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Recap: Ohio at Kansas Print E-mail
Dec 15, 2007

Kansas 88 - Ohio 51

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Mario Chalmers
Lowest: Allen Hester

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
M. Chalmers, G 10.90
R. Robinson, G 9.85
D. Jackson, F 5.76
B. Rush, G 5.14
S. Kaun, C 4.49
D. Arthur, F 3.44
C. Aldrich, C 2.11
J. Case, G 1.84
C. Teahan, G* 0.94
S. Collins, G 0.37
M. Kleinmann, C* 0.00
R. Stewart, G -0.10
T. Reed, G -2.08

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
L. Williams, F-C 2.33
B. Walther, G 0.19
D. Washington, F* 0.00
B. Whittington, G -0.32
T. Freeman, G -0.55
J. Orr, F -1.62
M. Allen, G -3.26
K. van Kempen, F-C -3.33
J. Tillman, F -3.61
A. Hester, G -4.17

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Mario Chalmers
Lowest: Allen Hester

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
M. Chalmers, G 17.10
R. Robinson, G 15.44
C. Teahan, G* 12.23
J. Case, G 12.00
S. Kaun, C 10.35
D. Jackson, F 9.82
C. Aldrich, C 8.25
B. Rush, G 8.05
D. Arthur, F 5.40
S. Collins, G 0.68
M. Kleinmann, C* 0.00
R. Stewart, G -0.38
T. Reed, G -10.21

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
L. Williams, F-C 2.85
B. Walther, G 0.30
D. Washington, F* 0.00
B. Whittington, G -0.74
T. Freeman, G -1.67
J. Orr, F -3.02
M. Allen, G -4.26
J. Tillman, F -4.72
K. van Kempen, F-C -8.15
A. Hester, G -12.56

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

Things could not have gone better for the Jayhawks.  I noticed on the Bottom Line ticker that the Hawks and Bobcats were also playing in the NBA.  Ohio probably thought there was a mixup and they were playing the pro 'Hawks team instead.  This was exactly what KU needed to do to show it belongs in the discussions of national title contenders.  Here was an Ohio team fresh off a mild upset of Maryland on the road.  They had a star frontcourt performer and one of the nation's best offenses.  KU just wreaked havoc on defense, pushed the ball down their throats on the break, executed brilliantly on offense with a wide array of lob passes and other set plays and just dominated from beginning to end.  There was not one second of doubt in this game.  They neutralized the potential OU advantages inside and on the freethrow line with excellent denial of the ball to Williams inside.  Ohio probably had a bad shooting day, but it didnt' seem like it would have mattered.

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

This is a new section I plan to include in my recaps.  It is an attempt to determine how well each team's offense and defense played, based on the opposition's strength.  Here's how it works.  To determine KU's offensive performance, we start with KU's offensive efficiency in the game (1.23 pts per possession, which is 123 points per 100 possessions - the measure we'll actually use).  We take that 123 and divide by the opponent's adjusted defensive efficiency (Kenpom.com says Ohio's Adj DE was 98.9, only a little better than the average defense).  Multiply that result by the NCAA average efficiency (100.1), and presto -- 124.7 is KU's offensive performance this game.  What does that actually mean?  It means that if KU were to perform at the same level offensively against the average team, it would have scored at a 124.7 points per 100 possession rate. In this case, that would have translated to about 89 points, FYI.

We can do the same analysis for KU's defensive performance, just flip flop the appropriate terms.  The interesting part is when we do the analysis for Ohio and compare those results.  In this case, Ohio's defensive performance was 107.2, compared to KU's offensive performance of 124.7.  What that tells me is that KU's score was more the result of good offense than bad Ohio defense.  I know this because the 124.7 is a greater distance away from the average than the 107.2 is from the average.  Ohio's offensive performance and KU's defensive performance numbers also imply that Ohio's score was more the result of amazing KU defense (61.1) than poor Ohio offense (90.5).

With that background, this table should be easy to read.

 

 

  Kansas Ohio
Offensive Performance
124.7 90.5
Defensive Performance
61.1 107.2
Off Perf +/- NCAA avg 24.6% -9.6%
Def Perf +/- NCAA avg 38.9% -7.1%
 KU was superior on both sides of the ball.  Overall, this victory was somewhat more a result of KU's defense than its offense.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

  • eFG% - Advantage KU 64-35%.  Ohio offense not used to this kind of shutdown.
  • TURNOVERS - Advantage KU 24-22%. Unexpectedly close.
  • OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage KU 48-26%.  KU seemed to want it more.
  • FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Almost even at 15%.  Should have been OU's big advantage.
What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasOhio
eFG%35.0 
TO Rate1.0
 
O-Reb%7.2
 
FreethrowsFT Pct 2.0
FT Attempts2.0
 

CONCLUSION - In a game where you get points by shooting baskets into a hoop, well ... you gotta shoot baskets into the hoop.  When you do that 35 points better, not much else is needed.

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

Another stellar performance for KU's biggest performer this season.  Mario Chalmers put on a clinic for how to get into passing lanes and disrupt an offense.  In only 25 MIN, he scored 17 PTS on 94.4 eFG% (3-of-4 on 3FG), with 5 AST, 4 STL, 3 REB and 2 TO.  Hard to ask anything more of a player.  And yet, if you can believe it, there was another KU player nipping on his heels.  His backcourt partner in crime (yes, they should both be charged with grand theft the way they defended), Russell Robinson, returned to his better form to silence critics.  In his 25 MIN, he picked his spots to shoot 2-of-3 on 3FG for 100 eFG%, with a career-high 11 AST, 3 STL, 3 REB, 1 BLK and just 2 TO.  Maybe that tendinitis is getting better.

 

Darnell Jackson and Brandon Rush were the other two starters with strong games.  Jackson made all five of his FG attempts for 11 PTS to go with 8 REB (only 1 OREB) and 2 AST.  Rush started the game on a hot streak from behind the arc but cooled off and finished with a 50 eFG% clip, scoring 13 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST, 1 BLK and 1 TO in 25 MIN.

 

Sasha Kaun may not have had a game impact rating as high as those two, but he was more efficient in his 17 MIN, shooting 66.7 eFG% to score 8 PTS, 7 REB (4 OREB), 2 BLK and 0 TO.  Cole Aldrich didn't have a bad game either, including an unbelievable dunk in the lane following a teammate's miss.  He finished with 75 eFG%, 6 PTS, 4 REB (2 OREB), 1 BLK and 1 TO in just 10 MIN.

 

Darrell Arthur was very involved in the game.  In 25 MIN, he scored 14 PTS, 8 REB (3 OREB), with 2 BLK, 1 STL and 2 TO.   His rating is less than impressive because he missed so many shots on a day where KU was scoring very efficiently.  Plus, his two missed freethrows equate to about one empty possession.  If he never shoots another 3FG, it would be a welcome sight.

 

Sherron Collins continues his journey back from injury.  This wasn't one of his better performances, understandably.  His 50 eFG% is respectable but not great in this particular game, and neither was his 0 AST against 2 TO.  The important thing with him is just getting the feel of the game back.  Plus, it was clear he could create his shot when he really wanted to.  A few more games and he should be back to his explosive self once again.

 

Tyrel Reed finally had a poor game, missing all three of his shots and turning it over once.  Rodrick Stewart also struggled big time, with 2 FT's as his only offense and 3 TO to make matters worse.

 

For Ohio, only Williams had a respectable performance, though it was nowhere near his usually superb levels.  Walther put in an essentially neutral performance.  Everyone else struggled a little or a lot. 

 

 

Comparison to Pre-Game Projections

(Not enough data went into these projections for accuracy.)

 

  Projected Actual Comments
 Final Score  KU 81-64  KU 88-51  
 eFG%  KU 57-51%  KU 64-35%  
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 30-19%  KU 24-22%
 
 O-Reb% KU 33-31% KU 48-26% 
 FT Rate OU 37-18% Even 15-15%  
 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur, Chalmers, Collins, Rush

 OU - Tillman, Williams 

 KU - Arthur, Chalmers

 OU - Whittington, Williams 

 
 Highest cPSAN

 KU - Kaun

 OU - Williams 

 KU - Chalmers (Kaun #5)

 OU - Williams

 
 Highest cPSAN70

 KU - Kaun

 OU - Williams 

 KU - Chalmers (Kaun #4)

 OU - Williams 

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Kaun, Collins

 OU - Whittington, Tillman

 KU - Robinson, Chalmers

 OU - Whittington, Freeman

 Chalmers was projected to underperform, while Tillman was to overperform.  Both did exactly the opposite.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Chalmers, Arthur

 OU - Hester, Freeman 

 KU - Stewart, Collins

 OU - Hester, Tillman

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Leon Williams is OU's main chance for victory.  He must get to the FT line often and grab plenty of OREB to give improve his chances of shooting a high eFG%.  The projection of 6-8 FT is not going to cut it. Leon Williams to attempt at least 12 FT and secure at least 5 OREB He got his 5 OREB, but only 4 FTA 

KANSAS

 Tempo appears to be important because KU plays a fast pace, while OU plays very slowly.  However, correlation analysis shows that at higher paces, KU's offensive and defensive efficiencies have both deteriorated, while the opposite has happened for OU.  Ironically, both teams may benefit from the opposite of their current tempo tendencies.  If, however, the lower pace also coincides with very few TO's for Ohio, this may bode poorly for KU, since their halfcourt offense has been lacking.  On the other hand, correlation shows that when OU turns it over a lot, their opponents don't score as efficiently -- go figure!  Maybe the only thing we can hang our hat on is that higher tempo usually favors the better team. Confusing signals, so no metric.  Just watch for effects of tempo.
 Tempo was about average.  Fast breaks clearly in favor of KU.
KANSAS 
 Sherron Collins' return from injury last game showed how he can change the game.  Whether his atrophied leg muscles are strong enough to make him a consistent factor in the offense may be key.  One measure of that will be his minutes, and the other will likely be the possessions he uses (FG's or FT's that end a possession, or turnovers) indicating his involvement in the offense.  Collins to play at least 18 min and use 22% of possessions while on floor  Collins played 21 MIN but only used 16% of possessions
OHIO - But KU didn't need Collins.