Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Kansas vs Syracuse Print E-mail
Nov 25, 2008

Syracuse 89 - Kansas 81 (Overtime)

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Arinze Onuaku
Lowest Composite: Sherron Collins

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Cole Aldrich 1.34 -5.49 6.83
Marcus Morris 2.69 -2.63 5.32
Tyshawn Taylor 0.57 -1.40 1.97
Tyrone Appleton* 0.36 0.00 0.36
Brady Morningstar 0.09 -0.02 0.12
Quintrell Thomas* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Travis Releford* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Markieff Morris 0.50 0.57 -0.07
Tyrel Reed -1.51 -0.82 -0.68
Conner Teahan* -1.29 0.29 -1.57
Sherron Collins -2.48 -0.55 -1.93

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Arinze Onuaku 12.93 -4.90 17.83
Paul Harris 8.73 -3.47 12.20
Jonny Flynn 8.30 -0.07 8.37
Andy Rautins 5.66 -0.86 6.51
Eric Devendorf 5.79 0.51 5.28
Kristof Ongenaet 1.42 0.03 1.39
Kris Joseph -0.51 0.60 -1.12
Rick Jackson* -1.49 0.03 -1.52

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Arinze Onuaku
Lowest Composite: Kris Joseph

   

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Tyrone Appleton* 13.57 0.00 13.57
Cole Aldrich 1.33 -5.41 6.74
Marcus Morris 2.80 -2.74 5.54
Tyshawn Taylor 0.59 -1.46 2.05
Brady Morningstar 0.14 -0.03 0.17
Quintrell Thomas* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Travis Releford* 0.00 0.00 0.00
Markieff Morris 1.44 1.64 -0.21
Tyrel Reed -1.95 -1.07 -0.88
Sherron Collins -2.32 -0.52 -1.80
Conner Teahan* -12.04 2.69 -14.73

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Arinze Onuaku 12.43 -4.71 17.14
Paul Harris 8.61 -3.42 12.04
Andy Rautins 6.42 -0.97 7.40
Jonny Flynn 7.24 -0.06 7.30
Eric Devendorf 5.17 0.46 4.71
Kristof Ongenaet 4.43 0.08 4.35
Kris Joseph -1.75 2.05 -3.80
Rick Jackson* -7.98 0.18 -8.16

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 


 

My Observations

 

This will be a long season for any Kansas fans expecting results right away.  This was a prime example of just how talented the Jayhawks are ... and inexperienced.  Even "veteran" Sherron Collins had shaky moments.  Still, it's obvious that the pieces are there for a strong team in March.  First, Aldrich has been the anchor for this team in every game.  If you combine that with Collins being solid most of the time on the outside, it gives KU a chance to win in every game it plays.  Before the collapse that included turnovers and breakaway dunks from Syracuse, KU continued to show a suffocating defense with even better defensive rebounding tonight.  It was also the first time playing against a primarily zone defense, and KU showed the ability to beat the zone by passing, not just shooting outside shots.  Once the team gels and it gets all players healthy (expected starter, Mario Little, is still out for another couple of weeks), it could really become a force to reckon with.

 

It did seem a ton of calls were going the way of Syracuse.  I don't remember a single charging foul against the Orangemen, but at least a couple against KU that should have been blocking fouls.  That didn't decide the game, but it was a different feeling than I get most games.

 

One last interesting note ... did anyone see when KU was inbounding the ball after a made SU basket and the player with the ball, standing with both feet out of bounds on the baseline, passed it in bounds only to have the other player step out of bounds and re-inbound?  It looked very illegal to me and came with about 2:30 or so left in the game, if I recall correctly.  It was obvious what the KU players were trying to do, but it looked like the refs could easily have called an out-of-bounds on KU.

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Syracuse
Offensive Performance
98.9 147.2
Defensive Performance 86.6 88.9

 Comments

Kansas still managed a decent defensive performance considering Syracuse's offense thus far this season, but the Orangemen had a stellar offensive performance when you take KU's defense this season so far into consideration.  Naturally, much of that will change once efficiency ratings are updated tomorrow morning.

 

When KU had the ball, it was a very average KU offense playing against a solid SU defense.

 

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

This is a very difficult game to analyze using numbers that reflect the entire game, as opposed to breaking down stats into the 80% of the game that KU was clearly winning versus the 20% at the end where Syracuse dominated.  In any event, here it goes.

 

What stands out first is just how poorly Collins performed when all was said and done.  In 40 MIN, he shot only 43 eFG% (3-of-9 from 3FG), made only 2-of-5 FT, managed only 2 AST against 3 TO (most resulted in breakaway baskets) and 1 STL.  He didn't make great decisions down the stretch, which only made his poor shooting look even worse.  Maybe Kansas fans can take away from this that they can hang with major conference teams even if their floor general has the worst game of the night.

 

And the reason KU can hang when Collins struggles is that Aldrich brings it night after night.  Once again, Cole Aldrich led the Jayhawk effort with 15 PTS (on poor 39 eFG%), 16 REB, 3 STL, 2 BLK, 2 AST and 3 TO in 38 MIN.  But of course, the end of regulation saw Aldrich miss a potentially game-sealing free throw then get beat on the perimeter for the game-tying three-pointer.  But hey, KU wouldn't have been anywhere near that position if Aldrich hadn't done his thing.

 

Watching the game, it was easy to fall in love with the play of Tyshawn Taylor.  He seemed to be everywhere for a stretch there in the first half, at one point scoring nine consecutive points.  Yes he shot an impressive 65 eFG% on a night KU's offense was mediocre, but he also had a team-high 4 TO against only 2 AST to go with 2 STL and 3 DREB in 36 MIN of play.  His net effect was positive, but not by much.  Essentially, on offense his TO's negated about half of his shooting contributions, and he had no offensive rebounds.

 

Marcus Morris did have a solid outing, with 50 eFG% shooting to finish with 11 PTS, 11 REB (6 were OREB!), team-high 6 AST, 2 TO, 1 STL and 2 BLK in 36 MIN.  Wow, what an effort by the freshman.  Too bad his brother didn't bring the same kind of effort this night.  Markieff did shoot 63 eFG% but missed his only FT, had 1 TO with his 1 AST and not much else to show for himself before fouling out.

 

Once again, Travis Releford saw next to no playing time in favor of Brady Morningstar.  Yet, Morningstar had a remarkably neutral effect on this game.  On the one hand, he shot 75 eFG% but only on two shots.  He made all three of his FT but turned it over twice with 1 AST and 1 BLK (a pretty impressive one).  Morningstar will never be a player with the standout ratings probably, but he isn't having a negative effect at least so far.

 

For Syracuse, it was clearly Onuaku who dominated inside and gave them the greatest boost.  Commentators seemed to think that many viewers would be surprised to see him perform so well.  If you'd read the preview of this game on this site, you'd know he was leading the team going into this matchup.  Onuaku shot an astounding 80 eFG% to finish with 19 PTS, 12 REB, 2 STL, 4 BLK and 0 TO in 39 MIN.  A lot of Syracuse players benefit in the ratings from the fact that the offensive performance for SU is so high.

 

Both Paul Harris and Jonny Flynn had terrific ratings.  As usual, Flynn had stellar offensive ratings and largely neutral defensive ones.  He would have fared much better except that he turned it over five times.  Plus, he had only 1 REB in 43 MIN.  Harris did the bulk of his damage on the boards with 14 REB (3 OREB) but also committed 3 TO to go with 14 PTS, 5 AST, 1 STL and 2 BLK.

 

The only Syracuse player to really struggle was Kris Joseph, who missed both of his shots and had 1 AST and 1 TO.

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasSyracuse
eFG% 10.4
TO Rate 3.0
O-Reb%5.1
 
FreethrowsFT Pct 3.6
FT Attempts 10.4

 

 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  SU 55-47%
 TO Rate (lo better)  SU 20-17%
 O-Reb% KU 33-19%
 FT Rate SU 43-15%
 Bottom Line
 In the end, it was a dominant performance by Syracuse across most of the Four Factors.  What isn't captured here is how opposite things looked midway through the second half, in favor of KU.  The Jayhawks were basically one Cole Aldrich freethrow from sealing the victory but collapsed very badly down the stretch.  This is also a good example of how a team can really increase its eFG% when it forces turnovers that lead to easy buckets.

 

 

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