Kansas 92 - Tennessee 85

My Observations

This game didn't really change much in terms of evaluating the strength of either team.  Most models pointed to a modest KU victory and, in the end, that is what it turned out to be.  Seven-point margin at home against a talented, athletic team that doesn't always perform up to snuff.  But one very important factor that was addressed is the maturity and mentality of the young Jayhawks.  Faced with yet another blown lead (potentially), Kansas answered the bell.  Specifically, its two ordained leaders, Aldrich and Collins, had arguably their best performances of the season.  That's what mattered about this game, that the super young Jayhawks could stick with it and hold off an obviously more athletic Tennessee team that was giving them fits with the press.  The Jayhawks essentially grew up, and it was nice that they did it the same game that Mario Little returned.  No, Little didn't impact this game in a big way directly with his play.  But his presence was felt, and it was palpable, at least to me, that this game could signify a turning point of sorts.  We could look back and say that this was where things fell into place for this young team.  Then again, with this season's team, predictability has hardly been a mainstay.

Player Performance Analysis

Finally, we have a game where the two obviously best KU players were #1 and #2 in ratings for the Jayhawks.  To many observers, there was no doubt Collins was the star of the game, yet Aldrich still finished far ahead in impact and efficiency.  Collins' array of physics-defying dribble moves and layups were on full display.  He had a career-high 26 PTS and showed the fire and intensity that had been missing from KU's heart when the team had struggled.  When Collins was out of the game, the Jayhawks didn't look nearly as good on offense.  The numbers would agree that Collins had a terrific game.  It's just that Aldrich's numbers were that much better.  While Collins was shooting a very impressive 57 eFG%, Aldrich was sizzling at 71%, with both taking 14 shot attempts in almost identical minutes played.  Aldrich didn't miss a single free throw, although he only took two, while Collins made 70% of his.  Remember, missed free throws do equal possessions.  In this case, the technical foul where Collins missed both shots wasn't technically (no pun intended) a wasted possession though.  Collins had a stellar 9 AST and 5 REB (1 OREB), while Aldrich had 10 REB (3 OREB) and 1 AST.  Both had similar turnover numbers.  With those categories, you could argue the two had a similar impact and/or efficiency.  But throw in the fact that Aldrich swatted 6 of UT's 2-pt FGA's, and you can see where his edge becomes evident statistically.

And yet, that's not a rock solid case for Aldrich being the better player this day.  A ton of his shots were dunks that were set up by the passer and/or screener, meaning credit should be nearly 50/50 split versus the typical allocation of credit for assists.  And dont' forget that Collins was instrumental in breaking the press with his ability to dribble (not captured on the boxscore).  Collins' enthusiasm and confidence was clearly a factor (also not captured in the boxscore).  If it felt like Collins was the key player to fans, it may have felt that way to his teammates, too, which resulted in a psychological boost from his play.  All in all, you could make a case for either player being the most impactful, but the honor of "star of the game" is proabably more psychologically bestowed than statistically.  And thus, that would have to belong to Collins.

After that, things settle down a bit in rating players.  Morningstar and Reed were next in terms of impact.  Morningstar shot an incredible 79 eFG% (3-of-5 from 3FG) and finished with 12 PTS, 4 REB (2 OREB), 6 AST and 3 TO.  It should be noted that his 3 TO's came in the face of immense pressure from Tennessee on inbounds plays, for which Morningstar was responsible every time.  He burned the Volunteers several times by going long with the pass.  Great game for Morningstar, his fourth best of the year in impact ratings.  Interestingly, although he is known for great defense, he didn't rate out well on defense this game.  He had 0 STL, 0 BLK, 2 PF and 2 DREB in 33 MIN.  On a day where KU's overall defense was not quite as good as usual, it didn't help.  Reed knows what he needs to do ... shoot the three-ball when he's open.  On this day, he made 2 of his 5 attempts (60 eFG%), added 2-of-2 from the foul line and chipped in 2 AST with 0 TO in 24 MIN.  He suffered the same fate as Morningstar on defensive ratings though.

In his Kansas debut, Mario Little lived up more to his last name than his first, unfortunately.  He missed all three of his field goal attempts but had 5 REB (1 OREB), 2 AST and 1 TO in 10 MIN.  That gave him a pretty nice defensive efficiency rating but pathetic offensive one.  His speed will improve as his injury heals and the game "comes to him."  Tyshawn Taylor had a lackluster day, statistically speaking.   His offense was modestly positive, with 55 eFG% shooting to finish with 12 PTS, 3 AST and 1 TO in 23 MIN.  But he had 0 OREB (and 0 REB overall).  Defensively, he managed 1 STL, but that was it on the positive side.  He committed four personal fouls on a day where KU's opponent was taking a ton of free throws.  So, it wasn't all that great an outing when you look at all his actions.

The Morris twins didn't have much of an impact on the game, mostly because of foul trouble.  Markieff probably had the better game while he was in, which was only 7 MIN.  That's not even enough data to rate him with.  Marcus shot a pitiful 38 eFG% and committed 4 TO's but did manage 2 OREB.  On defense, Marcus had 2 STL but 0 BLK and 5 PF's.  Both of the twins' fouls were a major drag on their defensive ratings.

For Tennessee, there were really only two players who had good ratings, one of which was stellar.  Wayne Chism had the highest efficiency of anybody on the court, which is consistent with his rating coming into the game.  He sizzled with 64 eFG% shooting (2-of-6 from 3FG) and 3-of-4 from the FT line to finish with 17 PTS, 2 OREB, and only 1 TO in 33 MIN.  If that wasn't enough, he had a great defensive effort, tying Aldrich with 6 BLK and adding 3 STL and 6 DREB.  The only glitch was his 4 PF's, but KU didn't shoot as many FT's, so this didn't hurt him quite as much.

Tyler Smith is the other guy who played well, but this was no surprise either.   His shooting is what kept him from having a stellar rating (46 eFG%, 9-of-15 FT), but he had a team-high 21 PTS, 9 REB (3 OREB), and 0 TO.  Pretty solid numbers in the end.

Offensive and Defensive Performance

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)