|
Recap: Michigan at Kansas |
|
|
|
Dec 20, 2009 |
Kansas 75 - Michigan 64 PSAN
"Total Impact" RatingsAll ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent | PSAN70
"Efficiency" RatingsPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions" | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Marcus Morris
Lowest Composite: Zack Gibson (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Marcus Morris | 6.40 | -1.50 | 7.90 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.57 | -1.38 | 2.95 | | Cole Aldrich | -1.24 | -3.66 | 2.41 | | Sherron Collins | 1.11 | 0.15 | 0.96 | | Thomas Robinson | -0.13 | -1.03 | 0.90 | | Brady Morningstar | 0.96 | 0.23 | 0.73 | | Tyshawn Taylor | -0.46 | -0.62 | 0.16 | | Xavier Henry | -1.30 | 0.11 | -1.41 | | Markieff Morris* | -0.38 | 1.47 | -1.85 | For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | DeShawn Sims | 3.50 | -1.71 | 5.21 | | Manny Harris | 1.34 | -3.26 | 4.61 | | Darius Morris | 4.49 | 0.44 | 4.05 | | Stu Douglass | 1.13 | -1.99 | 3.13 | | Zack Novak | 1.88 | -0.93 | 2.81 | | Anthony Wright* | -1.36 | -0.87 | -0.49 | | Matt Vogrich* | -0.56 | 0.00 | -0.56 | | Laval Lucas-Perry | -1.37 | -0.12 | -1.25 | | Zack Gibson | -1.60 | 0.32 | -1.92 | *Rating not based on enough data. | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Tyrel Reed
Lowest Composite: Zack Gibson (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Tyrel Reed | 5.77 | -5.08 | 10.86 | | Marcus Morris | 8.11 | -1.90 | 10.01 | | Cole Aldrich | -1.87 | -5.49 | 3.62 | | Thomas Robinson | -0.49 | -3.80 | 3.31 | | Brady Morningstar | 1.78 | 0.42 | 1.35 | | Sherron Collins | 1.46 | 0.20 | 1.25 | | Tyshawn Taylor | -0.81 | -1.09 | 0.28 | | Xavier Henry | -1.55 | 0.13 | -1.68 | | Markieff Morris* | -1.69 | 6.64 | -8.33 | For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | DeShawn Sims | 4.89 | -2.39 | 7.28 | | Darius Morris | 7.90 | 0.77 | 7.14 | | Manny Harris | 1.47 | -3.58 | 5.04 | | Stu Douglass | 1.27 | -2.24 | 3.52 | | Zack Novak | 2.18 | -1.08 | 3.26 | | Anthony Wright* | -6.87 | -4.40 | -2.47 | | Laval Lucas-Perry | -2.78 | -0.25 | -2.53 | | Zack Gibson | -5.91 | 1.18 | -7.09 | | Matt Vogrich* | -22.53 | 0.00 | -22.53 | *Rating not based on enough data. |
| Offensive and Defensive Performance
Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team. That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense. This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams. | (pts per 100 poss) | Kansas | Michigan
| Offensive Performance
| 109.4 | 110.7 | | Defensive Performance | 90.9 | 88.1 | Comments As most observers would probably have noted, in terms of performance, Michigan was slightly better on both sides of the ball. That is, the same effort against a common opponent from each team would have yielded a slightly better result for Michigan than for KU. Both teams put in efforts that would be classified as very good on both sides of the ball, approximately 10% better than average in each case. | Four Factor Analysis(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below) What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team? | Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin) | | Statistic Measured | Kansas | Michigan
| | eFG% | 21.6 |
| | TO Rate | | 4.0
| | O-Reb% | 0.4 | | | Freethrows | FT Pct | | 2.3
| | FT Attempts | 10.3
| |
Game Projections | | Projection | Actual | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 83-55 | KU 75-64
| | Tempo (# poss)
| 67 | 69 | The pace was a bit higher than expected. UM has a statistically significant correlation between tempo and their defensive efficiency (better defense at higher pace), so this played out as expected, as KU struggled on offense compared to its usual. | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 65-38% | KU 58-40%
| Big edge to KU, but still KU came up a bit shorter than expected here. | | TO Rate (lo better) | UM 22-18% | UM 20-14%
| As projected, this virtually ties for KU's 2nd worse TO% performance of season so far. | | O-Reb% | KU 48-29%
| KU 28-27%
| As expected, UM held low, KU was supposed to dominate here. Markieff in foul trouble and Robinson just didn't grab any to help. | | FT Rate | KU 31-23%
| KU 54-19%
| Helped KU offset OREB% being unexpectedly even. | Four Factors Overall
| Nothing much to matter except for a gigantic shooting advantage and OREB% edge for KU.
| As expected, KU's shooting advantage was dominant factor, but unexpected FT attempt edge kept this game from ever being in doubt. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - X. Henry, Collins Opp - Harris, Sims | KU - Marcus Morris, Collins Opp - Sims, Harris | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Harris | KU - Marcus Morris (Aldrich #3) Opp - Sims (Harris #2) | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Harris | KU -Reed (Aldrich #3) Opp - Sims (Harris #3) | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Robinson, Taylor Opp - Douglass, Lucas-Perry | KU - Reed, Marcus Morris Opp - Morris, Douglass | Surprisingly strong from Marcus Morris and Darius Morris.
| | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris Opp - Morris, Sims | KU - Henry, Aldrich Opp - Gibson | Henry and Aldrich doing the worst versus expected is a recipe for bad games for KU. |
| |