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Recap: Nebraska at Kansas |
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Feb 22, 2009 |
Kansas 70 - Nebraska 53 PSAN
"Total Impact" RatingsAll ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent | PSAN70
"Efficiency" RatingsPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions" | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Sherron Collins
Lowest Composite: Toney McCray (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Sherron Collins | 8.46 | -2.48 | 10.93 | | Cole Aldrich | 4.29 | -3.39 | 7.67 | | Markieff Morris | 2.93 | -3.26 | 6.19 | | Brady Morningstar | 4.21 | -1.57 | 5.78 | | Matt Kleinmann* | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.74 | | Travis Releford | 0.48 | -0.03 | 0.51 | | Brennan Bechard* | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.09 | | Chase Buford* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Jordan Juenemann* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Marcus Morris | -0.68 | -0.48 | -0.20 | | Tyshawn Taylor | -1.65 | -1.20 | -0.45 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -0.61 | 0.00 | -0.61 | | Conner Teahan* | -1.23 | 0.00 | -1.23 | | Tyrel Reed | -2.09 | -0.54 | -1.55 | | Mario Little | -2.54 | -0.90 | -1.64 | | Quintrell Thomas* | -1.82 | 0.03 | -1.85 | For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Paul Velander | 2.14 | -0.25 | 2.39 | | Sek Henry | -0.12 | -1.90 | 1.78 | | Ryan Anderson | 0.58 | -0.53 | 1.12 | | Chris Balham | 0.15 | -0.83 | 0.99 | | Steve Harley | 0.46 | 0.03 | 0.43 | | Cookie Miller | -0.08 | -0.48 | 0.40 | | Ade Dagunduro | -0.61 | -0.62 | 0.01 | | Ben Nelson* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Nick Krenk* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Alonzo Edwards* | -0.48 | 0.00 | -0.48 | | Brandon Richardson | -3.15 | -1.03 | -2.12 | | Toney McCray | -4.06 | 0.08 | -4.14 | *Rating not based on enough data. | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: Markieff Morris
Lowest Composite: Toney McCray (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Matt Kleinmann* | 31.44 | 0.00 | 31.44 | | Markieff Morris | 6.52 | -7.27 | 13.79 | | Sherron Collins | 10.53 | -3.08 | 13.61 | | Cole Aldrich | 6.98 | -5.51 | 12.49 | | Brady Morningstar | 5.57 | -2.07 | 7.64 | | Brennan Bechard* | 13.37 | 9.52 | 3.84 | | Travis Releford | 1.86 | -0.10 | 1.96 | | Chase Buford* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Jordan Juenemann* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Marcus Morris | -2.21 | -1.56 | -0.65 | | Tyshawn Taylor | -2.79 | -2.03 | -0.76 | | Tyrel Reed | -5.89 | -1.51 | -4.38 | | Mario Little | -8.97 | -3.18 | -5.79 | | Tyrone Appleton* | -13.00 | 0.00 | -13.00 | | Quintrell Thomas* | -12.81 | 0.23 | -13.04 | | Conner Teahan* | -52.00 | 0.00 | -52.00 | For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Paul Velander | 3.94 | -0.46 | 4.39 | | Chris Balham | 0.47 | -2.52 | 2.98 | | Sek Henry | -0.17 | -2.77 | 2.60 | | Ryan Anderson | 1.17 | -1.08 | 2.25 | | Cookie Miller | -0.13 | -0.85 | 0.71 | | Steve Harley | 0.71 | 0.04 | 0.67 | | Ade Dagunduro | -0.89 | -0.91 | 0.02 | | Ben Nelson* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Nick Krenk* | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | Brandon Richardson | -8.33 | -2.72 | -5.61 | | Toney McCray | -12.29 | 0.23 | -12.52 | | Alonzo Edwards* | -20.34 | 0.00 | -20.34 | *Rating not based on enough data. |
| Offensive and Defensive Performance
Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team. That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense. This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams. | (pts per 100 poss) | Kansas | Nebraska
| Offensive Performance
| 117.3 | 93.2 | | Defensive Performance | 80.5 | 92.6 | Comments When Kansas had the ball, both teams actually performed quite well. The real mismatch was when NU had the ball. KU played at a suffocating defensive level, while NU brought way worse than its typical average offense. | Four Factor Analysis(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below) What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team? | Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin) | | Statistic Measured | Kansas | Nebraska
| | eFG% | 11.1
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| | TO Rate | | 4.6
| | O-Reb% | 9.3
| | | Freethrows | FT Pct | | 0.6
| | FT Attempts | 4.6
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Game Projections | | Projection | Actual | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 66-51 | KU 70-53
| | Tempo (# poss)
| 65 | 66 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 57-41% | KU 53-43% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | NU 29-23% | NU 23-15%
| Even though KU controlled their TO's a bit, the margin was actually even worse than projected. | | O-Reb% | KU 33-15%
| KU 42-11%
| Are you kidding me? This resulted in nearly half of KU's scoring advantage. | | FT Rate | KU 50-44%
| KU 32-18%
| Way fewer FT's attempted than projected in this game. | Four Factors Overall
| The extreme advantage in eFG% overshadows all, as KU should coast to victory on that alone. | Shooting and rebounding were dominated so effectively by KU that NU's advantage in TO's was irrelevant. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Dagunduro, Harley | Exactly as projected
| | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Anderson | KU - Collins (Aldrich #2) Opp - Velander (Anderson #3) | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Little Opp - McCray | KU - Markieff Morris (Little was last) Opp - Velander (McCray was last) | What a complete disaster for the two players projected to play most efficiently for each team. Dead last among players with at least 10 min for each.
| | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Little, Morningstar Opp - None | KU - Collins, Markieff Morris Opp - Velander, Balham | While Little struggled mightily, Morningstar did outperform his own average significantly.
| | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Reed, Marcus Morris Opp - Richardson, Dagunduro | KU - Little, Reed Opp - McCray, Richardson | Both Marcus Morris (KU) and Dagunduro (NU) struggled significantly, as projected. |
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | For Nebraska, this game is all about turnovers. In particular, it's their ability to steal the ball from KU. If that's not an area they are really controlling, they don't stand a chance. Projections have them already forcing a high rate of turnovers, but if they want to win, they'll have to push even harder.
| NU to force at least 30% TO Rate and have at least 10 STL. | KU had 23% TO Rate
| KANSAS - Low bar to be sure, but KU didn't have a disastrous outing as projected.
| | We know Nebraska won't get offensive rebounds, so if they are held to a poor eFG%, that should be game-set-match for the Jayhawks. | KU to limit NU to 45 eFG% or lower
| NU shot 43 eFG%
| KANSAS
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