|
Dec 8, 2009 |
Kansas 73 - UCLA 61 PSAN
"Total Impact" RatingsAll ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent | PSAN70
"Efficiency" RatingsPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions" | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Markieff Morris
Lowest Composite: Sherron Collins (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Markieff Morris | 6.55 | -1.50 | 8.05 | | Xavier Henry | 3.54 | -0.45 | 4.00 | | Cole Aldrich | 0.95 | -2.17 | 3.12 | | Tyrel Reed | 0.86 | -0.80 | 1.66 | | Marcus Morris | -1.98 | -1.67 | -0.31 | | Thomas Robinson* | -0.59 | 0.21 | -0.79 | | Tyshawn Taylor | -2.07 | -1.18 | -0.89 | | Elijah Johnson* | -0.59 | 0.41 | -1.00 | | Sherron Collins | -1.63 | -0.21 | -1.42 | For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Reeves Nelson | 1.59 | -2.38 | 3.97 | | Nikola Dragovic | 2.12 | -1.72 | 3.85 | | Michael Roll | 3.18 | 0.02 | 3.17 | | Malcolm Lee | 2.92 | -0.20 | 3.12 | | J'mison Morgan | 0.02 | -0.86 | 0.88 | | Tyler Honeycutt | -2.20 | -1.80 | -0.40 | | Jerime Anderson | -1.75 | -1.21 | -0.54 | | Brendan Lane* | 0.00 | 0.70 | -0.70 | | James Keefe | -1.57 | -0.54 | -1.02 | *Rating not based on enough data. | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Markieff Morris
Lowest Composite: James Keefe (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Markieff Morris | 12.50 | -2.85 | 15.35 | | Xavier Henry | 4.43 | -0.57 | 5.00 | | Cole Aldrich | 1.19 | -2.71 | 3.90 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.57 | -1.46 | 3.03 | | Marcus Morris | -3.05 | -2.58 | -0.47 | | Tyshawn Taylor | -3.32 | -1.89 | -1.42 | | Sherron Collins | -1.77 | -0.23 | -1.54 | | Elijah Johnson* | -5.88 | 4.12 | -10.00 | | Thomas Robinson* | -23.52 | 8.25 | -31.76 | For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Reeves Nelson | 2.76 | -4.14 | 6.91 | | Nikola Dragovic | 2.66 | -2.16 | 4.81 | | Michael Roll | 3.75 | 0.02 | 3.73 | | Malcolm Lee | 3.44 | -0.24 | 3.68 | | J'mison Morgan | 0.05 | -2.31 | 2.35 | | Jerime Anderson | -2.33 | -1.62 | -0.72 | | Tyler Honeycutt | -4.63 | -3.79 | -0.84 | | James Keefe | -6.28 | -2.18 | -4.10 | | Brendan Lane* | 0.00 | 9.32 | -9.32 | *Rating not based on enough data. |
| Offensive and Defensive Performance
Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team. That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense. This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams. | (pts per 100 poss) | Kansas | UCLA
| Offensive Performance
| 106.9 | 105.9 | | Defensive Performance | 89.2 | 88.3 | Comments When all was said and done, both teams actually performed at nearly equal levels. The problem for UCLA was that KU is the superior team, so the same level of play will not yield the same result for each side. In general, both teams were good on defense but only a little above average on offense. | Four Factor Analysis(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below) What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team? | Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin) | | Statistic Measured | Kansas | UCLA
| | eFG% | 9.2 |
| | TO Rate | 1.0 | | | O-Reb% | 1.4 | | | Freethrows | FT Pct | 2.3 | | | FT Attempts | | 1.3
|
Game Projections | | Projection | Actual | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 77-52 | KU 73-61
| | Tempo (# poss)
| 69 | 70 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 67-37% | KU 48-41%
| It was too good to be true against a decent defensive team. | | TO Rate (lo better) | Tie 23% | KU 21-20%
|
| | O-Reb% | UCLA 32-24%
| KU 44-39%
| Comforting to see the Jayhawks do well on the boards on the road. | | FT Rate | KU 60-18%
| UCLA 31-27%
| | Four Factors Overall
| An even battle in TO and rebounding will set the stage for KU's domination in eFG% and FT attempts to rout the Bruins.
| A very slight advantage in FT attempts wasn't enough to overcome KU's substantial eFG% advantage and slight edges in other categories. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins/X. Henry (15 pts each) Opp - | KU - Markieff Morris, X. Henry | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Collins Opp - | KU - Markieff Morris (Collins last)
| | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Markieff Morris Opp - | KU - Markieff Morris
| | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Collins, Taylor Opp - | KU - Markieff Morris
| Markieff Morris only KU player above season average. | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Johnson, Reed Opp - | KU - Collins, Marcus Morris | | Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | KU's performance on both sides of the ball depends most on shooting and turnovers. The expected eFG% advantage must materialize for the Jayhawks or this game could get close, and in a hostile environment, with all the pressure on Kansas, who knows what could happen. | KU eFG% to be at least 8% higher than UCLA. | KU 48-41% | EVEN - UCLA did about as well as could be expected here to keep it respectable.
| | Rebounding will be another key. KU has done a great job at getting second-chance points, but the Bruins have shut down their opponents in that area. If KU can't get OREB's, there will be even more pressure for the 1st key above to materialize. | KU to grab at least 36 OREB% | KU had 44 OREB%
| KANSAS - Since KU gave up 39% on defense, this was much needed after all for the comfortable margin.
| | For a variety of reasons, the FT line is predicted to be a huge advantage for KU. The Bruins have done a remarkable job at avoiding blocked shots, so it may frustrate KU, which is accustomed to swatting lots of them away. If this results in foul trouble and leads to more FT attempts for UCLA, this category may not materialize into much of advantage. And of course, KU's FT shooting woes must come to an end. | KU to score at least as many from FT line as UCLA | KU outscored UCLA 12-11
| KANSAS - Maybe wasn't as big as projected, but this was an important area where the Bruins could have capitalized in a typical trap game. |
| |
