Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Loyola (MD) at Kansas Print E-mail
Jan 8, 2008

Kansas 90 - Loyola (MD) 60

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Greg Manning
Lowest: Brian Rudolph

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Jeremy Case 4.75
Sasha Kaun 4.68
Sherron Collins 4.48
Darnell Jackson 3.31
Brandon Rush 2.39
Conner Teahan* 1.78
Darrell Arthur 1.53
Rodrick Stewart 0.79
Tyrel Reed* 0.30
Brennan Bechard* 0.21
Matt Kleinmann* 0.03
Chase Buford 0.00
Brad Witherspoon* -0.78
Russell Robinson -1.07
Cole Aldrich* -1.92

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  G. Manning 5.51
  M. Sullivan 1.13
  G. Kelly* 0.93
  D. Ficke 0.53
  B. Harvey -0.34
  J. Miles -0.70
  M. Tuck -1.44
  G. Brown -1.55
  O. Isreal -2.54
  B. Rudolph -3.59

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Greg Manning
Lowest: Brian Rudolph

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Jeremy Case 14.56
Conner Teahan* 10.93
Sasha Kaun 9.07
Brennan Bechard* 7.80
Sherron Collins 5.89
Darnell Jackson 5.80
Brandon Rush 3.66
Darrell Arthur 2.57
Rodrick Stewart 1.61
Tyrel Reed* 1.59
Matt Kleinmann* 0.52
Chase Buford 0.05
Russell Robinson -1.46
Cole Aldrich* -6.42
Brad Witherspoon* -28.67

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  G. Manning 18.42
  G. Kelly* 17.07
  M. Sullivan 2.07
  D. Ficke 1.21
  B. Harvey -0.47
  M. Tuck -1.65
  G. Brown -1.84
  J. Miles -2.15
  O. Isreal -3.34
  B. Rudolph -6.30

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

Kansas lacked the killer instinct we've seen of late.  It's not unusual for it to happen against a much weaker team.  KU did put together a nice run in the middle third of the game though, which almost resulted in a margin that was close to projections.  The problem is that projections assumed Chalmers (KU's most efficient and productive player) would play.  He was out with a mild groin injury.  All in all, nothing too important was revealed by this game.

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Loyola-MD
Offensive Performance
110.8 99.5
Defensive Performance 81.4 100.2

 Comments

L-MD performed basically like an average team on both offense and defense.  KU did significantly better, moreso on defense.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasLoyola (MD)
eFG%16.3
 
TO Rate6.9
 
O-Reb%3.3
 
FreethrowsFT Pct0.8
 
FT Attempts9.2
 

 

Player Performance Analysis


I won't comment much on player performances this game.  It was very interesting that a L-MD player was the most impactful and most efficient.  Greg Manning had 10 PTS, 2 REB, 2 STL in just 11 MIN.  Granted, that doesn't seem all that great at first glance.  But he shot 75 eFG% (4-of-6 FG, including 1-of-2 on 3FG) and made his only FT.  One of his two rebounds was offensive.  Plus, he had 2 STL against a KU team that was scoring very efficiently, meaning those STL were worth a lot.  He did this with 0 TO, 1 PF in very limited playing time.

 

On the KU side, a surprising performance by Jeremy Case ranked him at the top of both impact and efficiency ratings.  Case scored 8 PTS on 100 eFG% shooting to go with 3 AST, 2 STL, 0 TO in just 12 MIN.  Cole Aldrich had a disastrous effort that should send his season-to-date ratings down significantly.  Sasha Kaun put on a clinic inside, and Sherron Collins finally had a solid effort.  Darrell Arthur had a terrific first half, but he ended up shooting 50 eFG% (not bad, but not great) and made only 4-of-7 FT to go with his 3 BLK and 5 REB. 

 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
 Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 96-56  KU 90-60
 
 Tempo (# poss)
 73 76 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 60-42%  KU 52-39%
 Rough start for KU
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 29-18%  KU 25-16%
 
 O-Reb% KU 42-26%
 KU 41-33%
 Too many OREB given up by KU
 FT Rate KU 35-28% KU 34-20%
 
 Four Factors Overall
 An expected romp by virtue of domination in every category, particularly eFG%.  All factors favored KU, particularly eFG% and FT categories.
 
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur, Jackson/Rush

 Opp - Brown, Sullivan

 KU - Collins, Arthur/Kaun

 Opp - Brown, Sullivan

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Brown

 KU - Case (Jackson #4)

 Opp - Manning (Brown #7)

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Reed

 Opp - Brown

 KU - Case (Reed, not enough minutes)

 Opp - Manning (Brown #6)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Reed, Collins

 Opp - Brown, Fofana

 KU - Case, Kaun

 Opp - Manning, Miles

 Collins had a much better game than average, but Brown didn't.  Fofana didn't play.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Jackson, Robinson

 Opp - Isreal, Tuck

 KU - Aldrich, Robinson

 Opp - Rudolph, Isreal

 Jackson did play below average, as did Tuck.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Top-secret technology employed by Loyola could unseat the Jayhawks if they're not careful.  Have the Greyhounds developed a remote control force shield that can obscure portions of the opening to the Jayhawks' basket?  I guess we'll have to wait and see. L-MD did employ the secret weapon, but it appeared to malfunction toward the end of the first half, after which they were doomed.
 KANSAS
 

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