Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Temple at Kansas Print E-mail
Dec 21, 2008

Kansas 71 - Temple 59

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Tyshawn Taylor
Lowest Composite: Tyrel Reed

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Tyshawn Taylor 4.52 -3.43 7.94
Cole Aldrich 4.16 -2.40 6.56
Brady Morningstar 3.64 -0.48 4.12
Markieff Morris 2.01 -0.26 2.27
Sherron Collins 0.89 -0.80 1.70
Marcus Morris -1.09 -2.38 1.29
Matt Kleinmann* -0.49 -1.01 0.52
Travis Releford* -0.09 0.57 -0.66
Quintrell Thomas* -1.33 0.31 -1.64
Tyrel Reed -3.20 -0.13 -3.07

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Lavoy Allen 5.76 -0.40 6.16
Dionte Christmas 4.75 -0.97 5.72
Semaj Inge 1.53 -0.26 1.79
Sergio Olmos -2.13 -1.62 -0.51
Ryan Brooks -0.48 0.04 -0.52
Ramone Moore -1.31 -0.39 -0.91
Luis Guzman -0.86 0.21 -1.07
Micheal Eric -0.67 0.49 -1.15

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Cole Aldrich
Lowest Composite: Tyrel Reed  

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

 

 

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Cole Aldrich 6.97 -4.02 10.99
Tyshawn Taylor 5.32 -4.04 9.36
Brady Morningstar 5.88 -0.77 6.65
Markieff Morris 5.48 -0.71 6.19
Matt Kleinmann* -5.30 -10.98 5.68
Marcus Morris -1.90 -4.16 2.25
Sherron Collins 1.08 -0.97 2.05
Travis Releford* -0.66 4.12 -4.78
Tyrel Reed -8.72 -0.36 -8.35
Quintrell Thomas* -8.26 1.96 -10.22

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

 

 

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Lavoy Allen 7.17 -0.49 7.67
Dionte Christmas 5.75 -1.17 6.93
Semaj Inge 2.30 -0.39 2.68
Ryan Brooks -0.83 0.07 -0.91
Sergio Olmos -4.43 -3.36 -1.07
Ramone Moore -2.85 -0.86 -1.99
Luis Guzman -1.98 0.48 -2.46
Micheal Eric -1.94 1.41 -3.35

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 


 

My Observations

 

Is it just me, or does this team look like a different team every time out?  It rarely looks like the same team from one timeout to the next sometimes.  In the end, it was a relief to see KU's defense as the MVP of this game.  That has to be the anchor until the young players get a firmer grasp on their offensive roles.  Also, did Self ask the team not to crash the offensive boards?  It didn't even look like they were trying to get stickbacks sometimes, but of course a lot of that was due to Aldrich's absence (foul trouble) and/or his propensity to take long jump shots.  Probably the most impressive thing to me was that the Jayhawks didn't let up in the last 10 minutes or so and basically were never challenged seriously once they pulled away in the last quarter of the game.

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

The two biggest contributors for KU had to be Taylor and Aldrich.  The freshman Taylor scored 11 PTS on 64 eFG% shooting and finished with 8 AST, 4 STL, 2 REB and just 1 TO in a team-high 37 minutes.  That's extremely impressive for a freshman, and he deserves to be credited with much of KU's defensive success.  Aldrich had his usual double-double with 13 PTS, 11 REB, 2 BLK on 75 eFG% shooting.  Nothing to see here, just a typical Aldrich eye-popping stat line, which would have been more incredible if he had stayed out of foul trouble.

 

The unheralded Brady Morningstar had to be considered a big part of the story, too.  Morningstar isn't flashy but knows where to be and what to do.  He gunned for 11 PTS on a sizzling 91 eFG% (3-of-4 from 3FG) and added 2 AST and 2 TO.  Markieff Morris didn't ultimately play a ton of minutes, so his impact was modest.  But his efficiency was excellent, as he scored 8 PTS on 75 eFG% shooting and chipped in with 5 REB.

 

It was a tough day for Sherron Collins and even tougher for Tyrel Reed.  Collins started red-hot and even finished with a respectable 53 eFG% shooting to lead with 19 PTS, 6 AST and 2 STL.  But he played 36 MIN without a STL, and his 53 eFG% was still well below the team's average of 59%.  Reed did nothing positive on the stat sheet, playing 16 MIN and shooting 0-of-3 with 1 TO.  Ouch.

 

Allen and Christmas led the way as expected for Temple.  Despite having only 3 PTS at half, Christmas finished with 21 PTS on 64 eFG% shooting.  Allen had a great shooting performance (58 eFG%) and grabbed 7 REB (3 OREB).  The two combined for just one turnover.

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Temple
Offensive Performance
113.8 110.0
Defensive Performance 84.1 95.2

 Comments

Temple performed fairly well on both sides of the ball, but not the extent that KU did, particularly on defense where KU turned in an overall stifling effort.  The funny thing is that these performance numbers are almost exactly the same as each team's adjusted efficiency numbers coming into the game.  That is, both teams essentially performed at exactly their expected levels on both sides of the ball.

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasTemple
eFG%8.2
 
TO Rate1.0 
O-Reb% 0.5
FreethrowsFT Pct 1.1
FT Attempts 3.9

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 75-69  KU 71-59
 Kudos to Pomeroy's prediction of 72-60, almost perfect!
 Tempo (# poss)
 66 64 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  Tie 50%  KU 59-51%
Troubling to see the Jayhawks give up such a high eFG% again, but they sure did shoot lights out themselves.
 TO Rate (lo better)  Tie 20%  KU 20-19%
 Mostly because KU was able to limit TO's in the 2nd half to just three.
 O-Reb% KU 39-36%
 TU 19-17%
Turned out to be as close as projected, but wow did both teams fail to crash the boards on offense!
 FT Rate KU 39-23%
 TU 23-11% This was a shocker and completely opposite of trends going into the game. Had the Jayhawks not shot lights out, their failure to utilize the FT line could have been fatal.
 Four Factors Overall
 More tight than some might want to believe, but in the end, it will be KU's ability to get to the FT line much more often that will seal the victory.  Still, it is interesting that Temple's offensive performance rating is projected to be so high (125.4).  As evidence has shown, an advantage in eFG% trumps an avantage in FT Rate usually.  It was the case for KU on this day.  Very different game than projected in terms of where the advantages would be, but in the end, it added up to a fairly predictable result.
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Collins, Aldrich/Taylor

 Opp - Christmas, Brooks

 KU - Collins, Aldrich

Opp - Christmas, Allen

 
 Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - Allen

 KU - Taylor (Aldrich #2)

Opp - Allen

 
 Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)

 KU - Marcus Morris

 Opp - Moore

 KU - Aldrich (Marcus Morris #5)

Opp - Allen (Moore #6)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Marcus Morris, Reed

 Opp - Moore, Allen

 KU - Taylor, Morningstar

Opp - Allen, Christmas

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Collins, Aldrich

 Opp - Olmos

 KU - Reed, Marcus Morris

Opp - Eric, Olmos

 Wow, the two KU players struggling most were projected to prosper most.

 

 

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