Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Hofstra at Kansas Print E-mail
Nov 15, 2009

Kansas 101 - Hofstra 65

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Xavier Henry
Lowest Composite: Cornelius Vines

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Xavier Henry 10.39 -1.70 12.09
Cole Aldrich 2.92 -3.39 6.31
Sherron Collins 4.10 -0.69 4.79
Markieff Morris 2.42 -2.17 4.58
Marcus Morris 2.65 -1.68 4.33
Elijah Johnson 2.67 -0.66 3.32
Tyshawn Taylor 0.99 -1.95 2.94
Chase Buford* 0.88 0.25 0.63
Tyrel Reed -1.47 -1.94 0.47
Conner Teahan* -0.24 -0.47 0.23
Jordan Juenemann* -0.69 0.00 -0.69
Thomas Robinson -4.69 -1.50 -3.19

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Halil Kanacevic 3.09 -3.92 7.01
Charles Jenkins 3.65 -2.09 5.74
Miklos Szabo 3.33 1.49 1.84
Greg Washington* 0.20 0.65 -0.46
Chaz Williams 0.40 1.47 -1.07
Yves Jules* -2.78 0.13 -2.91
Nathaniel Lester -1.83 1.91 -3.75
Cornelius Vines -4.28 2.31 -6.59

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Xavier Henry
Lowest Composite: Cornelius Vines 

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Xavier Henry 15.41 -2.52 17.93
Markieff Morris 7.17 -6.43 13.60
Cole Aldrich 4.33 -5.03 9.36
Marcus Morris 4.29 -2.71 7.00
Elijah Johnson 5.58 -1.37 6.95
Sherron Collins 5.04 -0.85 5.88
Chase Buford* 7.84 2.24 5.60
Tyshawn Taylor 1.41 -2.78 4.19
Tyrel Reed -3.50 -4.61 1.11
Conner Teahan* -1.07 -2.10 1.03
Thomas Robinson -9.81 -3.13 -6.68
Jordan Juenemann* -8.24 0.00 -8.24

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Halil Kanacevic 3.55 -4.50 8.05
Charles Jenkins 3.52 -2.01 5.52
Miklos Szabo 6.59 2.94 3.64
Chaz Williams 0.38 1.41 -1.03
Greg Washington* 0.78 2.59 -1.80
Nathaniel Lester -2.42 2.52 -4.94
Cornelius Vines -4.61 2.49 -7.11
Yves Jules* -12.36 0.58 -12.95

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Hofstra
Offensive Performance
125.7 102.7
Defensive Performance 80.2 102.9

 Comments

It's hard to put too much stock into these numbers so early in the season.  The adjusted efficiencies on both sides of the ball right now are based on what a team looked like at the end of last season that was rated about the same level, with adjustments to reflect that the team is better on offense or defense (based on this season's early results).

 

So, best guess is that KU was sensational on both sides of the ball, while Hofstra was essentially an average team, with maybe a slightly better job on the offensive end.

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasHofstra
eFG%26.0
 
TO Rate5.3 
O-Reb%7.5
 
FreethrowsFT Pct0.9
 
FT Attempts17.1
 

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

What an incredible debut from KU's heralded newcomer, Xavier Henry.  By now, most everyone knows he broke the KU freshman debut record with 27 points, but it's even more impressive how efficiently he did it.  An astounding 88 eFG% was the highlight (included 5-of-8 from 3FG) to go with 5 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK and ZERO turnovers.  That's right, he certainly didn't play like a freshman.  He was aggressive, deadly and efficient.  What if he'd played more than 24 minutes?  The way things were going, he may even have had a chance to break the legendary John Wall's pre-established records!  Let's hope this is a sign of things to come, not the peak of Henry's season.

 

While Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins had the next highest impact scores, it was Markieff Morris whose efficiency is the next big story.  In just 12 minutes, he scored 6 PTS on 67 eFG%, 7 REB (4 OREB), 2 STL and just 1 TO.  Perhaps even more importantly, he only had 1 personal foul, a far cry from his freshman debut.  He made both of his FT attempts.  He certainly did enough to justify his starting role.

 

We won't talk much about Aldrich and Collins, as they are two of the most well-known performers on the team.  Just note that Aldrich had a better game on paper, with 80 eFG% shooting and 4 BLK, while Collins did the bulk of the scoring (23 PTS) on a very nice 60 eFG% shooting night (4-of-10 from behind the arc).  Because KU shot 60 eFG% as a team, Collins doesn't get as much credit for his scoring, since he shot about the same rate as the team.

 

Elijah Johnson also had a nice debut, though not nearly as eye-popping as Henry's.  Johnson shot a sizzling 80 eFG% (no 3FG attempted) and chipped in 8 PTS, 4 REB (3 OREB), 1 AST, 1 STL and 2 TO in just 17 MIN.  He gets a lot of credit because three of his boards on offense.  On a night when KU was so efficient offensively, those turnovers hurt more.

 

Not all the freshmen debuts were something to write home about.  Rather, not something GOOD to write home about.  After generating tremendous buzz and excitement from two solid exhibition performances, Thomas Robinson finally came back to Earth with the worst numbers on the team in his first official game as a Jayhawk.  Shooting just 1-of-5 (20 eFG%) and committing 3 TO were too much to overcome with 5 REB (only 1 OREB), 2 AST and 1 STL.  Given Robinson's reputation for working hard and being a "motor", it shouldn't be difficult to see this as being a motivator for the next few games.  There is no doubt he is talented, so let's see when that comes through.

 

Nothing Earth-shattering came from Tyshawn Taylor or Tyrel Reed's performances.  Taylor shot very well (63 eFG%) from the field but struggled at the line (3-of-6).  He had 6 AST against 2 TO and chipped in 1 STL and 1 BLK.  Reed surprisingly missed all four of his shots but made up for it by avoiding any TO's and adding 3 AST, 1 STL, 1 BLK and zero PF.

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
 Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 101-65 
 Tempo (# poss)
 79 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 60-40% With the 26-pt advantage that came with this, it was going to take a miracle for Hofstra to do anything else to counter.
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 22-15%
 Nice to see the first season of the game did not play out too sloppily for the favorites.
 O-Reb% KU 46-28%
 Most games, this should be what it looks like for KU.  Believe it or not, it was the third most important advantage in the game though, behind eFG% and FT attempts.
 FT Rate KU 63-18%
 Though the Jayhawks didn't sizzle once they got there, the FT stripe was a mainstay this game.
 Four Factors Overall
 Impressive domination across the board from KU.  

 

 

 

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