex Thompson | 0.05 | -0.78 | 0.83 | | Diante Garrett | -0.60 | -0.96 | 0.36 | | Lucca Staiger | 0.08 | -0.08 | 0.17 | | Bryan Petersen | -0.89 | -0.84 | -0.05 | | Dominique Buckley* | -3.71 | -2.40 | -1.31 | | Sean Haluska | -1.97 | -0.22 | -1.75 | | Wes Eikmeier | -3.60 | 0.27 | -3.86 | * Rating not based on enough data. |
Player Analysis:
(largely in context of ratings above) Will add, time permitting. Last 7 Game Analysis | | Kansas | Iowa St. | | Expected Score | 64.4 | 63.6 | | Win | 52.7% | 47.3% | | Win by 3 or less | 6.8% | 7.3% | | Win by 10 or more | 29.5% | 25.3% | Down to the Wire?
Margin of game was less than 1 point in 5.1% of simulated games from "Last 7 Game Analysis." Many of these would be "overtime" games. (Methodology of Last 7 Game Analysis: Here, we look at the last seven venue-appropriate games to see how the teams are performing. If the game takes place on the road for Kansas, for example, the analysis looks at the five most recent non-home games for Kansas. In addition, the two most recent games, regardless of venue, are added. That way, we get a picture of the how the team is performing of late. This season, the analysis also splits offense and defense. Teams often are more or less consistent on one side of the court than the other. This analysis will reflect that. Based on the strength of the opposing offense and defense they've played over the last seven games, each team's offense and defense is evaluated based on strength and consistency. Those numbers are then plugged into a simulation of 8,000 games. The results are what you see in the table.) Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 344 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com) | Kansas | Iowa State
| Offense #19 - Defense #30 - Tempo #126
Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#21 eFG%, #18 opp eFG%)
Particularly good at controlling 2FG% (#28 own, #8 opp)
Great offensive rebounding (#35)
Strong 3FG% (#48)
Great job on defense of BLK (#33)
Have high % of FG's assisted (#25) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: C
Short: None Other Factors: Rank #35 in Effective Height
Team is #333 in experience
Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - PG ... Lo - SG, SF
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 18)
Sherron Collins - #106 AST rate
Brady Morningstar - #157 eFG%
Cole Aldrich - #23 eFG%, #90 OREB%, #24 DREB%, #177 FT Rate, #28 BLK%, #186 PF drawn/40min
Marcus Morris - #33 OREB%, #197 STL%
Markieff Morris - #187 DREB%
| Offense #202 - Defense #45 - Tempo #214
Strong defensive eFG% (#21), particularly 2FG% (#17)
Very few TO's on both sides (#49 own TO%, #325 force opp TO%)
Very few OREB's on both sides (#336 own, #12 limit opp)
Very few FT's on both sides (#326 own, #27 limit opp)
Rarely get blocked (#33 off BLK%)
Rarely make STL (#341 def STL%)
Take a high % of FG's from 3FG (#49)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#18) Size (Tall = Position is Top 50 in minutes-weighted height, Short = #250 or worse)
Tall: C, PF, PG
Short: None Other Factors: Rank #20 in Effective Height
Unusually high/low % of points scored by positions: Hi - PF ... Lo - SG, PG
Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 18)
Diante Garrett - #56 AST Rate
Craig Brackins - #36 DREB%, #184 TO% (lo), #106 PF drawn/40min
Alex Thompson - #141 BLK%
| Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies somewhat less on 3FG's, while its opponents rely very little on 2FG's and unusually highly on FT's.
On offense, ISU relies unusually highly on 3FG's, as do its opponents. |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Iowa St. | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Iowa St. OREB | | | | Iowa St. PTS/Poss** | | | | Kansas TO rate | | | | Iowa St. 2pt FG%** | | | | | Iowa St. FT Rate | | | | Iowa St. eFG% | | | | Iowa St. % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Kansas FT% | | | | Kansas 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss | | | | Kansas eFG% | | | | Iowa St. % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Kansas 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas OREB | | | | Kansas FT Rate | | | | Iowa St. 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | | Iowa St. TO rate** | | | | Iowa St. FT% | ************************************************************* | Iowa St. will have above avg % of FG's assisted | | Expect average-paced game |
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Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) Manual adjustments: Mario Little minutes played reflects his gradual return to the lineup.
Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 65 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Iowa St. | 57 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brady Morningstar | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Cole Aldrich | 31 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | | Marcus Morris | 14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | | Mario Little | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Markieff Morris | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 37 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | | Travis Releford | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 29 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 17 | 35 | 6 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 65 | 7 | 30 | 37 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Iowa St. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Alex Thompson | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Bryan Petersen | 38 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Craig Brackins | 38 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Diante Garrett | 38 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Jamie Vanderbeken | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Justin Hamilton | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Lucca Staiger | 30 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | Sean Haluska | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | | Wes Eikmeier | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 14 | 35 | 6 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 57 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 12 | 14 | 4 | 3 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 65-57 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 67 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 50-43% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 21-19% |
| | O-Reb% | KU 27-21%
| Very interesting to see whether KU gets OREB's. ISU games typically don't have much OREB on either side. | | FTA/FGA | KU 37-30%
| | Four Factors Overall
| KU should have slight advantages in all categories except eFG%, where they should have a significant one.
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| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Brackins, Garrett | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Haluska | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Vanderbeken | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Marcus Morris Opp - Haluska, Vanderbeken | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Aldrich, Markieff Morris Opp - Brackins, Petersen | |
Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 65-57
(all prediction models included/complete) |
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | While it is usually the most important category in any game, eFG% is particularly important in this game. ISU's only advantage this season has essentially been shooting better from the field than opponents, which means a KU win in that category cripples the Cyclones' chances of an upset. | KU to have eFG% advantage. | | | | ISU should have a very difficult time scoring, so one thing they could really use is trips to the FT line. In particular, Brackins and Garrett have the ability to put free points on the board. Without help there, it could be tough to pull off the upset, no matter how poorly KU plays. | Brackins and Garrett to attempt at least 18 FT's combined
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