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Recap: Kansas vs Memphis (St. Louis, MO) Print E-mail
Nov 18, 2009

Kansas 57 - Memphis 55

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Cole Aldrich
Lowest Composite: Tyshawn Taylor

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Cole Aldrich 9.33 -3.26 12.60
Sherron Collins 4.97 -1.72 6.69
Markieff Morris 1.57 -0.35 1.92
Xavier Henry -0.33 -1.65 1.32
Marcus Morris 2.65 2.09 0.57
Thomas Robinson* -0.11 0.37 -0.48
Tyrel Reed -0.94 0.62 -1.55
Elijah Johnson* -1.23 0.37 -1.60
Tyshawn Taylor -2.85 -0.81 -2.04

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Elliot Williams 2.40 -6.14 8.54
Will Coleman 1.73 -3.65 5.37
Doneal Mack 1.71 -0.61 2.32
Willie Kemp -1.75 -3.92 2.17
Roburt Sallie -4.31 -5.21 0.90
Pierre Henderson-Niles -2.05 -2.50 0.45
D.J. Stephens* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wesley Witherspoon -2.43 -0.73 -1.70

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Cole Aldrich
Lowest Composite: Tyrel Reed 

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Cole Aldrich 13.17 -4.60 17.77
Sherron Collins 6.58 -2.28 8.86
Markieff Morris 4.42 -0.99 5.41
Xavier Henry -0.44 -2.18 1.74
Marcus Morris 3.62 2.85 0.78
Tyshawn Taylor -3.65 -1.04 -2.62
Tyrel Reed -2.20 1.45 -3.65
Elijah Johnson* -7.46 2.22 -9.68
Thomas Robinson* -2.32 7.78 -10.10

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Will Coleman 3.05 -6.43 9.48
Elliot Williams 2.60 -6.66 9.27
Doneal Mack 3.02 -1.08 4.09
Willie Kemp -2.12 -4.74 2.63
Roburt Sallie -5.53 -6.69 1.16
Pierre Henderson-Niles -4.81 -5.88 1.07
D.J. Stephens* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wesley Witherspoon -3.95 -1.19 -2.76

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Memphis
Offensive Performance
120.1
93.2
Defensive Performance 93.7
65.9

 Comments

Again, we're still using adjustments for the fact that it's early season, and efficiencies are pretty off.  As such, Memphis has a crazy low "adjusted adjusted" defensive efficiency right now (72 pts/100 possessions).  Since KU scored at a rate of 86 this game, it means KU would have scored at a rate of 120 against an average defense (which gives up a rate of about 100).  Similarly, KU's offense is rated very high, so Memphis holding them down that much gives them a terrific defensive performance rating.  Enough about the caveats.

 

In an ugly game, believe it or not, the stats as they stand today argue that KU was very strong offensively and pretty good defensively.  Meanwhile, Memphis was below average on offense but out-of-this-world amazing on defense.

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasMemphis
eFG%7.5
 
TO Rate 6.8
O-Reb%3.0
 
FreethrowsFT Pct1.4
 
FT Attempts3.6
 

 

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

What a delightful insurance policy it is to have two All-Americans on the same team, isn't it?  Sherron Collins goes down with cramps (near his jewels, per TV commentators' not-so-subtle hints), and Cole Aldrich carries the team.  Granted, it was when Collins was back in the game that Cole was at his best.  Nevertheless, KU always had a viable option on the floor.  That's a luxury that carries a team through its growing pains.  It keeps away those 1 or 2 extra losses that might be the difference between a #1 or #2 seed in March.

 

On this night, it was Cole Aldrich who stood tallest of them all.  On 70 eFG% shooting, he poured in 18 PTS (that's a little less than a third of KU's points), 11 REB (4 OREB), 5 BLK, 1 STL and 0 TO.  Zero turnovers when everyone around him was giving the ball away like it was a late-year tax deduction.  Most viewers would argue that he had many more than 5 blocks, too.  One was called a foul when he pinned the ball between the rim and the backboard (replays looked very clean), and a few others the statistician must have missed.  Cole was EVERYWHERE.  I think he blocked a couple from the bench and during warmups, too.  A +17.77 PSAN-Composite efficiency rating for 30 minutes is pretty darn near as good a player can play.  The difference between Aldrich's line and Xavier Henry's debut is that we know Aldrich has amazing games all the time.

 

Sure Collins struggled with cramps, but he sure as heck didn't struggle when he was in the game.  Collins sizzled from the field at 79 eFG% (making his only 3FG attempt, and the only one KU made all night), and he finished with 12 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST, 2 STL and 2 TO in 32 MIN.  Really, the only mistake he had was the missed free throw at the end, but it was clear that he was giving all he had and that KU was probably going to lose if he weren't in the game at the end.

 

Another solid outing for Markieff Morris probably has KU fans excited that maybe he can be the inside yin to Aldrich's yang.  Markieff made his only FG attempt and both his FT attempts while securing 6 REB (2 OREB) and swatting one shot, but did have 2 TO in 15 MIN.  Still, he's providing a boost in the frontcourt that needs someone to complement the force that is Cole Aldrich.

 

Xavier Henry and Marcus Morris were the only other KU players with efficiency ratings over zero.  Henry was just awful from the field (27 eFG%) but managed to score 11 PTS with 5-of-6 from the FT line, 6 REB, 3 STL but also 4 TO in 32 MIN.  Marcus shot a very respectable 57 eFG% but struggled at the FT line (2-of-4) and managed only 1 DREB to go with 2 AST and 2 TO and 4 PF in 31 MIN.  Obviously, Self has great confidence in Marcus and really needed his offensive spark.  Still, neither Henry nor Marcus had games to write home about.

 

Boy oh boy, do things get ugly after that.  Tyshawn Taylor had the worst impact of all, from either team.  At least his defensive rating was slightly better than zero (negative is good on defense, remember).  But he missed all 4 FG's, canceled out his 5 AST with a whopping 7 TO, and added 3 DREB and 2 STL.  One of those steals was very big though, as it was the one right before half that swung momentum back in KU's favor.  Taylor is really getting a lot of heat right now for playing out of control.  His ability to turn things around may be the difference between a championship and an Elite 8 or Final Four appearance.

 

Tyrel Reed's impact was slightly less bad, but that's only because he played fewer minutes than Taylor.  His efficiency was awful, and on the wrong side for offense and defense both.  Once again, Reed missed his shots (2 FG's) and had just 1 REB in 18 MIN.  At least he didn't turn the ball over.  Elijah Johnson didn't play enough minutes for his rating to be significant, but it was so bad that it has to be mentioned.  In 7 MIN, all he had was 3 TO and 1 AST.  At least he didn't take any shots, but it was just awful.  Thomas Robinson played just 2 MIN and missed his putback attempt.  Self said it was the speed of the game that kept him out, but it didn't help that he didn't look ready at all.

 

For the Tigers, it was the terrific play of two players, Will Coleman and Elliot Williams, that kept Memphis in it.  The other thing was that Memphis didn't have any players who absolutely stunk it up.  Only one player had 3 TO, and that was Coleman.  Guys who shot poorly did other things to make up for it.  Witherspoon is really the only player who qualifies for "bad game" status.  He shot 33 eFG% and had 2 TO against 0 AST.

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 85-67
 KU 57-55
Ugly, ugly, ugly.
 Tempo (# poss)
 67 66 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 52-43%  KU 48-40%
 
 TO Rate (lo better)  UM 20-19%  UM 32-20%
 
 O-Reb% KU 55-46%
 KU 36-24%
 
 FT Rate UM 42-40%
 KU 49-29%
 It may not be the sexy answer (that would be that Cole Aldrich was the savior), but this was probably the unexpected advantage that was KU's saving grace.
 Four Factors Overall
 Skewed projections based on too little data, but perhaps a chance that KU's better shooting is the main difference here.  Hard to believe the OREB% will come true.
 Advantages for KU across the board except for turnovers, which almost cost them the game.  The unexpected FT advantage is probably what saved KU in the end from its carelessness.  Everything materialized in a manner more suited for uglier games (lower eFG%, lower OREB%, more TO).

 

 

 

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