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Recap: Texas Tech at Kansas |
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Jan 18, 2010 |
Kansas 89 - Texas Tech 63 PSAN
"Total Impact" RatingsAll ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent | PSAN70
"Efficiency" RatingsPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions" | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Marcus Morris
Lowest Composite: David Tairu (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Marcus Morris | 7.05 | -1.04 | 8.10 | | Cole Aldrich | 4.51 | -2.41 | 6.91 | | Xavier Henry | 3.40 | -1.73 | 5.13 | | Brady Morningstar | 1.84 | -3.16 | 5.00 | | Tyrel Reed | -0.43 | -3.11 | 2.67 | | Markieff Morris | -0.90 | -3.05 | 2.16 | | Jeff Withey* | 0.81 | -0.70 | 1.51 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 0.03 | -0.68 | 0.71 | | Elijah Johnson* | 0.17 | -0.25 | 0.42 | | Sherron Collins | -0.85 | -1.25 | 0.40 | | Chase Buford* | -0.59 | -0.69 | 0.10 | | Conner Teahan* | -0.83 | 0.00 | -0.83 | | C.J. Henry* | -0.86 | 0.00 | -0.86 | | Thomas Robinson | -1.89 | -0.98 | -0.90 | For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Brad Reese | 1.61 | -3.68 | 5.29 | | D'Walyn Roberts | 3.64 | -0.94 | 4.58 | | John Roberson | 4.40 | 1.86 | 2.54 | | Theron Jenkins | 2.61 | 0.38 | 2.23 | | Robert Lewandowski | -1.11 | -1.19 | 0.08 | | Mike Davis* | -0.70 | 0.00 | -0.70 | | Nick Okorie | -5.94 | -4.97 | -0.97 | | Darko Cohadarevic | 0.81 | 2.09 | -1.28 | | Mike Singletary | -5.15 | -1.83 | -3.31 | | David Tairu | -3.32 | 1.16 | -4.48 | *Rating not based on enough data. | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Marcus Morris
Lowest Composite: David Tairu (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Jeff Withey* | 9.57 | -8.27 | 17.84 | | Marcus Morris | 11.35 | -1.68 | 13.03 | | Cole Aldrich | 7.25 | -3.87 | 11.12 | | Brady Morningstar | 2.83 | -4.86 | 7.69 | | Xavier Henry | 4.63 | -2.35 | 6.98 | | Elijah Johnson* | 2.06 | -2.92 | 4.98 | | Tyrel Reed | -0.77 | -5.50 | 4.73 | | Markieff Morris | -1.51 | -5.15 | 3.63 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 0.08 | -2.02 | 2.09 | | Chase Buford* | -10.48 | -12.21 | 1.73 | | Sherron Collins | -1.16 | -1.70 | 0.54 | | Thomas Robinson | -6.07 | -3.16 | -2.90 | | C.J. Henry* | -5.08 | 0.00 | -5.08 | | Conner Teahan* | -9.78 | 0.00 | -9.78 | For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | D'Walyn Roberts | 8.58 | -2.22 | 10.81 | | Brad Reese | 2.48 | -5.66 | 8.14 | | Theron Jenkins | 9.22 | 1.35 | 7.87 | | John Roberson | 4.33 | 1.83 | 2.49 | | Robert Lewandowski | -1.51 | -1.62 | 0.11 | | Nick Okorie | -7.51 | -6.28 | -1.23 | | Darko Cohadarevic | 1.79 | 4.62 | -2.83 | | Mike Davis* | -4.11 | 0.00 | -4.11 | | Mike Singletary | -9.10 | -3.24 | -5.86 | | David Tairu | -5.87 | 2.06 | -7.93 | *Rating not based on enough data. |
| Offensive and Defensive Performance
Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team. That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense. This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams. | (pts per 100 poss) | Kansas | Texas Tech
| | Offensive Performance | 114.7 | 96.2 | | Defensive Performance | 76.1 | 91.2 | | ANALYSIS: Decent job from both teams when KU had the ball, though slightly better job by KU. But it was a dominant performance when TTU had possession. Yes, the Raiders played a bit below the average team's level, but KU was absolutely suffocating on defense. | Four Factor Analysis(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below) What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team? | Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin) | | Statistic Measured | Kansas | Texas Tech
| | eFG% | 15.4 | | | TO Rate | | 1.0
| | O-Reb% | 8.3
| | | Freethrows | FT Pct | 1.1 |
| | FT Attempts | 6.9
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Pre-Game Projected Key Factors At least 75% likely to be important: - Texas Tech OREB% - Really struggled, only at 24% (well below proj 32%)
- Texas Tech eFG% - Couldn't make shots, 37% vs proj 41%
- Kansas eFG% - Made shots but below proj level, even moreso than TTU
- Kansas TO% - Slightly more than proj (20% vs 18%)
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Between 50-75% likely to be important: Between 25-50% likely to be important: - Texas Tech FTA/FGA - Way below proj (30% vs 42%) and made it tougher
- Kansas OREB% - Surprised to the upside by a lot (47% vs 38% proj)
BOTTOM LINE - Probably the biggest deviation from projection was the OREB% battle, where it was equal parts KU's surprise surge and TTU's surprise lacking. One of those was in the higher likelihood category, and the other was listed but in the lower likelihood section. Mixed results again. The utility of this regression may not be what I'd hoped. I will continue it for a while before shutting it down though, just in case it starts performing better. |
Game Projections | | Projection | Actual | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 89-67 | KU 89-63 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 77 | 79 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 54-41% | KU 49-37%
| | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 22-18% | TTU 21-20%
| | | O-Reb% | KU 38-32%
| KU 47-24%
| Remarkably large advantage here that probably fueled the higher eFG%. | | FT Rate | KU 48-42%
| KU 40-30%
| | Four Factors Overall
| Mostly the eFG% edge, but a little bit in other categories to help give KU a blowout victory.
| Better shooting was the biggest edge, but great OREB and getting more FT attempts turned it into a blowout for KU.
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| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins/X. Henry Opp - Roberson/Singletary | KU - Marcus Morris, Aldrich/X. Henry Opp - Roberson, Reese/Roberts | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Tairu | KU - Marcus Morris (Aldrich #2) Opp - Reese (Tairu last) | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Tairu | KU - Marcus Morris (Aldrich #2) Opp - Roberts (Tairu last) | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Marcus Morris Opp - Tairu, Singletary | KU - Marcus Morris, Morningstar Opp - Reese, Jenkins | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Collins, Markieff Morris Opp - Roberts, Okorie | KU - Robinson, Collins Opp - Tairu, Singeltary | Rough day for Collins after finding out about the passing of his grandfather. Tairu was supposed to shine but was at his worst.
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