|
Recap: Kansas at Missouri |
|
|
|
Feb 10, 2009 |
Missouri 62 - Kansas 60 PSAN
"Total Impact" RatingsAll ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent | PSAN70
"Efficiency" RatingsPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions" | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: DeMarre Carroll
Lowest Composite: Sherron Collins (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | Cole Aldrich | -2.68 | -7.31 | 4.63 | | Travis Releford* | 4.55 | 0.09 | 4.46 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 1.71 | -2.06 | 3.77 | | Tyrel Reed | 1.35 | -1.85 | 3.20 | | Brady Morningstar | -3.45 | -4.57 | 1.12 | | Markieff Morris | -0.49 | -1.36 | 0.87 | | Mario Little | -0.71 | -1.54 | 0.82 | | Marcus Morris | -1.86 | -0.97 | -0.89 | | Sherron Collins | -5.57 | -3.33 | -2.24 | For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN-O | PSAN-D | PSAN-Comp | | DeMarre Carroll | 6.34 | -3.14 | 9.48 | | Keith Ramsey | 1.58 | -2.78 | 4.36 | | Matt Lawrence | 0.38 | -2.35 | 2.73 | | Zaire Taylor | -0.36 | -1.48 | 1.12 | | Laurence Bowers* | 0.54 | -0.37 | 0.91 | | Kim English | -1.88 | -2.42 | 0.54 | | J.T. Tiller | -4.44 | -4.77 | 0.33 | | Leo Lyons | -2.72 | -2.30 | -0.43 | | Miguel Paul* | -0.49 | 0.00 | -0.49 | | Justin Safford* | -1.12 | 0.00 | -1.12 | | Marcus Denmon | -3.97 | -2.23 | -1.74 | *Rating not based on enough data. | Ratings on the CourtHighest Composite: DeMarre Carroll
Lowest Composite: Marcus Denmon (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.) | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | Travis Releford* | 21.09 | 0.42 | 20.67 | | Tyshawn Taylor | 3.18 | -3.82 | 7.00 | | Tyrel Reed | 2.28 | -3.11 | 5.39 | | Cole Aldrich | -2.84 | -7.75 | 4.91 | | Markieff Morris | -1.83 | -5.06 | 3.22 | | Mario Little | -1.11 | -2.38 | 1.28 | | Brady Morningstar | -3.77 | -4.99 | 1.22 | | Sherron Collins | -5.74 | -3.43 | -2.31 | | Marcus Morris | -6.28 | -3.28 | -3.00 | For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better | PLAYER | PSAN70-O | PSAN70-D | PSAN70-Comp | | DeMarre Carroll | 8.11 | -4.01 | 12.12 | | Keith Ramsey | 2.79 | -4.91 | 7.71 | | Laurence Bowers* | 3.99 | -2.75 | 6.74 | | Matt Lawrence | 0.68 | -4.15 | 4.83 | | Zaire Taylor | -0.43 | -1.78 | 1.34 | | Kim English | -3.67 | -4.73 | 1.06 | | J.T. Tiller | -5.32 | -5.71 | 0.39 | | Leo Lyons | -4.21 | -3.55 | -0.66 | | Marcus Denmon | -9.22 | -5.17 | -4.05 | | Miguel Paul* | -18.29 | 0.00 | -18.29 | | Justin Safford* | -20.87 | 0.00 | -20.87 | *Rating not based on enough data. |
| Offensive and Defensive Performance
Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team. That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense. This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams. | (pts per 100 poss) | Kansas | Missouri
| Offensive Performance
| 91.2 | 92.5 | | Defensive Performance | 70.3 | 71.8 | Comments Basically an identical performance on both ends of the court by both teams when all was said and done. Both teams were menacing on defense and hurting on offense. But that's the overall view. Obviously, stretches of the game showcased very different levels of competence on both sides of the ball. | Four Factor Analysis(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below) What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team? | Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin) | | Statistic Measured | Kansas | Missouri
| | eFG% | 7.2
|
| | TO Rate | | 10.5
| | O-Reb% | 5.0
| | | Freethrows | FT Pct | 1.8 | | | FT Attempts | | 7.8
|
Game Projections | | Projection | Actual | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | MU 75-73 | MU 62-60 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 74 | 75 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 56-50% | KU 44-37%
| Advantage was as expected, but both teams really shot poorly. | | TO Rate (lo better) | MU 28-19% | MU 34-17% | Really the biggest factor in the game, as KU struggled even more than projected, as if that was possible. | | O-Reb% | KU 33-27%
| KU 41-23%
| The much greater than projected advantage here did not translate into as many points, because TO's are ultimately more important than OREB's. | | FT Rate | KU 48-47%
| MU 46-29%
| MU did its part, but KU didn't make it to the line. Self stated that KU was hanging on instead of attacking. Maybe that was reflected here and in the fact that Aldrich only attempted 3 shots in the second half. | Four Factors Overall
| The factors actually project to be even but don't account for everything in the game. The bottom line in this analysis is a game projected to be very, very close.
| MU won the "mistakes" categories (fouls leading to FT, turnovers) enough to overcome KU's ability to shoot better and dominate the glass. Single biggest factor was KU's turnovers. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Collins, Aldrich Opp - Carroll/Lyons | KU - Taylor, Collins/Little/Releford Opp - Carroll, Lyons | | Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Carroll | KU - Aldrich Opp - Carroll | | Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)
| KU - Aldrich Opp - Lawrence | KU - Taylor (Aldrich #3) Opp - Carroll (Lawrence #3) | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Markieff Morris, Marcus Morris Opp - Paul, Lawrence | KU - Taylor, Reed Opp - Carroll, Ramsey | Reed was a surprising "over"-performer. | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Little, Reed Opp - Carroll, Taylor | KU - Marcus Morris, Collins Opp - Denmon, Lyons | Really disappointing night for Marcus Morris.
|
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | With all of the Four Factors projected in favor of Kansas except for turnovers, it becomes absolutely critical for Missouri to force turnovers in order to secure the victory. | MU to force at least a 24% TO rate | KU had a whopping 34% rate
| MISSOURI - There's your ball game, really. Who can overcome that on the road against a solid team? Well ... actually KU almost did.
| | KU's statistical horse is Cole Aldrich. MU has no one to match up with him, but if the game is too fast for Aldrich to keep up or if he gets in foul trouble, KU will have a tougher road. | Aldrich to play at least 30 minutes | Aldrich played 35 MIN. | KANSAS - But he wasn't utilized the way he normally is. |
| |