Sports and Numbers

Newsletter

 
Recap: Albany at Kansas Print E-mail
Dec 31, 2008

Kansas 79 - Albany 43

 PSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

All ratings are adjusted for quality of opponent

PSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

PSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

 

Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Tyrel Reed
Lowest Composite: Will Harris

 

 (PSAN-O = Offensive impact, PSAN-D = Defensive impact.
For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Tyrel Reed 5.22 -2.39 7.61
Cole Aldrich 4.91 -2.65 7.56
Marcus Morris 2.14 -3.63 5.76
Quintrell Thomas 3.00 -1.79 4.79
Travis Releford 1.97 -1.96 3.93
Brady Morningstar 1.47 -2.23 3.70
Tyshawn Taylor 0.15 -2.11 2.26
Matt Kleinmann* 1.44 -0.06 1.50
Tyrone Appleton* 0.59 -0.51 1.10
Markieff Morris -0.95 -1.49 0.54
Sherron Collins -2.47 -2.05 -0.42
Chase Buford* -0.82 -0.24 -0.58
Brennan Bechard* -0.82 0.06 -0.88
Conner Teahan* -2.69 -0.51 -2.18

 

 

 

For PSAN-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN-O PSAN-D PSAN-Comp
Scotty McRae 0.88 0.31 0.57
Jimmie Covington* 0.77 0.34 0.42
Brett Gifford 0.09 -0.02 0.11
Brian Connelly -0.87 -0.49 -0.39
Jerel Hastings -2.01 -1.46 -0.55
Louis Barraza -2.06 -0.81 -1.25
Tim Ambrose -1.69 1.54 -3.24
Anthony Raffa -2.39 0.89 -3.28
Billy Allen -3.66 0.95 -4.61
Will Harris -5.41 -0.47 -4.94

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest Composite: Cole Aldrich
Lowest Composite: Billy Allen  

 

 (PSAN70-O = Offensive efficiency, PSAN70-D = Defensive efficiency.
For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better.)

 

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Matt Kleinmann* 19.93 -0.89 20.82
Tyrone Appleton* 8.23 -7.07 15.30
Cole Aldrich 9.72 -5.24 14.96
Tyrel Reed 9.43 -4.32 13.75
Marcus Morris 4.93 -8.37 13.31
Quintrell Thomas 8.32 -4.95 13.28
Travis Releford 5.85 -5.81 11.65
Brady Morningstar 2.77 -4.21 6.98
Tyshawn Taylor 0.32 -4.61 4.93
Markieff Morris -1.98 -3.10 1.11
Sherron Collins -3.42 -2.84 -0.58
Chase Buford* -11.30 -3.31 -7.98
Brennan Bechard* -11.30 0.83 -12.13
Conner Teahan* -18.61 -3.54 -15.08

 

  

  

 For PSAN70-D, lower ratings are better

 

PLAYER PSAN70-O PSAN70-D PSAN70-Comp
Jimmie Covington* 3.99 1.79 2.20
Scotty McRae 1.73 0.61 1.12
Brett Gifford 0.21 -0.05 0.26
Brian Connelly -1.29 -0.72 -0.57
Jerel Hastings -4.64 -3.37 -1.27
Anthony Raffa -3.10 1.16 -4.26
Louis Barraza -7.14 -2.79 -4.34
Tim Ambrose -3.91 3.56 -7.48
Will Harris -8.32 -0.72 -7.60
Billy Allen -8.45 2.19 -10.64

 

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 


 

My Observations

 

It's always bittersweet satisfaction to watch the team take out its frustration after a very poor outing by destroying a weak team.  Granted, Albany is not one of those teams in the bottom 10% of college basketball, but still this is the kind of team that only feels it has a chance to win because of how bad Kansas looked last time out.  But in games like this, I like to look at the things that have nothing to do with the final score.  Did the team play with energy?  Check.  Did the guys who need minutes to get confidence get to play and play well (Releford and Reed)?  Check.  Did the defense get back to smothering teams and forcing tough shots?  Check.  Did the de facto team leader and "best player" finally have a good game?  "Well, you can't have everything ... where would you put it?"  (- Steven Wright)

 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

Perhaps we should call him Tyrel "Roller Coaster" Reed?  After two straight games of being the worst player on the court, he was the most positively impactful last night.  An astounding 92 eFG% shooting night will usually do that for you.  In 23 MIN, he tied his career high of 12 PTS (3-of-5 from 3FG) and chipped in 4 AST and 1 STL against zero turnovers.  Yet, he still wasn't the most efficient, can you believe it?  The big fella, Aldrich, poured in 20 PTS on 80 eFG% shooting and added 6 REB, 3 BLK against 3 TO ... all in just 21 MIN.

 

Many eyes were on Travis Releford who played the most minutes he's had in ten games.  Well, he did some really nice things, like shooting 88 eFG% to finish with 7 PTS, 4 REB (0 OREB), 2 AST and 1 TO in 14 MIN.  He made his only 3FG attempt and finished with a nice dunk on a fast break.  Clearly, he has moved ahead of Conner Teahan in the rotation, but Tyrel Reed is still getting in before him, and tonight's stellar performance may mean Releford still has some work before securing a spot after Mario Little's return next week.

 

Kudos to frontcourt players, Marcus Morris and Quintrell Thomas.  Morris did a bit of everything in his 18 MIN, shooting 88 eFG% (crazy numbers all around, huh?) including his first 3FG as a Jayhawk, 7 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST and 2 STL against 1 TO.  He particularly aided himself with all those defensive rebounds and steals, on a night when KU's defense was the star of the game.  Thomas has established himself as a free throw attempt guy.  He basically gets his offense at the line.  In this case, he missed his only FG attempt but was 6-of-6 from the FT line and pulled in 5 REB (2 OREB) without turning it over in 15 MIN.  He can certainly help the team if he keeps up those aspects of his game.

 

Very interesting game for the two players who've held the MVP award from this site the past few games.  Both Taylor and Collins lagged behind the rest of the Jayhawks, but Taylor still had a good game efficiency-wise.  Collins was the guy who finished with a negative overall rating (of players with 10+ minutes).  He shot a decent 50 eFG% (nothing like what the others were shooting though, which means his shooting took away from KU's average efficiency).  But he had 5 TO's.  Plus, he had zero rebounds and missed one of his three FT attempts.  At least he did a great job on defense.

 

For the overmatched Great Danes, only two players rated out positive overall.  And only one of them (Gifford) was on the good side in both offense and defense.  Still, no one had a good game by any standards.  The single best performance on either side of the ball was Hastings' defense because he had 2 STL and 1 DREB without any personal fouls.  Now that's a tough night for any team.

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Albany
Offensive Performance
119.3 75.5
Defensive Performance 67.8 101.0

 Comments

When KU had the ball, the Jayhawks did a little better than their season average, while Albany did a little worse.  But when Albany had the ball, it was a monumental mismatch.  KU had one of its best defensive games of the season.

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasAlbany
eFG%38.5
 
TO Rate1.8
 
O-Reb%--
--
FreethrowsFT Pct2.1
 
FT Attempts6.9
 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 72-57  KU 79-43
 
 Tempo (# poss)
 67 64 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 56-40%  KU 66-30%
 Sure this was expected to be a KU advantage, but this is pretty ridiculous.
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 26-21%  KU 25-22%
 Looked like it'd be much more lopsided early.
 O-Reb% KU 37-33%
 UA 30.6-30.4%Turns out UA did hold its own against KU on the boards.
 FT Rate KU 27-26%
 KU 33-12%
Unusual for KU to have this big an advantage at the line. 
 Four Factors Overall
 Nothing expected to be a huge factor except for a gigantic difference in shooting potential in favor of the Jayhawks.
 The expected shooting advantage did UA in, and the unexpected FT advantage just rubbed salt in the wound.
 
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Collins, Aldrich

 Opp - Raffa, Ambrose

 KU - Aldrich, Reed

 Opp - Raffa, Connelly/McRae

 
 Highest PSAN-Comp
(game impact)

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - Raffa

 KU - Reed (Aldrich #2)

 Opp - McRae (Raffa #7)

 
 Highest PSAN70-Comp
(efficiency)

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - Raffa

 KU - Aldrich

 Opp - McRae (Raffa #5)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Markieff Morris, Morningstar

 Opp - Johnson, Connelly

 KU - Reed, Thomas

 Opp - McRae, Gifford

 Reed expected to struggle, so what a nice surprise.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Reed, Collins

 Opp - Harris, Ambrose

 KU - Collins, Markieff Morris

 Opp - Allen, Ambrose

 Harris was a close 3rd here.  Morris expected to do well, oops. 

 

 

Add comment

Security code
Refresh