Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Kansas at Tennessee Print E-mail
Jan 11, 2010

Tennessee 76 - Kansas 68

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Renaldo Woolridge
Lowest Composite: Tyrel Reed

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Cole Aldrich 5.27 -3.96 9.23
Xavier Henry 1.14 -1.36 2.50
Tyshawn Taylor 1.42 -0.08 1.50
Sherron Collins 2.03 0.78 1.25
Markieff Morris -0.56 -0.76 0.20
Brady Morningstar 0.38 0.22 0.16
Marcus Morris 0.35 0.40 -0.05
C.J. Henry* 0.00 0.05 -0.05
Thomas Robinson* -0.13 0.05 -0.18
Tyrel Reed -0.72 0.75 -1.47

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Renaldo Woolridge  7.35 -4.04 11.39
Bobby Maze 5.64 -2.75 8.40
Scotty Hopson 2.52 -1.86 4.38
Josh Bone 2.10 -0.33 2.43
Skylar McBee 1.93 0.38 1.56
Wayne Chism  0.71 -0.84 1.54
Steven Pearl 0.54 -0.94 1.48
J.P. Prince -0.59 -1.89 1.30
Kenny Hall -0.46 -0.88 0.42

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Renaldo Woolridge
Lowest Composite: Tyrel Reed

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Cole Aldrich 6.97 -5.25 12.22
Xavier Henry 1.46 -1.74 3.20
Tyshawn Taylor 1.88 -0.11 1.99
Sherron Collins 2.12 0.81 1.31
Markieff Morris -1.71 -2.31 0.60
Brady Morningstar 1.01 0.58 0.43
Marcus Morris 0.55 0.63 -0.08
C.J. Henry* 0.00 1.07 -1.07
Thomas Robinson* -1.73 0.72 -2.44
Tyrel Reed -2.21 2.29 -4.50

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Renaldo Woolridge  8.58 -4.72 13.31
Bobby Maze 6.79 -3.31 10.11
Josh Bone 6.94 -1.09 8.03
Steven Pearl 2.15 -3.74 5.89
Scotty Hopson 3.13 -2.31 5.43
J.P. Prince -1.66 -5.36 3.70
Wayne Chism  1.47 -1.75 3.23
Skylar McBee 3.34 0.65 2.69
Kenny Hall -0.79 -1.52 0.73

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

A quick look at the efficiency numbers for Tennessee would immediately alert anyone to the Jayhawks' doom this game.  Josh Bone, a junior guard who had played in only three games all season (1, 6, and 13 minutes in each game respectively), scored an efficiency of +8.03, well above every KU player save Cole Aldrich.

 

It was mostly the one-two punch of Renaldo Woolridge and Bobby Maze though that sealed KU's fate.  In 34 MIN, Woolridge shot a mere 100 eFG% (4-of-6 from 3FG) to clock in at 14 PTS, 8 REB (1 OREB), 1 STL and 0 TO.  His only fault, missing 2 of 4 FT's.  Maze shot "only" 50 eFG% but made 6-of-7 from the FT line, added 7 REB, 8 AST, 1 STL and only 2 TO in 33 MIN.  Although some of the rest of the players had efficiency numbers that were impressive, they didn't play enough for their game impact ratings to be all that meaningful.  But they were all on the positive side and thus added up to enough to compensate for the talent differential between the two teams.

 

For Kansas, only Aldrich had an impressive game on paper.  He only took five shots (60 eFG%) but grabbed 18 REB, including a whopping 8 OREB, blocked 4 shots and made just 1 TO in 30 MIN.  But it was that failure to shoot the ball that Coach Self focused on in his postgame.  Rightfully so, as it doesn't make sense for Aldrich to take so few shots against a team the Jayhawks were supposed to dominate inside.

 

Xavier Henry did finish with a respectable 50 eFG% and 3-of-4 from the FT line to go with his 5 DREB, 1 STL and 1 BLK, but he had 0 AST and 2 TO in 31 MIN.  Not the worst line, mind you, but it certainly didn't help his NBA draft stock.

 

Tyshawn Taylor had a more visible presence, which usually hasn't been a good sign this season.  He made some big shots but finished at only 46 eFG% overall and had 4 TO against his 3 AST and 2 STL.  Sherron Collins' ratings probably suffered a bit from the desperation 3FG's at the end of the game, but nonetheless he made only 40 eFG% and also threw it away 4 times against his 5 AST.  He had 0 STL.  His defensive rating was positive (bad), and according to my dashboard at the time of the game, he was the "Key Player" on defense.  Meanwhile, Morningstar was the "Key Player" on offense, and his offensive impact rating was pretty dismal (barely above zero).

 

On paper, it was Tyrel Reed who fared worst of all.  He made only 1-of-5 shots and, other than 2 PF's, had nothing else to show for his 13 unlucky MIN.

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

(pts per 100 poss) Kansas Opponent
Offensive Performance 113.1 128.1
Defensive Performance 94.5 81.4
ANALYSIS: It's not like KU's numbers represent a steaming pile of *(^#.  The Jayhawks came in around 13 points better than average on offense and 6.5 better on defense.  They were simply outplayed by an even more impressive Volunteer team this day.  When KU had the ball, it was UT's stronger defense that was the story.  When UT had the ball, they had a sensational offense going up against only a slightly better-than-average KU defense.

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasTennis
eFG% 15.0
TO Rate 9.2
O-Reb%4.3
 
FreethrowsFT Pct4.9
 
FT Attempts 4.9
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMMENT:  Shockingly, this was the second consecutive game where KU had a healthy disadvantage in eFG%.  Still, KU leads the nation in eFG% defense (weak schedule to thank for that).  The FT line was a stalemate in points, but UT did a much better job of utilizing it if you look at the FTA/FGA metric.  The bottom line for this game came down to much better shooting by the Vols and very poor decision making with the ball by the Jayhawks.

 

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