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Recap: Oklahoma at Kansas Print E-mail
Jan 15, 2008

Kansas 85 - Oklahoma 55

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Brandon Rush
Lowest: Cade Davis

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Brandon Rush 9.71
Mario Chalmers 7.95
Darnell Jackson 7.31
Darrell Arthur 4.13
Cole Aldrich 3.77
Russell Robinson 3.56
Sherron Collins 1.84
Sasha Kaun 1.33
Rodrick Stewart* 0.61
Conner Teahan* 0.35
Tyrel Reed* 0.00
Jeremy Case* -0.96

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  L. Longar 4.06
  T. Griffin 1.06
  O. Leary 0.37
  T. Neysmith* 0.00
  B. Gerber* 0.00
  B. Griffin* -0.69
  D. Godbold -0.79
  T. Crocker -1.23
  A. Johnson -1.79
  C. Davis -3.01

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Brandon Rush
Lowest: Cade Davis

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Conner Teahan* 14.80
Brandon Rush 13.25
Darnell Jackson 12.38
Cole Aldrich 12.29
Mario Chalmers 12.01
Darrell Arthur 7.28
Russell Robinson 6.28
Rodrick Stewart* 5.13
Sasha Kaun 3.32
Sherron Collins 3.00
Tyrel Reed* 0.00
Jeremy Case* -10.17

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  L. Longar 4.52
  T. Griffin 1.32
  O. Leary 0.68
  T. Neysmith* 0.00
  B. Gerber* 0.00
  D. Godbold -0.95
  A. Johnson -2.81
  T. Crocker -2.89
  B. Griffin* -5.83
  C. Davis -8.50

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

I have a question that's just been bugging me.  If Fran Fraschilla had to give three reasons why he likes this KU team, what would they be?  I just can't imagine what his answer would be.  In terms of what to make from this game, I think the most we can say is that Oklahoma is terrible when Blake Griffin can't play.  But we also can say that Kansas plays with intensity every time out.  The "new" Brandon Rush is working out very nicely.

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Oklahoma
Offensive Performance
140.2 105.2
Defensive Performance 72.2
106.0

 Comments

Second straight game with astronomically high offensive efficiency for KU.  The takeaway here is that KU played phenomenally well, while OU struggled on defense and had an offense that was better than the average team.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasOklahoma
eFG%27.7
 
TO Rate4.2
 
O-Reb%1.1
 
FreethrowsFT Pct0.6
 
FT Attempts7.4
 

 

Player Performance Analysis


This is the Brandon Rush that must be playing in March for KU's aspirations to be realized.  You can see it in his posture and demeanor when he gets the ball.  Rush wants to score or make something happen.  And he's been very good at it in the two games he's consciously asserted himself.  Now, we have to see if he can sustain this for the rest of the season.  It's inevitable that he will have a few passive stretches or games, but if he can play at this level, KU can and will go places.  Rush shot 70 eFG% to score 16 PTS with 9 REB, 4 AST, 2 STL and just 1 TO in 31 MIN.

 

Darnell Jackson led KU in scoring with 17 PTS, 8 REB (1 OREB) and 0 TO on 80 eFG% shooting.  Terrific game for the "heart and soul" man.  His thieving teammate in the backcourt, Mario Chalmers, was up to his old tricks again.  Chalmers poured in 13 PTS on 90 eFG% (these shooting numbers just keep getting more ridiculous, don't they?) with 5 AST and 3 STL against 2 TO.  So, those were the three stars of the game.

 

Believe it or not, Cole Aldrich had himself an extremely efficient game.  It's not surprising given his overall high efficiency rating for the season.  He had 6 PTS, 3 REB, 3 BLK on 67 eFG% and 2-of-2 from the line in just 13 MIN.  Not bad.  Darrell Arthur had a bigger impact on the game even though he wasn't nearly as efficient as Aldrich.  Arthur scored 14 PTS on 50 eFG% shooting, with 8 REB (5 OREB!) and 2 BLK but also had 3 TO.  The turnovers hurt him, although he made up for it by making all four of his free throws.

 

Nobody had a bad game for the Jayhawks, but the players with the lowest efficiency were Kaun and Collins.  Both of them well below 50 eFG%, which was the main reason for their average ratings.

 

Longar was the only guy for Oklahoma with a respectable rating.  He finished with 21 PTS on 50 eFG% shooting, with 5 REB, 2 AST and 3 TO.  Rough night for every other Sooner though. 

 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
 Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 76-63
 KU 85-55
 
 Tempo (# poss)
 70 66 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 52-50%  KU 59-36%
 With Blake Griffin out, none of OU's stats should really be taken seriously as an indication of strength.
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 26-19%  KU 17-11%
 
 O-Reb% KU 36-25%
 KU 32-29%
 
 FT Rate OU 29-17% KU 29-14%
 
 Four Factors Overall
 KU's edge in TO and OREB should be enough to make up for OU's slight advantage at the line.  Absolute domination with advantages in every category.  Nothing could have made up for eFG% disparity.
 
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur, Chalmers/Rush

 Opp - B. Griffin, Longar

 KU - Jackson, Rush

 Opp - Longar, Crocker 

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - B. Griffin

 KU - Rush (Jackson #3)

 Opp - Longar (B. Griffin injured) 

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - B. Griffin

 KU - Rush (Jackson #2)

 Opp - Longar (B. Griffin injured) 

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Stewart, Rush

 Opp - Johnson, Godbold

 KU - Rush, Aldrich

 Opp - Longar, Leary 

 Stewart did play above average but not enough minutes.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Chalmers, Arthur

 Opp - Davis, T. Griffin

 KU - Kaun, Collins

 Opp - Davis, Crocker 

 Chalmers and Arthur played above average.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Both KU's offensive efficiency and OU's defensive efficiency are highly correlated to TO Rate.  Kansas to limit TO Rate to below 21% KU had only 11% TO Rate
 KANSAS - The way KU shot, they could have weathered some turnovers though. 
 OU's offense is highly correlated to its offensive rebounding percentage.  OU to pull in at least 35% of available OREB  OU only had 29% OREB
 KANSAS - Sooners just couldn't capitalize on any aspect of the game.
 OU is fairly inexperienced and could get rattled before they even know what him them.  In Allen Fieldhouse, to stand a chance, OU must be within striking distance at halftime.  OU to trail by no more than 6 points at halftime.  KU had already doubled up OU at the half, 40-20.  KANSAS - OU's doom was sealed in the opening minutes of the game with the KU run and Griffin's injury.