Preview: Kansas vs Villanova (NCAA Tournament)
Mar 27, 2008

Kansas vs Villanova (NCAA Tournament - Detroit, MI)

Abbreviated preview.  Many components of usual previews located at Phog.net for premium members.

 

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Rodrick Stewart to play 0 minutes, as Self has not played him meaningful postseason minutes.  Drummond out for Villanova due to injury.

 

Projected Boxscore

 

Kansas 78                            
Villanova 69                            
                               
Kansas                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Brandon Rush 33 2 5 3 6 3 3 16 2 4 6 2 2 1 1
Cole Aldrich 7 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 1 2 3 0 1 0 1
Darnell Jackson 28 4 5 0 0 4 6 12 2 5 7 1 2 1 1
Darrell Arthur 27 4 9 0 0 3 4 11 3 4 7 1 2 1 2
Mario Chalmers 34 2 4 2 5 3 5 13 0 3 3 5 3 3 1
Russell Robinson 31 1 1 1 3 3 4 8 1 3 4 4 3 2 0
Sasha Kaun 14 2 4 0 0 2 5 6 2 2 4 0 1 0 2
Sherron Collins 26 2 4 1 4 2 2 9 0 2 2 3 2 1 0
TOTALS 200 18 34 7 18 21 30 78 11 25 36 16 16 9 8
                               
Villanova                              
PLAYER MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Scottie Reynolds 36 2 5 2 6 5 6 15 1 3 4 3 4 1 0
Dante Cunningham 34 4 7 0 0 3 4 11 3 3 6 1 3 1 1
Corey Fisher 25 2 5 1 4 2 3 9 0 1 1 2 2 1 0
Antonio Pena 13 2 5 0 0 2 3 6 2 3 5 1 2 1 0
Corey Stokes 12 1 2 1 4 1 1 6 1 2 3 1 1 1 0
Shane Clark 25 2 4 1 2 2 2 9 2 2 4 1 1 1 1
Dwayne Anderson 23 1 2 1 2 1 2 6 2 3 5 1 1 1 0
Malcolm Grant 9 0 2 1 2 1 2 4 0 1 1 1 1 0 0
Reggie Redding 23 1 3 0 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 1 1 0
TOTALS 200 15 35 7 21 18 25 69 12 20 32 12 16 8 2

 

 

Projection Summary

 

 
Projection
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 78-69  
 Tempo (# poss)
 71 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 55-46%  
 TO Rate (lo better)  Tie 23%  
 O-Reb% KU 35-32%
 Interesting, given KU's size advantage.
 FT Rate KU 40-32% 
 Four Factors Overall
 Better shot selection, meaning a higher eFG%, should drive the Jayhawks to victory.  There is also a slight edge at the FT line there for KU.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Rush, Chalmers

 Opp - Reynolds, Cunningham

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Rush

 Opp - Clark

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Clark

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Rush

 Opp - Stokes, Pena

 Not many KU players are projected to play well, because KU as a team is projected not to play as well as Nova.  Just that the superiority of KU is enough to ensure victory.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Chalmers, Collins

 Opp - Redding, Fisher

 If this really does happen, it may not be easy for KU as fans would like.

 

 

Sports and Numbers Projection

Kansas wins 78-69

(not all prediction models included yet)