Kansas 88 - Kansas State 74

Comments and Observations

So, it's easy for K-State fans to complain that this game was decided by the refs.  After all, there was a call that could have gone either way for Beasley's second foul early, and then they called Walker's second foul for what looked like someone else's foul.  But KU was also suffering foul trouble of its own that resulted in Jackson missing the rest of the first half.  It made Arthur's night a shorter-than-usual 23 minutes.  KSU ended up with more FT attempts, and KU ended up with more fouls in the game.  So, why do KSU fans feel cheated?  It's because the aggressive referees took away KSU's only real options, making KU's superior depth a much greater weapon.  Well, that's one of the signs of a strong team -- the ability to overcome bad nights (or short ones) for the best players.  It's why one-man teams are not as good as two-man teams, which are not as good as five-man teams.

These games are emotional, so I have no problem with fans from either side ever complaining that there were bad calls.  What I do have a problem with is those who allege that one team "cheated" or somehow paid off the refs.  If anyone has proof of this, let's see it.  Otherwise, you (rock) chalk it up to bad luck.  On a night when Beasley played 31 minutes and scored 39 points, I don't want to hear about how the refs took him out of the game.  On a night when KU had nice advantages in three of the Four Factors, I don't want to hear how the refs decided the game.  It was the environment, the opportunistic play and the execution of the better team that night.  And now that they've had their home-and-home, I can say with even more conviction ... the better team, period, won this game.

Offensive and Defensive Performance

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

Player Performance Analysis

In all the games that I have ever run player ratings for, I have never seen a player score as high as Michael Beasley did this time around.  It is simply mind boggling.  Seriously ... over +20 efficiency rating??  Over +16 impact rating??  That is just not human.  He scored 39 PTS on 57 eFG% shooting, with 11 REB (2 OREB), 3 BLK and just 2 TO.  He did all this despite the disruption in rhythm he must have experienced as his coach had to sub him in and out to protect him from foul trouble in the first half.  Just ... wow.  Only Young had a positive rating on the team outside of Beasley.  I don't think I've ever seen this kind of single-handed dominance of one team's performance statistically.  Young scored 9 PTS on 67 eFG% shooting and had a little bit of everything else in his 34 MIN.  All the other KSU players simply didn't shoot all that well, or if they did, they turned it over.  Walker had only a neutral effect on the game, and that was probably one of the biggest reasons for KSU's loss.

Finally, Sherron Collins came to play.  The little guy played more like his tough physique this time around, scoring 18 PTS on 71 eFG% shooting, with 4 AST, 4 STL and just 1 TO.  He made 3-of-7 from behind the arc.  The man he usually subs for, Russell Robinson, had a fantastic night in his second-to-last game in Allen Fieldhouse.  Robinson had a few points in garbage time that made his scoring deceptively better than it was.  Regardless, he did a great job with 4 REB, 5 AST, 4 STL and 3 BLK.  He did have 4 TO though.  The other KU player with great numbers was Brandon Rush, who scored a team-high 21 PTS on 59 eFG% shooting (5-of-9 from 3FG), 4 REB (3 OREB), 3 AST and just 1 TO.  He missed a lot of shots, but because he made so many 3FG's, his percentage was high enough to overcome that.

The three big guys didn't have a spectacular night, but they also didn't have terrible ones.  Jackson was in foul trouble in the first half, but he came on strong early in the second.  He finished with 10 PTS and 6 REB on 71 eFG% shooting.  Kaun missed too many shots (43 eFG%) but had 4 OREB and 7 REB total to go with 1 STL and 1 BLK.  He kept a lot of possessions alive.  Arthur had some really nice moves inside to score 10 PTS on 50 eFG% shooting.  Even better, he had 4 OREB (5 total) and 0 TO.  He didn't shoot a single free throw, which is troublesome from a big man who's supposed to be aggressive.  Maybe he was too busy helping keep Walker in check.

Potential MVP, Mario Chalmers, was MIA this game.  He shot only 31 eFG%, with 3 REB, 4 AST, 2 STL and 4 TO.  It just didn't look like he was in a groove.