Sports and Numbers

Newsletter

 

Bulletin

See updated cumulative player ratings and MVP analysis on the Dashboard page.  You can navigate there using NCAA Basketball --> Kansas Basketball --> Special Analyses.
 
Recap: Kansas vs Nebraska (Big 12 Tournament) Print E-mail
Mar 15, 2008

Kansas 64 - Nebraska 54

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Ade Dagunduro
Lowest: Steve Harley

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darnell Jackson 6.59
Mario Chalmers 4.63
Sasha Kaun 2.65
Sherron Collins 2.38
Russell Robinson 1.97
Brandon Rush 0.77
Cole Aldrich* 0.02
Rodrick Stewart* 0.00
Darrell Arthur -0.38

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  A. Dagunduro 8.01
  A. Maric 5.57
  P. Velander 4.66
  J. Strowbridge 1.79
  R. Anderson 0.58
  C. Salomon* 0.00
  S. Henry -0.65
  C. Miller -0.81
  C. Balham* -0.92
  S. Harley -2.47

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Ade Dagunduro
Lowest: Steve Harley

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Darnell Jackson 12.80
Mario Chalmers 5.84
Sasha Kaun 5.38
Sherron Collins 5.06
Russell Robinson 2.96
Brandon Rush 1.03
Cole Aldrich* 0.51
Rodrick Stewart* 0.00
Darrell Arthur -0.75

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  A. Dagunduro 14.95
  P. Velander 11.44
  A. Maric 8.12
  J. Strowbridge 4.17
  R. Anderson 1.51
  C. Salomon* 0.00
  S. Henry -1.44
  C. Miller -1.99
  S. Harley -3.20
  C. Balham* -4.79

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

The postseason could not have gotten off to a worse start for Kansas than that ugly, ugly first half.  But the Jayhawks did exactly what a title-contending team should do in response ... storm back immediately after halftime and basically never look back.  Until the Jayhawks are challenged near the end of the game, I wouldn't be too worried about this team's mindset.  And even then, only if it comes against a much weaker team obviously.

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Nebraska
Offensive Performance
122.8 111.8
Defensive Performance 83.4 87.3

 Comments

When all was said and done, KU performed a little shy of its season averages on both offense and defense, while NU did slightly better in both.  But KU was still the better team on both sides of the ball.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasNebraska
eFG%3.8
 
TO Rate 2.0
O-Reb%5.0
 
FreethrowsFT Pct0.2
 
FT Attempts14.8 

 

  

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
 Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 75-56  KU 64-54 
 Tempo (# poss)
 65 60 Kudos to NU's ability to dictat, especially on offense.

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 56-46%  KU 51-47%
 
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 24-21%  NU 30-27%
 
 O-Reb% KU 35-26%
 KU 52-33%
 
 FT Rate KU 28-26% KU 54-14%
 Single largest factor in win was FT attempts.
 Four Factors Overall
 Every factor, even the usually weak FT category, are projected to be in KU’s favor.  The eFG% advantage projects as the largest contributor to a projected KU blowout victory.  Sloppy play from KU was overcome by biggest factors - FT attempts and OREB%.
 
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Rush, Chalmers

 Opp - Maric, Harley

 KU - Collins, Chalmers/Jackson

 Opp - Dagunduro, Velander

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Rush

 Opp - Maric

 KU - Jackson (Rush #6)

 Opp - Dagunduro (Maric #2)

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Rush

 Opp - Maric

 KU - Jackson (Rush #6)

 Opp - Dagunduro (Maric #3)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Rush, Kaun

 Opp - Strowbridge, Henry

 KU - Jackson, Collins

 Opp - Dagunduro, Velander

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Arthur/Stewart

 Opp - Anderson, Miller

 KU - Arthur, Rush

 Opp - Harley, Miller

 Down the stretch, this better not happen for KU.