Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Central Arkansas at Kansas Print E-mail
Nov 20, 2009

Kansas 94 - Central Arkansas 44

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Tyrel Reed
Lowest Composite: Mitch Rueter

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Tyrel Reed 6.67 -1.50 8.17
Marcus Morris 3.38 -2.39 5.77
Sherron Collins 3.18 -2.45 5.63
Markieff Morris 4.79 0.08 4.71
Thomas Robinson 1.49 -3.00 4.49
Xavier Henry 2.84 -0.18 3.02
C.J. Henry* 3.08 0.45 2.63
Elijah Johnson 1.74 -0.16 1.90
Chase Buford* 0.42 0.00 0.42
Cole Aldrich -2.43 -2.20 -0.23
Conner Teahan -0.25 0.22 -0.47
Jordan Juenemann* -0.86 0.45 -1.31
Tyshawn Taylor -2.34 -0.07 -2.27

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Chris Henson 3.25 0.63 2.62
Ryan Daniels* 0.37 -0.45 0.82
Robert Crawford* 0.37 0.00 0.37
Chris Williams* -0.88 -1.07 0.19
Quad Sanders* 0.00 0.00 0.00
T.K. Smith* 0.00 0.08 -0.08
Jared Rehmel -0.60 1.28 -1.88
Tadre Sheppard -0.60 1.85 -2.45
Mike Pouncy -1.15 1.74 -2.88
Imad Qahwash -2.32 0.83 -3.15
Dewan Clayborn -3.39 0.61 -4.00
Carlos dos Santos -2.19 2.12 -4.31
Mitch Rueter -4.61 1.09 -5.70

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Tyrel Reed
Lowest Composite: Dewan Clayborn

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Tyrel Reed 15.85 -3.57 19.42
Markieff Morris 14.65 0.25 14.40
C.J. Henry* 14.62 2.12 12.49
Marcus Morris 7.23 -5.12 12.35
Thomas Robinson 3.54 -7.13 10.67
Sherron Collins 5.43 -4.20 9.63
Chase Buford* 5.98 0.00 5.98
Elijah Johnson 5.32 -0.50 5.82
Xavier Henry 5.29 -0.34 5.62
Cole Aldrich -4.34 -3.92 -0.42
Conner Teahan -1.06 0.96 -2.01
Tyshawn Taylor -5.27 -0.15 -5.12
Jordan Juenemann* -12.28 6.37 -18.65

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Chris Henson 11.58 2.24 9.34
Robert Crawford* 7.94 0.00 7.94
Ryan Daniels* 2.65 -3.23 5.87
Chris Williams* -6.30 -7.64 1.35
Quad Sanders* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jared Rehmel -0.80 1.71 -2.51
T.K. Smith* 0.00 3.57 -3.57
Imad Qahwash -3.68 1.31 -4.99
Mike Pouncy -2.04 3.10 -5.14
Tadre Sheppard -1.29 3.95 -5.24
Carlos dos Santos -3.61 3.49 -7.09
Mitch Rueter -7.04 1.67 -8.71
Dewan Clayborn -9.66 1.74 -11.41

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Central Arkansas
Offensive Performance
132.4 81.2
Defensive Performance 82.8 112.5

 Comments

Again, we're still using adjustments for the fact that it's early season, and efficiencies are pretty off.

 

No surprises here, as KU was incredible on both sides of the ball, but perhaps moreso on offense.  If the Jayhawks had done better at defensive rebounding, this would be even more lopsided.

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasCentral Arkansas
eFG%45.2
 
TO Rate11.6
 
O-Reb% -2.4
FreethrowsFT Pct -1.7
FT Attempts3.7
 

 

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

As is typical in games against such inferior competition, unusual names rise to the top.  So, while normally it wouldn't mean a whole lot to see Tyrel Reed lead the team in impact and efficiency, there is some element of relief for many fans (and probably Tyrel) that he came through finally.  Yet, I can't help wondering why anyone thought Reed shouldn't be playing much?  The mantra after the first two games was, "If Reed isn't hitting his 3FG's, he serves no purpose to the team."  That may be somewhat true, given his shooting is his strong suit, but what would we have Coach Self do, look into his magic crystal ball and only insert Reed into the lineup when he's going to hit his shots?  Why, when we have an entire season of data from 2008-09 showing Reed hitting 39% of his treys do some people all of a sudden think he won't hit them this year, on an even stronger team?  That's the only explanation I can think of when I see someone arguing against playing Reed.  Slumps happen to the best of them, and Reed simply happened to start with a 2-game slump.  He's got plenty of weaknesses, but you can't argue against playing him on the basis that he isn't hitting his shots -- at least, certainly not after two games.  I'll get off my soapbox now.  Reed hit an unbelievable 120 eFG% to finish with 12 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST, 1 STL and 0 TO in just 18 MIN.  Welcome back, Tyrel.
 
The Morris twins continue to impress, this time with both turning in double-digit efficiency numbers.  They shot a combined 8-of-9 from the field.  Marcus had a greater impact because of his greater playing time, but Markieff actually edged his brother out in efficiency.  While Markieff pulled in 2 OREB, Marcus had 3 STL.  Neither was in foul trouble, another good sign for the resurgent twin brothers.
 
Thomas Robinson finally decided to join in on the fun.  Although he shot only 33 eFG%, he controlled the glass with 11 REB (3 OREB) and was a force on defense (3 BLK, 1 STL) while committing 0 TO.  That was good for a double-digit efficiency level and a potential return to some relevance in the lineup.  His flair on dunks was a big energy boost as well.  Let's watch and see what he looks like over the next few games before making too many judgments.  And of course, we need to see more than 2 minutes from him against a non-cupcake team.
 
Now to the other brothers on the team, Xavier and C.J. Henry.  The starter, Xavier, had a game somewhere in line between first two.  Basically, he wasn't a liability on defense but played a strong game on offense.  He shot 63 eFG% (2-of-3 from 3FG) to finish with 12 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST and 1 TO in 23 MIN.  Brother C.J. saw his debut with KU.  And he didn't disappoint.  Though it was at the end of the game, when it was meaningless, he shot 100 eFG% (2-of-3 from 3FG) to add 8 PTS and 1 OREB in 9 MIN.  Not bad for a guy with a knee at 80% and his first game in years.  Wait to see whether he plays meaningful minutes before anointing him as part of the rotation though.
 
Against a weak opponent, it was disappointing to see Cole Aldrich slip so much and to see yet another disappointing game from Tyshawn Taylor.  Aldrich just didn't have the same energy he usually brings and was hounded and double-teamed all night.  He shot just 43 eFG% but contributed 5 DREB, 1 AST, 3 BLK and 2 TO in 24 MIN.  Taylor's problem was a lot of missed shots (1-of-6 from field, 2-of-4 from FT).  Thank goodness he had 0 TO, but he didn't dish as well as usual, finishing with only 2 AST.  All in all, not the kind of turnaround game many fans had hoped for from him.
 
 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 94-67  KU 94-44
 Well, I got one of them right.
 Tempo (# poss)
 72  65 Seems like most games are slow so far this season.

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 58-36%  KU 66-26%
 Hard to believe that the projection was understating KU's advantage! 
 TO Rate (lo better)  CAU 25-22%  KU 28-11%
 Probably the biggest reason this game turned out way more lopsided than projected.
 O-Reb%  KU 58-31%
 UCA 40-33%
 Don't wipe your eyes - not a typo.  No excuse for KU not to win this battle.
 FT Rate  KU 60-40%
 KU 41-35% 
 Four Factors Overall
 Except for turnovers, it should be domination across the board for KU.
 Only one team could make any shots, and that same team rarely turned it over (i.e., took shots every trip down), so you do the math.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - X. Henry, Aldrich

 Opp - Pouncy, Santos

 KU - Collins, X. Henry, Marcus Morris, Reed

 Opp - Rehmel, Henson, Pouncy

 
 Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - Sheppard

 KU - Reed (Aldrich #8)

 Opp - Henson (Sheppard #3)

 
 Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - Sheppard

 KU - Reed (Aldrich #8)

 Opp - Henson (Sheppard #5)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - None

 Opp - Pouncy, Sheppard

 KU - Reed, Robinson

 Opp - Henson, Qahwash

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Henry, Robinson

 Opp - Rehmel

 KU - Aldrich, Taylor

 Opp - Santos, Rueter

 

 

 

 

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