Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Texas A&M at Kansas Print E-mail
Jan 20, 2009

Kansas 73 - Texas A&M 53

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Mario Little
Lowest Composite: Dash Harris

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Mario Little 7.79 0.27 7.53
Brady Morningstar 1.87 -3.88 5.75
Cole Aldrich 2.61 -2.98 5.58
Sherron Collins -0.90 -3.60 2.70
Marcus Morris 0.85 -1.58 2.44
Tyshawn Taylor 1.09 -0.99 2.08
Tyrel Reed -0.13 -0.85 0.72
Travis Releford* -0.90 -1.61 0.71
Matt Kleinmann* 0.00 -0.45 0.45
Brennan Bechard* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Conner Teahan* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Quintrell Thomas* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chase Buford* -1.42 -0.34 -1.08
Markieff Morris -1.64 0.20 -1.84

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
David Loubeau 2.53 0.35 2.18
Andrew Darko* 1.09 -0.42 1.51
Bryan Davis 0.61 -0.59 1.19
Josh Carter -1.16 -1.74 0.58
Derrick Roland 0.38 0.37 0.00
Bryson Graham* -0.03 0.00 -0.03
Chinemelu Elonu -0.94 -0.78 -0.16
Shawn Schepel* -0.51 0.00 -0.51
Nathan Walkup* -0.65 0.17 -0.82
Donald Sloan -3.17 -1.62 -1.55
B.J. Holmes -2.60 -0.05 -2.55
Dash Harris -2.30 0.38 -2.68

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Mario Little
Lowest Composite: Markieff Morris 

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Mario Little 23.33 0.80 22.53
Matt Kleinmann* 0.00 -18.96 18.96
Cole Aldrich 3.52 -4.03 7.55
Brady Morningstar 2.45 -5.08 7.53
Marcus Morris 1.79 -3.32 5.11
Sherron Collins -1.11 -4.44 3.33
Travis Releford* -4.21 -7.51 3.30
Tyshawn Taylor 1.53 -1.38 2.91
Tyrel Reed -0.39 -2.54 2.15
Brennan Bechard* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Conner Teahan* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Quintrell Thomas* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Markieff Morris -6.26 0.75 -7.01
Chase Buford* -59.55 -14.38 -45.17

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Andrew Darko* 45.52 -17.59 63.11
David Loubeau 7.59 1.06 6.53
Bryan Davis 0.98 -0.94 1.92
Josh Carter -1.62 -2.43 0.81
Derrick Roland 0.72 0.71 0.00
Chinemelu Elonu -1.45 -1.21 -0.24
Bryson Graham* -0.54 0.00 -0.54
Donald Sloan -5.32 -2.72 -2.60
B.J. Holmes -4.74 -0.10 -4.65
Dash Harris -4.19 0.68 -4.88
Nathan Walkup* -4.56 1.19 -5.75
Shawn Schepel* -21.46 0.00 -21.46

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 


 

My Observations

 

It's hard not to salivate as a KU fan when Mario Little shows his stuff like he did this game.  Is he going to shoot perfectly from the field every game?  Of course not.  But there is no question that his array of skills on the offensive end are something this Kansas team had been sorely lacking the first half of the season.  Once he is at 100%, opposing defenses will have to give him even more attention, relieving some pressure on Collins and Aldrich.

 

Pretty incredible that not one Texas A&M player finished in double figures.  My projections that no player would do better than their averages was fairly accurate, except for Loubeau.

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

No analysis of this game should begin with any player other than Mario Little for Kansas.  He shot an unbelievable 108 eFG% (6-of-6 FG, including 1-of-1 from 3FG), made both his FT's, and added 4 REB (2 OREB) with zero turnovers in 14 MIN.  That's about as efficient a game as possible, and his rating was through the roof as a result.  And none of the shots were really lucky or bounced around and went in.  It will really be interesting to see if Little will settle in as KU's second most efficient player for the duration of the season or if it's just temporary.

 

Morningstar and Aldrich were the other big contributors for KU this game.  If you listened to Fran Fraschilla, you know that Morningstar "moves the ball" very well.  It's a good thing, because this time he didn't shoot particularly well (1-of-3) but grabbed 6 REB (2 OREB), dished 4 AST and swiped 2 STL without turning it over once.  Aldrich failed to add to his massive total of double-doubles, but still sizzled with 62 eFG% shooting, 8 REB (2 OREB), 2 BLK and 1 TO.  He did benefit from several lucky bounces though.

 

When the game was a bit closer, Sherron Collins had a nice stretch of baskets.  Unfortunately, he didn't hit well the rest of the game and finished with only 42 eFG% shooting (2-of-4 from 3FG), 7 AST, 3 STL and 5 TO's.  Those turnovers really end up hurting his ratings, but they didn't feel that bad to an observer because KU was up by so much for most of the game.

 

Marcus Morris hit back-to-back three-pointers and had 2 STL but did little else that was positive.  He managed only 1 DREB, 1 AST and 2 TO's in his 20 MIN.  Taylor started the game with some excellent offense and, like Marcus Morris, finished with 80 eFG% shooting.  But Taylor didn't have any STL, just 1 AST, 3 DREB and 2 TO.  Plus, he fouled a three-point shooter in the act twice.  Morris definitely had the more efficient game of the two, but their overall impact was similar.

 

The player who struggled most was Markieff Morris.  He missed all four of his shots, made only 2-of-4 FT's, but did grab 3 REB (2 OREB) and dish 1 AST with 0 TO's in 11 MIN.  He still had two fouls in that short stretch.  That's just too many missed shots though.

 

The Aggies had only one player with impressive numbers, Loubeau.  This was a bit surprising given his below-average ratings coming in to the game.  As an indicator for A&M's poor offense, Loubeau didn't even shoot well (40 eFG%).  It was his 4 OREB and 3-of-4 from the foul line in only 14 MIN that helped him.

  

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Texas A&M
Offensive Performance
114.2 90.3
Defensive Performance 76.7 94.5

 Comments

When KU had the ball, things went almost exactly as expected, with both teams performing at their season average levels.  But when TAMU had possession, it was a smothering performance by the Jayhawks. By my calculations, it was their fourth best defensive performance of the season.

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasTexas A&M
eFG%19.5 
TO Rate 7.5 
O-Reb% 1.6
FreethrowsFT Pct 2.1
FT Attempts 2.9

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 73-59  KU 73-53
 
 Tempo (# poss)
 65 67 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 57-43%  KU 55-37%
 
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 23-22%  KU 30-18%
 Wow, this was an unexpected "gift" from the Aggies.  It was the second highest TO% by an opponent this season.
 O-Reb% KU 36-29%
 TAMU 35-30% What would the Aggie offense have been like without this advantage?
 FT Rate TAMU 52-38%
 TAMU 45-33%
 
 Four Factors Overall
 The expected FT advantage for Texas A&M won't mean much if the projected eFG% advantage materializes.
 Even if the Aggies had kept their TO's in check, the eFG% advantage would have given it to KU by a small margin.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Collins, Aldrich

 Opp - Carter/Sloan

 KU - Collins/Aldrich

 Opp - Davis/Holmes

 
 Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - Elonu

 KU - Little (Aldrich #3)

 Opp - Loubeau (Elonu #5)

 
 Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - Elonu

 KU - Little (Aldrich #2)

 Opp - Loubeau (Elonu #5)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Morningstar, Reed

 Opp - None

 KU - Little, Morningstar

 Opp - Loubeau, Roland

 FWIW, Little was my highest projection here pre-game, but my boxscore didn't have him playing 10+ minutes, so I didn't list him.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Markieff Morris, Collins

 Opp - Elonu, Holmes

 KU - Markieff Morris, Aldrich

 Opp - Holmes, Elonu

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 The free throw line has been a key advantage for the Aggies all season.  KU's opponents have also done well there, so it may be a key battleground.  KU to limit TAMU's FT attempt advantage to 8 or fewer.  TAMU took 4 more FTA than KU
 KANSAS
 Much of KU's expected eFG% advantage is derived from a high 3FG%.  That needs to materialize for an easy Jayhawk victory.  KU to shoot at least 35% from behind the arc.
 KU shot 38% from behind the arc
 KANSAS

 

 

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