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Recap: Kansas at Oklahoma State Print E-mail
Feb 24, 2008

Oklahoma State 61 - Kansas 60

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Byron Eaton
Lowest: Darrell Arthur

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Darnell Jackson 7.39
Russell Robinson 2.78
Mario Chalmers 1.51
Cole Aldrich* 1.30
Brandon Rush 1.21
Sasha Kaun 0.31
Rodrick Stewart -0.22
Jeremy Case* -0.49
Sherron Collins -1.39
Darrell Arthur -1.87

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  B. Eaton 9.25
  O. Muonelo 3.84
  M. Adams 2.28
  I. Thomas 1.91
  M. Dove 1.47
  J. Anderson 1.24
  N. Sidorakis* 0.39
  T. Hatch* 0.09
  M. Moses* 0.00
  T. Harris -0.07

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Byron Eaton
Lowest: Sherron Collins

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Darnell Jackson 8.92
Cole Aldrich* 6.28
Russell Robinson 3.18
Mario Chalmers 2.62
Brandon Rush 1.65
Sasha Kaun 0.79
Rodrick Stewart -0.86
Darrell Arthur -4.78
Sherron Collins -5.51
Jeremy Case* -7.06

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  N. Sidorakis* 17.09
  B. Eaton 10.68
  O. Muonelo 4.82
  I. Thomas 3.81
  M. Adams 3.22
  M. Dove 2.94
  J. Anderson 1.60
  T. Hatch* 0.76
  M. Moses* 0.00
  T. Harris -0.27

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

By the time the game wound down to the final possessions, if you thought the outcome was going to be decided by anything other than a Byron Eaton free throw, I don't know if they make a drug that can help you. Let's just hope the rumors of Self leaving for OSU don't intensify after he helped coach them to their first victory Saturday. (just kidding, folks)

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas OSU
Offensive Performance
102.6 117.6
Defensive Performance 89.0 77.5

 Comments

OSU outplayed KU on both ends of the court.  The biggest discrepancy was when KU had the ball.  The Jayhawks struggled more than usual to score, mostly because of strong OSU defense rather than their own anemic offense.  Essentially, there was a good performance by three out of the "four teams" that showed up.

 

Good: OSU offense, OSU defense, KU defense

Bad: KU offense 

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(not necessarily supposed to add up to final margin)

Statistic MeasuredKansasOklahoma State
eFG% 5.5
TO Rate 2.8
O-Reb%7.2
 
FreethrowsFT Pct 0.2
FT Attempts 6.8

 

Player Performance Analysis


In a masterful 38-minute performance, Byron Eaton put the Cowboys on his shoulders and carried them to their biggest victory of the season.  Coming in to the game, he had been shooting only a 45 eFG%, but he upped it to 50% this day, with the help of two unbelievably long-range bombs.  It shouldn't surprise anyone that he used the FT line well (#41 in the country in FT Rate going in), but 16-of-18?  That was a tough pill to swallow for the Jayhawks.  Even his 5 TO couldn't derail him from game honors for highest impact and efficiency, mostly because he also backed it up with 5 AST and 3 STL.  Great game for the little guy.

 

Beyond that, it was Muonelo, Thomas and Adams who had solid games for OSU.  Muonelo did it was 56 eFG% shooting (3-of-5 from 3FG), although he did have 4 TO.  Thomas backed up his guarantee for victory with a team-high 7 rebounds (all defensive), 2 BLK and 1 STL, although he committed 4 TO.  Adams shot 2-of-4 and did a tiny bit of everything, just enough to allow his team's solid performance to boost his 31-minute performance to a solid level.

 

Dove struggled with his shooting (38 eFG%) and didn't register a single rebound in 22 foul-plagued minutes.

 

After a tragic week for Darnell Jackson, he brought his "A" game to his home state.  Jackson shot an incredible 83 eFG% and grabbed 10 REB (3 OREB) and shot 6-of-6 from the foul line.  Unfortunately, he also had led the team with 5 TO.  The only other KU player with a solid rating was Russell Robinson, whose performance toward the end makes that hard to believe.  Robinson played a team-high 38 minutes (Collins was hurt) and struggled with his shot (38 eFG%), but he did manage to make all three of his FT, grab 3 REB (1 OREB), dish 3 AST and nab 1 STL against 2 TO.  Aldrich didn't play at least 10 minutes, so his rating isn't "official," but it certainly looked like he played well.  He made his only FGA and grabbed 3 REB with 1 STL and 1 TO in just 9 minutes.

 

Chalmers and Rush had largely forgettable days.  There was a stretch where it looked like Rush was taking over and about to carry KU to victory.  But that is a mere band-aid covering his overall 34 eFG% performance (5-of-16 overall FG) and 3 TO.  He did do well on the boards with 6 REB (3 OREB) and contributed 1 BLK and 1 STL.  Chalmers had an uncharacteristic 4 TO and shot only 45 eFG%.  He also wasn't as disruptive on defense, only getting 1 STL.  Sasha Kaun was a beast on the offensive glass with 5 REB (4 OREB) and made 2-of-3 from the field.  But he also had 2 TO in just 17 MIN.

 

The players who struggled most were Sherron Collins and Darrell Arthur.  In the case of Arthur, taking only 3 shots should tell you everything you need to know.  That is unacceptable for the team's leading scorer.  He only played 17 MIN due to foul trouble and shot only 1-of-3 from the floor.  A meager 2 REB (0 OREB) and 4-of-6 from the FT line to go with his 3 TO ... yeah, it was a pretty ugly day for Arthur.  And yet, Collins had an even lower efficiency rating, because in his 11 MIN, all he did was take a shot and miss it as well as commit one foul.  Completely ineffective with his bruised knee. 

 

 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
Actual 
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 80-64  OSU 61-60 
 Tempo (# poss)
 70 64 47 fouls called certainly seemed to slow the game down.

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 55-46%  OSU 51-45% 
 TO Rate (lo better)  Tie 23%  OSU 31-27%
 Even more sloppy than projected. 
 O-Reb% KU 38-28%
 KU 41-13%
 So dominating, it almost handed KU the victory. 
 FT Rate KU 42-28% OSU 62-33%
 Don't think I've seen this high a FT Rate in any game I've written up, ever. 
 Four Factors Overall
 KU will shoot much better from the field and get many more opportunities to score from the FT line.  No advantages are projected for OSU except a slightly better FT%.  With the exception of OREB, all factors favored OSU.  Most importantly, they attempted more FT and shot better from the field.
 It should have been clear to most that this game was going OSU's way once the FT attempt advantage projected for KU wasn't materializing and KU was struggling to make shots.
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur, Jackson/Rush

 Opp - Anderson, Dove/Eaton/Muonelo

 KU - Jackson, Rush

 Opp -Eaton, Muonelo

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Dove

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Eaton (Dove #5)

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Dove

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Eaton (Dove #5)

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Kaun, Arthur

 Opp - Dove, Muonelo

 KU - Jackson

 Opp - Eaton, Muonelo

 Jackson was the only KU player who performed above his season average.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Stewart, Collins

 Opp - Adams, Anderson

 KU - Arthur, Collins

 Opp - Harris, Anderson

 This makes Arthur's performance the most disappointing of the day.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Both KU's defensive efficiency and OSU's offensive efficiency are highly correlated to OREB%.  OSU to pull in at least 35% of available OREB
OSU had a pitiful 13%  KANSAS - Nearly enough to lose it for OSU.
 One of biggest advantages projected is FT attempts for KU, particularly the frontcourt players.  OSU to limit KU frontcourt (Arthur, Jackson, Kaun) to no more than 8 FTA.  The KU trio attempted 13 FT
 INCORRECT METRIC - The point was that OSU should limit KU's FT attempts advantage, which they did by virtue of their own advantage in the backcourt.  KU's frontcourt edge was not nearly enough to overcome Eaton's constant trips to the foul line.
 TO% is well correlated to both teams' efficiencies on both sides of the ball, yet the game is projected to be tied with respect to TO  Either team to win TO margin by 5 or more.  KU had 20, OSU had 17
 EVEN - First half was KU making mistakes, and the Cowboys returned the favor in the second.  Given the 8 STL for OSU vs only 4 for KU, one could hypothesize that KU wasn't just making mistakes.  OSU was more disruptive on defense.