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Recap: Miami-OH at Kansas Print E-mail
Dec 23, 2007

Kansas 78 - Miami-OH 54

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Darnell Jackson
Lowest: Alex Moosmann

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darnell Jackson 7.72
Mario Chalmers 5.14
Sherron Collins 4.38
Darrell Arthur 2.65
Cole Aldrich 2.33
Rodrick Stewart 1.60
Brennan Bechard* 1.45
Conner Teahan* 1.45
Russell Robinson 1.29
Brandon Rush 1.22
Jeremy Case* 0.90
Chase Buford* 0.35
Brad Witherspoon* 0.32
Matt Kleinmann* 0.00
Sasha Kaun -0.38
Tyrel Reed* -0.82

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
N. Winbush, F 3.71
T. Pollitz, F 3.14
R. Haddix, G* 1.67
D. McCombs, F 1.38
M. Bramos, G-F 1.29
C. Richburg, G 0.47
K. Hayes, G 0.24
S. Mock, F* 0.00
T. Dierkers, F -0.19
A. Fletcher, C -1.11
E. Pollitz, G -2.78
A. Moosmann, G -4.27

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Darnell Jackson
Lowest: Alex Moosmann

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Brennan Bechard* 69.49
Conner Teahan* 23.16
Darnell Jackson 18.47
Chase Buford* 16.70
Brad Witherspoon* 15.08
Sherron Collins 11.02
Mario Chalmers 10.25
Cole Aldrich 8.57
Jeremy Case* 7.15
Rodrick Stewart 5.89
Darrell Arthur 5.52
Brandon Rush 2.16
Russell Robinson 2.12
Matt Kleinmann* 0.00
Sasha Kaun -1.42
Tyrel Reed* -6.54

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
R. Haddix, G* 15.98
N. Winbush, F 14.79
T. Pollitz, F 5.37
D. McCombs, F 3.31
M. Bramos, G-F 2.47
C. Richburg, G 2.03
K. Hayes, G 0.49
S. Mock, F* 0.00
T. Dierkers, F -0.49
A. Fletcher, C -4.42
E. Pollitz, G -6.34
A. Moosmann, G -9.28

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

I always wondered what a basketball game at Allen Fieldhouse would look like to one of the creatures from the Predator movies.  Now, thanks to the Jayhawk Network, that little mystery has been solved.  I'm guessing the euphoria of watching my Jayhawks easily score over 70 points against Miami-OH was mostly the emotions from the game, not just from the seizure medication I had to take as a result of watching that broadcast.

 

This KU team is so enjoyable to watch.  A few things stood out for me.  Darnell Jackson is a lot more athletic than I gave him credit for, especially after that tip-in where he reached from around the other side of the rim and had to wait long enough to avoid offensive goaltending.  Sherron Collins is way faster with the ball than any KU player I've ever seen.  It will be awesome to see Collins in action against another such player, D.J. Augustin from Texas when they meet early next year.  Darrell Arthur may never be incredibly efficient, but he has the capability of scoring and rebounding big every game, but he just doesn't "bring it" every game.  This day, he did.  Lastly, it looks like the KU offense is really starting to click. 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Miami-OH
Offensive Performance
137.7
118.6
Defensive Performance 81.8
113.8

 Comments

KU outperformed UM on both offense and defense by a wide margin.  UM's offensive efficiency was almost exactly as expected based on adjusted strength of each team, and both teams contributed virtually the same amount to that outcome.  KU's offensive efficiency was far better than projected, and it was due mostly to good KU offense and less so to poor UM defense.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasMiami-OH
eFG%16.4
 
TO Rate9.0
 
O-Reb%1.9
 
FreethrowsFT Pct0.8
 
FT Attempts1.2
 

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

This was a thoroughly balanced performance by Kansas.  With the exception of Kaun, Robinson and Rush, every KU player with at least 8 minutes had an efficiency (cPSAN70) of +5.00 or higher, which is amazing.  Leading the way in game impact was Darnell Jackson.  He finished with 14 PTS, 8 REB (4 OREB), 1 STL and 2 BLK on 86 eFG% in just 20 MIN.  What a performance, and it was head-and-shoulders above the next two KU players, who happened to have amazingly efficient games.  Mario Chalmers torched the nets again with 83 eFG% shooting (2-of-3 on 3FG) with 10 PTS, 3 AST, and 3 STL in only 24 MIN.  The other star of the day was Sherron Collins.  SC motored his way to 8 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST, 1 STL and 0 TO in 19 MIN while shooting 88 eFG%.  These shooting percentages really are staggering, aren't they?

 

Behind that fabulous threesome is another threesome, each of whom contributed in different ways with similar game impact ratings.  Arthur was the "loudest" of the bunch, pouring in 14 PTS and 10 REB (4 OREB) and only 1 TO in 23 MIN.  What kept him down again was his missed shots.  He made 7-of-14 overall.  That sounds good, but remember that KU was averaging 1.33 PTS/poss in the game, meaning that missed shots really dragged down the efficiency.  Fortunately for him, he negated four of those misses with OREB's, but overall it was not enough to give him one of the highest ratings on the team.  In the end, his efficiency was a very healthy 5.52 because he didn't play a lot of minutes.  Aldrich had a more quiet performance, but in just 13 MIN he made 1-of-2 FG, 2-of-2 FT, 3 REB, 1 BLK, 1 AST and 0 TO.  His efficiency was better than Arthur's as a result, but their overall impact was similar.  This is always hard to reconcile as a viewer.  It seemed that Arthur was scoring all over the place and making a bigger impact, but missed shots are missed shots, and turnovers are turnovers.  In the end, the net result of both players' actions were very similar.  It's just that Arthur had more positives (biased memory retains these better) than negatives.  Rodrick Stewart also did a solid job in his 13 MIN, not turning it over at all and making 1-of-2 shots to go with his 1 STL and 1 REB.  Adding in the intangibles makes his efficiency a healthy one, although his overall impact was marginal.

 

Robinson and Rush had overall positive game impact ratings, but barely.  Robinson really struggled shooting (30 eFG%) and had 2 TO's against his 4 AST, but his 4 STL really helped his cause.  Rush shot a respectable 55.6 eFG%, but that was about a neutral contribution on this night when KU was firing on all cylinders.  Meanwhile, he only had 3 REB and 1 AST to go with that in his 27 MIN.  Not a bad efficiency rating in the end, but it wasn't a good one either.  Sasha Kaun rated poorly because he made 2-of-4 FG (not positive in this game) and had only 1 REB to counteract his 1 TO.  Remember, TO's are heavily penalized in a game where KU was scoring efficiently.

 

For UM, it was Winbush with the most efficient game by far, making 100 eFG% (2-of-2 on 3FG) to finish with 8 PTS and 2 AST in only 12 MIN.  The other contributor was T. Pollitz, with 11 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL and 2 TO in 28 MIN of action.  But he shot only 45.8 eFG%.  The superstar performer for UM, Bramos, was absolutely shut down.  The poor guy did alright when he had a chance to get the ball and shoot (60 eFG%) but only shot five times to finish with 6 PTS.  Great defense by Rush and others. 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
 Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 68-52  KU 78-54 
 Tempo (# poss)
 58 59 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 55-50%  KU 63-48% 
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 26-19%  KU 24-10%
 
 O-Reb% KU 33-24% KU 38-31%
 
 FT Rate UM 24-19% KU 11-8%
 
 Four Factors Overall
 Healthy advantages in shooting, turnovers and rebounding should power KU to victory.  Typical KU victory, with eFG% and TO advantages leading the way.
 
 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur (several others tied 2nd)

 Opp - Bramos, T. Pollitz

 KU - Arthur, Jackson

 Opp - Hayes, T. Pollitz 

 Bramos shut down by Rush and others, with only 6 pts.

 PLAYER PROJECTIONS (>10 min played)

 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Kaun

 Opp - Bramos

 KU - Jackson (Kaun lowest on team)

 Opp - Winbush (Bramos #4) 

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Kaun

 Opp - Bramos

 KU - Jackson (Kaun lowest on team)

 Opp - Winbush (Bramos #4) 

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Kaun, Stewart

 Opp - E. Pollitz, Hayes

 KU - Jackson, Collins

 Opp - Winbush, Richburg 

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Chalmers, Rush

 Opp - Richburg, T. Pollitz

 KU - Kaun, Robinson

 Opp - Moosmann, E. Pollitz 

 Rush had 3rd lowest efficiency compared to season rating.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 UM takes a very high % of its shots from behind the arc as have KU's opponents all season.  UM's 3FG% will be key.  UM to shoot at least 40% from 3FG
UM shot 47.1% from 3FG
 MIAMI-OH - Several came near end of game in mop-up time though.
 In such a slow game, KU could get frustrated if it fails to get second-chance scoring opportunities.  Arthur and Kaun can't disappear on the boards as they often have this season.  KU to grab at least 35% of available OREB
 KU got 38% of OREB
 KANSAS - The way KU shot, it didn't really need too many though.
 The only players that can carry UM are Bramos, Pollitz and Dierkers.  Two of those three must have strong games.  At least 2 of Bramos, Pollitz and Dierkers have cPSAN70 efficiencies of +5.00 or higher for game.
 Only T. Pollitz did well (5.37)
 KANSAS - Interesting, since Pollitz was the one projected to struggle in my preview.  Makes his rating particularly impressive in light of the expected challenge.