Sports and Numbers

Newsletter

 

Bulletin

See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page.  You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.
 
Recap: Yale at Kansas Print E-mail
Dec 30, 2007

Kansas 86 - Yale 53

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Darnell Jackson
Lowest: Caleb Holmes

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darnell Jackson 7.74
Mario Chalmers 6.17
Russell Robinson 5.47
Tyrel Reed 4.37
Cole Aldrich 2.53
Brandon Rush 1.92
Darrell Arthur 1.21
Rodrick Stewart 0.71
Sherron Collins 0.67
Matt Kleinmann* 0.16
Brad Witherspoon* 0.00
Chase Buford* -0.54
Jeremy Case* -0.56
Brennan Bechard* -0.81
Conner Teahan* -1.25
Sasha Kaun -1.31

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  P. Braswell 4.19
  A. Zampier 1.98
  M. Sands* 1.52
  G. Fiddler* 0.80
  P. Nelson 0.58
  J. Davis* 0.41
  M. Kyle -0.41
  N. Holmes -1.00
  J. Gibson -1.48
  T. Pinick -1.54
  E. Flato -2.30
  R. Morin -3.34
  C. Holmes -4.68

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Tyrel Reed
Lowest: Caleb Holmes

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Tyrel Reed 15.85
Darnell Jackson 11.70
Mario Chalmers 8.96
Russell Robinson 7.94
Cole Aldrich 7.66
Matt Kleinmann* 2.99
Brandon Rush 2.90
Rodrick Stewart 2.34
Darrell Arthur 1.99
Sherron Collins 1.51
Brad Witherspoon* 0.00
Sasha Kaun -2.97
Jeremy Case* -4.03
Chase Buford* -9.71
Conner Teahan* -15.10
Brennan Bechard* -29.21

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  M. Sands* 18.44
  P. Braswell 10.14
  G. Fiddler* 7.23
  J. Davis* 3.68
  A. Zampier 3.59
  P. Nelson 1.16
  M. Kyle -1.00
  N. Holmes -2.02
  E. Flato -3.09
  J. Gibson -3.15
  T. Pinick -3.73
  R. Morin -5.27
  C. Holmes -8.09

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

This was a game where KU played a bit sloppily because it knew it could probably do whatever it wanted without trying too hard.  Evidence for this would be the offensive rebounding percentage, where Yale actually outperformed KU.  This was not supposed to be even close on the boards.  Yale was shooting airballs and barely hitting the backboard on the few possessions they didn't turn it over, yet they eventually scored 53 points.  That was surprising in a game where Self didn't pull his regular rotation until just three or four minutes were left in the game.  I would attribute that again to their ability to get second-chance opportunities.  All in all, nothing much to learn from this game except that Darnell Jackson continues to play consistently well and that Robinson and Chalmers are one of the premier (if not the best) defensive duos in the country.

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Yale
Offensive Performance
106.8 87.9
Defensive Performance 71.4
95.6

 Comments

KU outperformed Yale on both offense and defense by a wide margin.  KU's offensive efficiency was somewhat lower than projected, and it was due about equally to KU offense and Yale's defense.  Yale's offensive efficiency was also lower than projected, but it was caused more by strong KU defense.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasYale
eFG%16.9 
TO Rate11.7
 
O-Reb% 0.8 
FreethrowsFT Pct 2.1
FT Attempts8.1
 

 

Player Performance Analysis

Five players stood out for Kansas in this game.  The one with the best combination of overall game impact and efficiency was Darnell Jackson.  He shot 75 eFG% on his way to 20 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST and 0 TO.  His only failings came at the FT line where he made 2-of-5.  Chalmers was solid (again) with a sizzling 90 eFG% (3-of-5 on 3FG), 11 PTS, 5 AST, 3 STL and 2 TO.  Robinson had a "quiet" but strong game.  He only scored 4 PTS, but he did so on a respectable 50 eFG%.  His big contributions were 5 AST and a whopping 8 STL (one shy of the KU record set by Aaron Miles) with only 2 TO.  Tyrel Reed had the most efficient game on the court, with an eye-popping 133 eFG%!  That's what happens when you make all three FG attempts and two of them are 3FG.  He chipped in a STL in his 10 minutes of action.  Finally, another freshman, Cole Aldrich, had a solid game.  He made 2-of-3 FG to score 5 PTS.  More importantly, he grabbed 4 OREB for a total of 7 REB in just 12 MIN.

 

The rest of the team had either mediocre efforts (Rush, Stewart, Arthur) or very bad ones (Kaun).  Rush's rating wasn't great because he only ended up shooting 50 eFG% and only 2 REB.  Stewart shot well from the field (67 eFG%) but missed both his FT attempts (equal to about 1 TO) and had a regular TO in only 11 MIN.  Arthur shot very poorly (33 eFG%) and had mostly defensive rebounds, but he did swat away 3 shots.  Collins shot well but had 4 TO.  Kaun shot poorly and didn't rebound much, plus he missed both of his FT's.

 

Yale enjoyed a fantastic effort from Braswell (13 PTS on 108 eFG% shooting), but it wasn't enough to overcome mostly poor play from his teammates.  In particular, Caleb Holmes suffered with 1-of-6 shooting and 6 TO. 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual 
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 89-57  KU 86-53
 
 Tempo (# poss)
 71 77 All the sloppy play made for more possessions. 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 61-45%  KU 58-44%
 
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 30-20%  KU 34-17%
 Must have been frustrating to root for Yale on offense.
 O-Reb% KU 39-24% YU 31-28%
 Jayhawks should be embarrassed by this result.
 FT Rate KU 25-24% KU 19-11% 
 Four Factors Overall
 Advantages in all four factors for KU, but the eFG% dwarfs all of them (nearly 20 pt difference as a result of shooting alone).  Shooting and turnover advantages resulted in dominant KU performance.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Chalmers, Arthur/Collins

 Opp - Flato, Holmes, Zampier (co-leaders)

 KU - Jackson, Chalmers

 Opp - Braswell, Flato 

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Chalmers

 Opp - Zampier

 KU - Jackson (Chalmers #2)

 Opp - Braswell (Zampier #2) 

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Chalmers

 Opp - Zampier

 KU - Reed (Chalmers #3)

 Opp - Braswell (Zampier #2) 

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Collins, Chalmers

 Opp - Zampier, Morin

 KU - Reed, Jackson

 Opp - Braswell, Nelson 

 Collins did fare worse than usual, but Chalmers did better.  Morin struggled. 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Rush, Stewart

 Opp - Kyle, Pinick

 KU - Kaun, Stewart

 Opp - Gibson, C. Holmes 

 Rush did slightly worse than his average.  Kyle and Pinick both did significantly worse than their averages.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 KU should just hope that a last-minute change isn't made resulting in the winner being decided based on which team can solve more multivariable calculus problems in 40 minutes.  Will this be a basketball game?  KU would have the decided edge there.
I caught a glimpse of a T-shirt with "Kansas = #1" so there were definitely some equations, but I wouldn't classify it as multivariable calculus.  Maybe if it had said, "Yale = #217" ... KANSAS