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Recap: Kansas at Southern California Print E-mail
Dec 2, 2007

Kansas 59 - Southern California 55

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Mario Chalmers
Lowest: Taj Gibson

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Mario Chalmers 10.17
Darnell Jackson 6.01
Sasha Kaun 2.32
Darrell Arthur 2.04
Brandon Rush 1.34
Russell Robinson 0.46
Rodrick Stewart 0.14
Cole Aldrich* -0.41

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Daniel Hackett 5.94
Davon Jefferson 5.25
O.J. Mayo 2.76
Keith Wilkinson 1.27
Kasey Cunningham 0.78
Angelo Johnson 0.04
RouSean Cromwell* -0.23
Dwight Lewis -0.31
Taj Gibson -2.07

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Mario Chalmers
Lowest: Taj Gibson

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Mario Chalmers 11.75
Darnell Jackson 6.94
Sasha Kaun 4.65
Darrell Arthur 3.11
Brandon Rush 1.97
Russell Robinson 0.53
Rodrick Stewart 0.19
Cole Aldrich* -7.76

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Davon Jefferson 5.73
Daniel Hackett 5.67
Keith Wilkinson 4.85
Kasey Cunningham 3.30
O.J. Mayo 2.63
Angelo Johnson 0.09
Dwight Lewis -0.48
Taj Gibson -3.15
RouSean Cromwell* -8.84

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

Considering its proximity to Hollywood, is it possible this game was actually filmed during a remake of "Twilight Zone"? Nothing seemed right about this game.  The officiating was all over the place, as both teams benefited from questionable calls.  Never have I seen assistant coaches make such a direct impact in the game.  First, it was interference on the sideline resulting in KU's ball.  Second, it was the technical foul called for standing up too intensely, I guess?  It also looked like KU had travelled back in time to the UCLA game from last season's NCAA Tournament, where magical "bunnies" can't find their way home.  Only this time, the back-breaking three-pointer benefited the Jayhawks as the clock wound down.  Mario Chalmers in the first half was obviously cloned and genetically manipulated to create the Chalmers from the second half.  The four factor analysis below, as you'll see, was flip flopped from what was expected going into the game.  And when Kaun was fouled with 4 minutes left in hopes of getting him to miss FT's (a la Billy Gillespie and Texas A&M last season), he stepped up and made one of his freethrows.  Even Russell Robinson, who is usually mentally tough, expended so much energy on his amazing defense of O.J. Mayo that he couldn't help but let a slow bounce pass roll between his legs and into the backcourt.  After all this, KU beat a ranked opponent on the road?  Delicious.  May I have another?

 

Four Factor Analysis

  • eFG% - Advantage USC 43-41%.  No surprise it was close, but both teams shot well below expected.
  • TURNOVERS - Advantage USC 30-25%.  Was supposed to be KU's biggest advantage.
  • OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage KU 41-16%.  Dominant performance here made KU's offense just good enough.
  • FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Virtually even at 19%.
What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasUSC
eFG% 2.1 
TO Rate 3.1 
O-Reb%6.3
 
FreethrowsFT Pct1
 
FT Attempts------

CONCLUSION - Unexpectedly, offensive rebounding was the saving grace for the Jayhawks, as USC held slight advantages in both shooting and turnovers, but just not enough.

 

Player Performance Analysis

 

What an incredible second half by Mario Chalmers.  He was 5-of-6 FG, including 2-of-2 from 3FG, with 17 PTS, 3 STL, and 3 REB and 2 TO.  Good enough to earn consideration for MVP honors this game.  His closest competition would come from Darnell Jackson, who racked up 13 REB (4 OREB) to go with 9 PTS, 2 AST and 1 BLK in 33 MIN.  He only shot 4-of-10, however.  The other guy who deserves game-ball consideration is Russell Robinson.  Offensively, it was mostly a struggle as he shot 2-of-7, with 1 AST and 4 TO.  Although, his one 3FG tied the game just before a buzzer beater at the end of the first half.  His masterpiece was his defense of O.J. Mayo, who had a forgettable second half (3-of-11 FG, 1-of-6 3FG, 3 PF, 2 TO, 7 PTS).  It was a joint effort with others, like Rodrick Stewart, but Robinson was a major reason for Mayo's inefficient play.

 

Sasha Kaun's rating is probably higher than most felt he deserved, mostly because he fumbled the ball so much and had so few rebounds.  But it's mostly a reflection of making his only FG attempt and going 3-of-4 from the line.  That's a nice 5 points with only about 2.5 possessions used, which really boosts KU's offensive efficiency.  Darrell Arthur was more visible, with 10 PTS, 8 REB (4 OREB) on 45.5 eFG% (and another ill-advised 3FG attempt).  But he also turned it over five times, missed both FT's and committed 5 PF.  That's too many possessions used and/or wasted to make much of a positive impact.

 

Players who struggled the most this game were Rush and Stewart.  Rush's performance wasn't alarming, just unfortunate.  Everyone knows he can shoot, but he sure didn't make them on this day.  He seemed a bit tentative, but it will take time for him to regain the confidence and explosiveness he's capable of displaying.  He finished with a paltry 18.2 eFG%, including 0-of-5 on 3FG.  He didn't chip in much of anything else to compensate.  Meanwhile, Stewart didn't have a great showing against his former school.  He did a great job on the glass, with 7 REB (3 OREB) but also had 5 TO and shot only 28.6 eFG%.

 

As projected, Davon Jefferson had the most efficient game for the Trojans.  He finished with 17 PTS, 3 REB on 54.5 eFG%.  It was O.J. Mayo whose play was key though.  Mayo didn't shoot well (35.7 eFG%) and had his usual turnovers (5) but did chip in 5 REB, 2 AST and 3 STL.  His shots seemed forced and well-guarded, so kudos to the KU defense for that.  The highest game impact rating for USC went to Daniel Hackett, who played all 40 minutes along with Mayo.  The difference was that Hackett made 55.6 eFG% in addition to similar numbers in other categories as Mayo.

 

This was a tough game for the other USC starters, Gibson and Lewis, as expected.  Lewis shot well (66.7 eFG%) but rarely and had 5 TO.  Gibson fouled out with only 2 PTS on 25 eFG%. 

 

Comparison to Pre-Game Projections

(Not enough data went into these projections for accuracy.)

 

  Projected Actual Comments
 Final Score  KU 72-67  KU 59-55
 Poor shooting by both teams resulted in lower scoring.
 eFG%  KU 53-51%  USC 43-41%  
 TO Rate (lo better)  USC 26-22%  KU 30-25%
 
 O-Reb% USC 30-27% KU 41-16% 
 FT Rate USC 25-19% Even at 19%  
 Leading Scorers

 KU - Rush, Chalmers

 USC - Mayo, Jefferson 

 KU - Chalmers, Arthur

 USC - Mayo, Jefferson 

 
 Highest cPSAN

 KU - Rush

 USC - Jefferson 

 KU - Chalmers

 USC - Hackett (Jefferson #2)

 
 Highest cPSAN70

 KU - Aldrich

 USC - Jefferson 

 KU - Chalmers

 USC - Jefferson 

 As I suspected, Aldrich hardly played, so he didn't qualify to be rated.  2nd highest projected was Rush, who had a very poor game.
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Aldrich, Rush

 USC - Johnson, Cromwell

 KU - Chalmers, Jackson

 USC - Cunningham, Hackett

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Reed, Stewart

 USC - Wilkinson, Cunningham 

 KU - Stewart, Rush

 USC - Gibson, Jefferson 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

One of KU's two biggest determinants of offensive efficiency has been its OREB%, which for the first time this season is projected to be a disadvantage.  KU must hit the offensive glass. KU to grab at least 33% of available OREB KU got whopping 41% of available OREB KU - One of two biggest keys to victory
Biggest key to USC's defensive efficiency is its opponents' eFG%.  KU has nation's #3 eFG%. USC to hold KU below 50 eFG%
KU shot only 41.3%, but USC only shot 43.2% from field themselves USC - No one can question the Trojans' defensive efficiency this game
Freshman sensation O.J. Mayo takes twice as many shots as any other USC player and shoots at an excellent percentage.  He is only a few TO's per game away from having superstar efficiency ratings. Mayo to limit his TO's to 3 or fewer and shoot 50 eFG% or better.
Mayo didn't deliver - 5 TO's and 35.7 eFG%
KU - Great job guarding the dangerous freshman dynamo