Arizona 84 - Kansas 67

My Observations

For about 51% of the game, KU showed signs that it could be solid against a decent team on the road, leading 44-35 with 18:57 to go in the game.  In the span of 8:44, Arizona was up 64-50.  During that stretch, every nightmare came true for fans of the inexperienced, inconsistent Jayhawks.  KU fouled the Wildcats seemingly on every trip down the court, gave up a ton of offensive rebounds and even got posterized on an incredible one-handed alleyoop dunk.  Basically, KU took a punch to the face and responded by doubling over in pain and crying.  No one punched back.  There were times when it looked like the Jayhawks really wanted to, but it was such a disorganized, frantic attempt that it never really had a chance.

Player Performance Analysis

Statistically speaking, the story of the game has to be Jamelle Horne.  The "man among boys" scored 19 PTS on 62 eFG% shooting with an astounding 8 OREB (13 total REB).  He'd rate even higher if not for going 3-of-6 from the foul line.  The trio of Wise, Hill and Fogg were deadly for UA as well.  Wise shot poorly from the field (no surprise - 38 eFG%) but made up for it big time with 10-of-10 from the FT line and 8 AST against only 1 TO.  Hill showed his skills early and often.  KU simply had no answer for the athletic big man, watching him go for a team-high 23 PTS, 11 REB and 2 BLK on 48 eFG% shooting.  Fogg played his usual efficient game on offense to finish with 14 PTS and 5 REB on 67 eFG% shooting.  If the Jayhawks did anything well, it was to take Budinger out of his game.  He shot a pathetic 11 eFG%, but he managed to sneak in 4 REB, 3 AST, 3 STL and 2 TO and scored 5 PTS (3-of-3 FT).

The numbers are full of mediocrity and disappointment on the Kansas side.  Even the statistically good didn't appear to play well to subjective observers.  The Morris twins were best on paper this game.  In 28 MIN, Markieff scored 7 PTS on 60 eFG% and chipped in 7 REB, 4 AST, 2 STL against 3 TO.  His brother Marcus scored 12 PTS on 57 eFG% shooting and grabbed 5 REB (2 OREB).  The fact that these numbers were best should say something about how poorly Kansas performed.  Still, even the Morris twins lacked the toughness and fire that KU needed to compete in the second half meltdown.  Brady Morningstar had a good first half offensively and generally did a great job of shutting down UA's Budinger.  His overall numbers were just barely above average (NCAA Average PSAN ratings are "0" by definition).

But what about KU's known stars?  That's where things really begin to look ugly.  Cole Aldrich has been a superstar extraordinaire on paper every game this season, but this night he managed 10 PTS on 50 eFG% with just 4 REB (0 OREB) and 0 BLK.  He basically didn't look like a factor.  At least he made it to the line 10 times, but he clunked four of them.  Foul trouble limited him to only 23 MIN of play, not that it would have necessarily been the difference in the game.  KU managed its early lead in the second half with Aldrich on the bench for much of it.  Sherron Collins, team MVP going into the game, shot his way to a team-high 16 PTS on 47 eFG% shooting (impressive 4-of-8 from 3FG).  But he also had 4 TO against his 4 AST.  His team-high 36 MIN diminishes much of his efficiency and assigns him more responsibility for KU's performance (negative) than others.

Tyrel Reed had his second straight worst-on-the-court performance.  In 15 MIN, he made just 1-of-4 3FG and had 1 TO.  That's it.

Offensive and Defensive Performance

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)