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Dec 31, 2009 |
Kansas 81 - Belmont 51 PSAN
"Total Impact" RatingsAll ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent | PSAN70
"Efficiency" RatingsPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions" | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Cole Aldrich
Lowest Composite: Kerron Johnson (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | 0.99 | -7.82 | 8.81 | | Marcus Morris | 3.91 | -2.29 | 6.20 | | C.J. Henry* | 2.69 | -2.34 | 5.03 | | Elijah Johnson | 2.29 | -1.39 | 3.68 | | Sherron Collins | 0.32 | -3.09 | 3.41 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.05 | -1.07 | 2.12 | | Tyrel Reed | 0.17 | -1.76 | 1.93 | | Thomas Robinson* | 1.57 | -0.17 | 1.74 | | Brady Morningstar | -0.16 | -1.49 | 1.33 | | Jeff Withey* | -0.45 | -0.33 | -0.11 | | Xavier Henry | -3.36 | -3.20 | -0.16 | | Markieff Morris | -2.49 | -2.20 | -0.29 | | Conner Teahan* | -0.63 | -0.17 | -0.46 | For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Drew Hanlen | 3.66 | -0.26 | 3.92 | | Jonny Rice* | 0.65 | -0.84 | 1.49 | | Jon House | -0.67 | -1.25 | 0.58 | | Brandon Baker | -0.58 | -0.98 | 0.40 | | Adam Barnes* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Scott Saunders | -0.97 | -0.92 | -0.06 | | Mick Hedgepeth | -2.01 | -1.65 | -0.36 | | Trevor Noack* | -0.93 | 0.14 | -1.07 | | Jordan Campbell | -3.97 | -2.53 | -1.44 | | Ian Clark | -2.90 | -1.21 | -1.70 | | Keaton Belcher | -2.32 | 0.26 | -2.58 | | Kerron Johnson | -3.82 | -1.11 | -2.71 | *Rating not based on enough data. | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Elijah Johnson
Lowest Composite: Kerron Johnson (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | C.J. Henry* | 10.89 | -9.46 | 20.35 | | Elijah Johnson | 8.35 | -5.07 | 13.41 | | Cole Aldrich | 1.34 | -10.55 | 11.89 | | Marcus Morris | 6.78 | -3.98 | 10.75 | | Thomas Robinson* | 7.16 | -0.76 | 7.92 | | Tyrel Reed | 0.38 | -4.01 | 4.39 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 2.12 | -2.17 | 4.29 | | Sherron Collins | 0.38 | -3.62 | 4.00 | | Brady Morningstar | -0.37 | -3.40 | 3.02 | | Xavier Henry | -4.89 | -4.66 | -0.24 | | Jeff Withey* | -2.73 | -2.03 | -0.70 | | Markieff Morris | -9.08 | -8.01 | -1.07 | | Conner Teahan* | -7.67 | -2.03 | -5.64 | For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Jonny Rice* | 5.90 | -7.67 | 13.57 | | Drew Hanlen | 6.06 | -0.43 | 6.50 | | Brandon Baker | -2.12 | -3.56 | 1.44 | | Jon House | -1.44 | -2.68 | 1.24 | | Adam Barnes* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Scott Saunders | -2.53 | -2.38 | -0.15 | | Mick Hedgepeth | -2.71 | -2.23 | -0.49 | | Jordan Campbell | -5.16 | -3.29 | -1.87 | | Ian Clark | -3.78 | -1.57 | -2.21 | | Keaton Belcher | -3.38 | 0.38 | -3.76 | | Kerron Johnson | -8.18 | -2.38 | -5.80 | | Trevor Noack* | -5.67 | 0.85 | -6.52 | *Rating not based on enough data. |
| Offensive and Defensive Performance
Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team. That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense. This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams. | (pts per 100 poss) | Kansas | Opponent | | Offensive Performance | 107.6 | 81.9 | | Defensive Performance | 64.4 | 86.5 | ANALYSIS: When KU had the ball, it was actually Belmont with the edge in performance, as their 86.5 performance is farther away from the average efficiency of about 100 than is KU's offense of 107.6. But the key element of this game took place when Belmont had the ball, as poor Bruin offense (81.9) was absolutely clamped down by suffocating KU defense (64.4). You can see why in the Four Factors below, but this was a game that the KU defense won in combination with poor BU offense. | Four Factor Analysis(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below) What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team? | Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin) | | Statistic Measured | Kansas | Belmont
| | eFG% | 29.9 |
| | TO Rate | 6.0
| | | O-Reb% | | 0.2
| | Freethrows | FT Pct | 2.2
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| | FT Attempts | 5.8
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Pre-Game Projected Key Factors At least 50% likely to be important: - Kansas TO% - Result: 19.5% - Comment: KU did its job and came in right around the projected 19%.
- Belmont TO% - Result: 28.6% - Comment: The Bruins turned it over more than expected, and it clearly hurt.
Between 20-25% likely to be important: - Belmont OREB% - Result: 25.6% - Comment: Fell short of 30% projection.
- Belmont eFG% - Result: 36.9% - Comment: Primary reason for the huge eFG% scoring margin edge (see above).
BOTTOM LINE - KU was projected to win 88-61, which was a 59/41% split of the points, but it actually won with a 61/39% split, somewhat better than projected. This is about consistent with the key factors results above, although it's difficult to use a game where KU controlled pretty much every aspect of the game as a litmus test for the validity of the key factors analysis. This will become more evident in future games where one team will control only some of the factors and in some cases, one team will come in better/worse than projections. Game Projections | | Projection | Actual | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 88-61 | KU 81-51
| | Tempo (# poss)
| 73 | 77 | Seemed like Belmont tried to push it sometimes. KenPom.com shows that on both ends of the court, Belmont suffers with increased pace. Not sure why they did that.
| FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 59-45% | KU 61-37%
| | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 26-19% | KU 29-20%
| | | O-Reb% | KU 43-30%
| BU 26-25% | Surprising to see KU so low on OREB%, but this probably speaks to the disappointment that Self felt about his team's performance - no toughness. | | FT Rate | KU 46-35%
| KU 37-12%
| Excellent job of denying BU free points.
| Four Factors Overall
| Nice edge in all the factors, eFG% being the biggest, should support a comfortable KU victory.
| Other than poor offensive rebounding, a resounding success in all areas for KU, led by eFG% as usual.
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| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - X. Henry, Collins Opp - Belcher/Clark/Hedgepeth | KU - Marcus Morris, Aldrich Opp - Clark/Hanlen | KU really bothered Belcher and Hedgepeth, both of whom shot well below 40 eFG%. | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Hanlen | KU - Aldrich Opp - Hanlen | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Markieff Morris Opp - Hanlen | KU - Johnson (Markieff Morris in last place) Opp - Hanlen | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Robinson, Markieff Morris Opp - Hanlen, Johnson | KU - Johnson, Marcus Morris Opp - Hanlen, House | Marcus Morris shining despite projected struggle. | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Marcus Morris Opp - Campbell, House | KU - Markieff Morris, X. Henry Opp - Belcher, Johnson | Terrible game for Markieff Morris and Belmont's Johnson. |
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