Kansas 82 - Iowa State 67

My Observations

Watching this game, I was reminded a bit of the Michigan State game, where Collins had a three-pointer that would have pulled the Jayhawks to within three points of the Spartans.  In today's game, Vanderbeken was in the same position with slightly less than 6 minutes to play.  Yet, as a KU fan, I did not really feel that the game was that much in doubt.  The Jayhawks seemed in control pretty much the whole way.  Just reminded me that, even though in East Lansing it seemed our boys had a real shot, it may well have felt otherwise to anyone else watching the game.

Player Performance Analysis

Hats off to Craig Brackins.  Really, the guy did a number on KU ... a number just one shy of the Big XII record, unfortunately for him.  Here's a guy who came into the game with a so-so efficiency.  Sure, everyone talked about him being ISU's Mr. Everything and the only guy who could do anything, but his stats suggested otherwise.  My ratings had him as essentially the NCAA average on offense, but he did significantly better on the defensive end.  Using Dean Oliver's offensive rating formula, he had around a 98 (still pretty low, even for players with such a high possession usage).  In four of his last five games, Brackins had shot over 50 eFG% just once.  Not once in his last eight games had he grabbed at least 35% of the available defensive rebounds.  In his five games prior to the KU game, he had a FTA/FGA ratio of lower than 30.  Well, this game he shot 66 eFG%, grabbed 42% of DREB's and had a FTA/FGA of 111.  You have to hand it to the guy for knowing when he should put on a show, but this was not the typical Craig Brackins game by any stretch of the imagination.

It was a bad day aside from Brackins for ISU.  In particular, Garrett and Staiger did not hold up their ends of the bargain.  Garrett missed all five of his shots and balanced his 4 AST with 4 TO's.  Staiger shot as poorly from the field as he has all season in games where he's made at least one shot (21 eFG%) and little else to show for on the boxscore.

Meanwhile, Sherron Collins played co-lead actor in the first half with Brackins.  He just didn't have the same impact in the second half.  Still, he tied his career high with 26 PTS on sizzling 61 eFG% shooting and added 4 REB, 5 AST and 3 TO's in 39 MIN.  Psychologically, most would give him the MVP award for the game, as his first half performance surged the Jayhawks to a lead they never relinquished.  Yet, it is Aldrich who rates highest again.  Why?  He shot about the same as Collins (58 eFG%) although not nearly as many shots, but he pulled in 12 REB (3 OREB) and had 2 BLK while keeping his TO's to just 1.  The net effect of all those ISU possessions he helped end, the KU possessions he kept alive or did not neglectfully end add up to essentially the same impact as Collins.  And with fewer minutes played, his efficiency was higher.

The play of Morningstar and Reed can't be overlooked though.  Morningstar played about as mistake-free as possible on the road, which is big given the recent analysis I did showing his rating on the road being significantly lower than at Allen Fieldhouse.  He didn't do a ton of any one thing, but he shot well (64 eFG%), boarded (3 REB - 1 OREB), dished 3 AST, had 1 STL and did not turn it over once.  Reed shot an improbable 100 eFG% (2-of-3 from 3FG) and grabbed a few boards without making any obvious mistakes.  Granted that doesn't feel like a ton of work, but he did play more than half the game at that superb efficiency.

For the Morris twins, it was a game to forget.  The only thing that either of them did well was rebounding by Marcus.

Offensive and Defensive Performance

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)