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Recap: California at Kansas |
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Dec 22, 2009 |
Kansas 84 - California 69 PSAN
"Total Impact" RatingsAll ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent | PSAN70
"Efficiency" RatingsPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions" | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Jamal Boykin
Lowest Composite: Markhuri Sanders-Frison (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Tyshawn Taylor | 5.50 | -2.22 | 7.72 | | Cole Aldrich | 3.02 | -4.45 | 7.46 | | Brady Morningstar | 2.89 | -1.98 | 4.87 | | Marcus Morris | 1.70 | -2.57 | 4.27 | | Xavier Henry | 0.25 | -3.63 | 3.89 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.80 | -1.87 | 3.67 | | Sherron Collins | 1.27 | -1.55 | 2.82 | | Markieff Morris | -0.26 | -1.15 | 0.88 | | Elijah Johnson* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Thomas Robinson* | -2.33 | 0.62 | -2.95 | For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Jamal Boykin | 4.40 | -4.94 | 9.34 | | Patrick Christopher | 2.77 | -0.43 | 3.20 | | Theo Robertson | 3.03 | 0.03 | 3.00 | | Omondi Amoke* | 1.40 | -0.10 | 1.50 | | Max Zhang* | 0.00 | -0.57 | 0.57 | | Jorge Gutierrez | -2.61 | -2.88 | 0.28 | | Jerome Randle | -2.26 | -1.05 | -1.21 | | Markhuri Sanders-Frison | -1.72 | 0.18 | -1.90 | *Rating not based on enough data. | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Cole Aldrich
Lowest Composite: Markhuri Sanders-Frison (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 4.91 | -7.24 | 12.15 | | Tyrel Reed | 5.86 | -6.07 | 11.93 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 7.03 | -2.84 | 9.87 | | Brady Morningstar | 4.93 | -3.37 | 8.30 | | Marcus Morris | 1.96 | -2.97 | 4.93 | | Xavier Henry | 0.29 | -4.20 | 4.49 | | Sherron Collins | 1.30 | -1.58 | 2.88 | | Markieff Morris | -0.85 | -3.73 | 2.88 | | Elijah Johnson* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Thomas Robinson* | -9.26 | 2.48 | -11.74 | For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Jamal Boykin | 4.26 | -4.78 | 9.04 | | Omondi Amoke* | 8.33 | -0.61 | 8.95 | | Max Zhang* | 0.00 | -5.14 | 5.14 | | Theo Robertson | 3.39 | 0.03 | 3.36 | | Patrick Christopher | 2.75 | -0.43 | 3.18 | | Jorge Gutierrez | -2.92 | -3.23 | 0.31 | | Jerome Randle | -2.08 | -0.97 | -1.11 | | Markhuri Sanders-Frison | -4.39 | 0.46 | -4.85 | *Rating not based on enough data. |
| Offensive and Defensive Performance
Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team. That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense. This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams. | (pts per 100 poss) | Kansas | California
| Offensive Performance
| 117.7 | 106.4 | | Defensive Performance | 76.0 | 86.5 | Comments Very strong defensive outing for Kansas coupled with a slightly less impressive but oustanding offense nonetheless. Cal didn't exactly struggle, as they had a nice defensive performance with a marginally better-than-average offense. When KU had the ball, it was a fairly even battle in that both teams were about the same distance from average (in the right direction). The big discrepancy was when Cal had the ball, and it was KU controlling the issue. | Four Factor Analysis(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below) What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team? | Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin) | | Statistic Measured | Kansas | California
| | eFG% | 21.2 |
| | TO Rate | | 1.0
| | O-Reb% | 2.1
| | | Freethrows | FT Pct | | 1.3
| | FT Attempts | | 0.7
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Game Projections | | Projection | Actual | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 79-70 | KU 84-69
| | Tempo (# poss)
| 71 | 78 | Going into this game, there was a statistically insignificant, but high nonetheless, correlation between tempo and both offensive and defensive efficiencies for Cal - both in the wrong direction. So, this higher pace may have been a factor in KU's favor.
| FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 58-48% | KU 61-44%
| Though not as bad as projected, Cal's eFG% was second highest allowed by Jayhawks so far this season. KU sizzled meanwhile. | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 21-20% | CAL 23-22%
| Basically even, as projected.
| | O-Reb% | CAL 37-27%
| KU 31-24%
| Better than projected but still not a game where KU got a lot of second-chance opportunities. They shut down Cal's chances though. | | FT Rate | KU 59-27%
| Tie 28%
| The expected advantage didn't materialize for KU. | Four Factors Overall
| FT attempts will be an equal partner with eFG% in helping KU to a modest margin of victory. | Fairly even in all categories except domination by KU in the eFG%, which is where the most damage can be done. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - X. Henry, Collins Opp - Randle, Christopher | KU - Collins, Marcus Morris Opp - Christopher, Randle | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - X. Henry Opp - Boykin | KU - Taylor (X. Henry #5) Opp - Boykin | Fantastic numbers for Taylor. | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - X. Henry Opp - Boykin | KU - Aldrich (X. Henry #6) Opp - Boykin | Super high efficiency for Reed in 2nd consecutive game.
| | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Taylor, Morningstar Opp - Gutierrez, Robertson | KU - Reed, Taylor Opp - Boykin | Reed was projected to struggle but did great. Morningstar did end up doing much better than his 1st game performance.
| | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Markieff Morris Opp - Amoke, Sanders-Frison | KU - Markieff Morris, X. Henry Opp - Sanders-Frison, Randle | | Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | Though it is always important, KU's eFG% in this game is of particular interest. For some reason, not only is CAL's opp eFG% significantly correlated to its defensive officiency but also to its offensive efficiency (negatively). Since KU is projected to give up 48 eFG%, that 58 eFG% of its own had better come to close to materializing to help ease the pressure in other aspects of the game. | KU to shoot at least 55 eFG% | KU shot 61 eFG%
| KANSAS | | Cole Aldrich is the current "Key Player" based on this site's analysis. He is going up against very talented players in Boykin and Amoke, but they are both at least 3 inches shorter than he is. If this is not the game where Aldrich snaps out of his shooting funk, it could spell trouble for KU. He is projected to make 3-of-6 FG's, so 50% is a nice benchmark to hit. | Aldrich to make at least 50% of FG's.
| Aldrich made 67% | KANSAS | | Markieff Morris is the most efficient player on KU so far this season, but he isn't going to do much if he's saddled with foul trouble. He must get his typical 15-20 minutes to help with second-chance points and give Aldrich some fresh legs. | Markieff Morris to play at least 15 MIN. | Played only 11 MIN
| CAL - He wasn't even all that efficient when he was in the game.
| FT attempts advantage is a key because it's a KU strength and CAL weakness. It must materialize for the Jayhawks to make things easier.
| KU to attempt at least 10 more FT's than CAL
| KU attempted 1 FEWER than CAL
| CAL - Great job of minimizing a potentially derailing category. |
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