Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Kansas at Nebraska Print E-mail
Jan 15, 2010

Kansas 84 - Nebraska 72

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Marcus Morris
Lowest Composite: Christian Standhardinger

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Marcus Morris 8.57 -0.02 8.59
Sherron Collins 7.27 1.83 5.44
Tyrel Reed 4.97 -0.05 5.02
Brady Morningstar 3.66 0.55 3.11
Markieff Morris 2.61 0.06 2.54
Cole Aldrich -0.27 -2.79 2.51
Tyshawn Taylor 1.55 1.78 -0.24
Elijah Johnson* -0.79 -0.09 -0.70
Thomas Robinson* -0.79 0.00 -0.79
Xavier Henry -0.42 0.81 -1.23

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Brandon Richardson 7.84 -0.23 8.07
Brian Diaz 4.14 0.38 3.76
Sek Henry 4.01 1.12 2.89
Ryan Anderson 2.73 0.75 1.99
Lance Jeter 1.17 0.72 0.45
Eshaunte Jones -0.03 1.06 -1.09
Christian Standhardinger -0.05 1.75 -1.80

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Marcus Morris
Lowest Composite: Christian Standhardinger

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Marcus Morris 17.90 -0.04 17.94
Tyrel Reed 15.57 -0.15 15.72
Markieff Morris 7.62 0.19 7.43
Sherron Collins 9.38 2.36 7.01
Cole Aldrich -0.57 -5.82 5.25
Brady Morningstar 5.73 0.86 4.88
Tyshawn Taylor 2.19 2.52 -0.34
Xavier Henry -0.70 1.37 -2.07
Thomas Robinson* -4.33 0.00 -4.33
Elijah Johnson* -17.31 -1.95 -15.37

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Brandon Richardson 16.36 -0.49 16.86
Brian Diaz 6.73 0.61 6.11
Sek Henry 5.33 1.49 3.84
Ryan Anderson 3.75 1.02 2.72
Lance Jeter 1.42 0.87 0.55
Eshaunte Jones -0.04 1.46 -1.50
Christian Standhardinger -0.11 4.04 -4.15

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

You can't say Bill Self doesn't know how to motivate his players using starting jobs. Relegated to coming off the bench for the first time, Marcus Morris responded with one of his better performances of the season.  He shot a mere 100 eFG% on his way to 19 PTS, 7 REB (4 OREB!), 1 AST, 1 STL and 0 TO in just 21 MIN.  Think that's efficient enough?  It would have been even more staggering if he hadn't missed half of his 6 free throws.  His brother Markieff actually checked in at a higher eFG%, if you can believe that.  He made both of his shots, one a 3-pointer, to finish at 125 eFG% but with significantly less impact.

 

The two best backcourt performers were the always dependable Sherron Collins and the three-point specialist Tyrel Reed.  Collins had the better impact rating by virtue of more than twice the playing time (34 vs 14 MIN).  Collins shot an amazing 73 eFG% and finished with 22 PTS, 5 AST, 2 REB and 2 TO, although he failed to record a STL.  Reed made 3-of-5 from behind the arc and finished with 92 eFG%, 11 PTS, 1 REB and 2 AST without a turnover.

 

Cole Aldrich's numbers came back down from his last outing.  Although, disturbingly, he was once again MIA on offense.  In fact, he rated negative there.  Playing in only half the game, Aldrich attempted only 4 FG's and made 1 but did finish with 9 REB (2 OREB), 3 BLK, 1 AST and 1 STL against 2 TO.  On a night where it seemed no one from either side was playing defense, Aldrich had by far the best defensive numbers of anyone on the court.  This could have been perhaps the most lopsided effort he's ever had with respect to offensive vs defensive rating.

 

Brady Morningstar had himself a nice game on offense, living up to his "Key Player" status there.  He made both of his 2FG shots and added 4 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK and 1 TO in 28 MIN.  The man he subs for, Tyshawn Taylor, didn't have a great outing. Taylor shot a lot better, sure.  He made 63 eFG% for a change, enough to make it look like he had a great game.  But his 31 MIN also meant he got a lot of "credit" for KU's poor defense.  In addition, Taylor had 3 TO against only 2 AST with 0 STL.

 

And what of the man who many have called the second best freshman in the country?  Well, he must be hitting the second biggest freshman wall, as he had another subpar outing.  This time, he checked in the lowest of any player with 10+ minutes.  Xavier Henry shot only 38 eFG% (2-of-6 from 3FG) and finished with a paltry 6 PTS in 26 MIN.

 

For Nebraska, it turns out that Brandon Richardson was the man.  In just 21 MIN, he shot an eye-popping 108 eFG% (3-of-4 from 3FG) and made all of his 5 FT's to finish with 18 PTS, 2 REB, 1 STL and 1 TO.  Too bad for NU that he was the only guy who rated negative (good) on defense.  The only other player with impressive numbers was Brian Diaz who put on a clinic in the paint.  Diaz made 70 eFG% to contribute 15 PTS but only 1 REB.  He did add 2 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK and 2 TO. 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

(pts per 100 poss) Kansas Opponent
Offensive Performance 141.5 131.2
Defensive Performance 103.5 108.9
ANALYSIS: Both teams forgot to bring their defenses with them.  When KU had the ball, it was about a net 32 in KU's favor driven by a sizzling KU offense and worse than average defense by NU.  When NU had the ball, it was a 28 pt net edge for NU with an about-average KU defense and super efficient NU offense.  With the talent disparity, NU was needing a much bigger edge to have a chance, but instead KU had the edge in performance.

 

Four Factor Analysis

(actual statistics moved down)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasNebraska
eFG%18.1
 
TO Rate 4.9
O-Reb%5.1
 
FreethrowsFT Pct0.4
 
FT Attempts3.6
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Projected Key Factors

 

At least 75% likely to be important:

  • Nebraska eFG% - Huskers shot 54% vs projected 43% and caused a nice scare.
  • Nebraska TO% - Only 14% vs projected 22%, which really helped their offense.
  • Nebraska OREB% - Slightly worse than projected, 21 vs 24%.
  • Kansas TO% - A little better than projected, 20 vs 23%.

 

Between 50-75% likely to be important:

  • None

 

Between 25-50% likely to be important:

  • Kansas eFG% - An incredibe 72% vs 61% projected.

 

 

BOTTOM LINE - The projected final score was roughly in line with the actual in terms of ratios (both teams scored higher than expected).  If KU hadn't shot 72 eFG%, NU may have won this game, and I'd be talking about how the two factors that did it were NU's eFG% and low TO%, both of which were in the >75% likelihood category.  Fortunately, the one thing that did save KU was at least mentioned in one of the categories, albeit the lowest one.  Chalk this one up as a game where the important factors were certainly identified correctly by the regression but didn't necessarily predict the final result.

 


 



 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 73-57  KU 84-72 
 Tempo (# poss)
 68  64 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 61-43%  KU 72-54%
 Wow, just wow.
 TO Rate (lo better)  NU 23-22%  NU 20-14%  KU just not forcing TO's anymore.
 O-Reb%  KU 28-24%
 KU 39-21%
 Those skinny interior Huskers sure could shoot but couldn't rebound much.
 FT Rate  KU 42-31%
 KU 58-40%
 Both teams got to the line more than anticipated.
 Four Factors Overall
 Better shooting from the field and more cracks at freebies from the line add up to a KU rout.
 Tough for any team to lose when it shoots 72 eFG%, but it was conceivable if NU had shot well above 60 or so themselves.  The rest of the factors kinda balanced each other out, with the exception of better FT utilization by KU.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - X. Henry, Collins

 Opp - Standhardinger, Anderson

 KU - Collins, Marcus Morris

 Opp - Richardson, Diaz

 
 Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)

 KU - Collins

 Opp - Anderson

 KU - Marcus Morris (Collins #2)

 Opp - Richardson (Anderson #4)

 
 Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)

 KU - Markieff Morris

 Opp - Anderson

 KU - Marcus Morris (Markieff #3)

 Opp - Richardson (Anderson #4)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Collins, Taylor

 Opp - Jeter, Anderson

 KU - Marcus Morris, Reed

 Opp - Richardson, Diaz

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Reed, Aldrich

 Opp - McCray, Gallegos

 KU - Aldrich, Taylor

 Opp - Standhardinger, Jones

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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