Sports and Numbers

 
Recap: Kansas at Nebraska Print E-mail
Jan 13, 2008

Kansas 79 - Nebraska 58

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Brandon Rush
Lowest: Ade Dagunduro

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Brandon Rush 8.89
Mario Chalmers 5.36
Russell Robinson 5.21
Sasha Kaun 4.45
Darnell Jackson 3.83
Jeremy Case* 1.49
Darrell Arthur 1.17
Tyrel Reed* 1.13
Cole Aldrich* 0.76
Rodrick Stewart* 0.67
Conner Teahan* 0.66
Matt Kleinmann* 0.00
Sherron Collins -0.85

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  P. Velander 4.79
  A. Maric 3.39
  C. Salomon* 2.61
  J. Strowbridge* 0.53
  C. Balham -0.80
  S. Ping* -0.83
  R. Anderson -1.00
  C. Miller -1.19
  S. Harley -1.51
  S. Henry -3.56
  A. Dagunduro -4.39

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Paul Velander
Lowest: Ade Dagunduro

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Jeremy Case* 31.85
Conner Teahan* 28.16
Tyrel Reed* 24.23
Brandon Rush 11.19
Sasha Kaun 10.58
Russell Robinson 8.92
Cole Aldrich* 8.11
Mario Chalmers 6.74
Darnell Jackson 5.85
Rodrick Stewart* 3.19
Darrell Arthur 2.51
Matt Kleinmann* 0.00
Sherron Collins -1.65

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  C. Salomon* 15.97
  P. Velander 13.66
  A. Maric 5.58
  J. Strowbridge* 2.83
  R. Anderson -1.37
  C. Miller -1.60
  C. Balham -3.44
  S. Harley -3.60
  S. Henry -5.64
  S. Ping* -5.93
  A. Dagunduro -9.39

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

Comments and Observations

Bill Self needs to bottle up whatever it is that his Kansas teams drank right before tipoff the last two seasons in Lincoln.  Even when NU was "coming back," it didn't have the feel of a real comeback.  Kansas is just that good this season.  You have to tip your hat to Brandon Rush, and by extension, Coach Self and his encouragement tactics after calling for Rush to be more aggressive.  It definitely worked this game, and we'll see if Rush keeps it up successfully in future contests.

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Nebraska
Offensive Performance
139.1 111.3
Defensive Performance 83.0 101.2

 Comments

The victory was mostly the result of KU's fantastic offensive efficiency in the face of average NU defense.  NU managed to do a bit better than the average team on offense, but obviously it was far from enough.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasNebraska
eFG%16.8 
TO Rate 2.1
O-Reb%3.6 
FreethrowsFT Pct4.7
 
FT Attempts 2.7 

 

Player Performance Analysis


For Kansas, the discussion must begin with Brandon Rush.  He finished with a season-high 19 PTS on 68.2 eFG% shooting, 6 REB, 4 AST, 3 STL, 1 BLK but also 4 TO.  The turnovers probably kept him from stratospheric efficiency ratings.  The ratings are broken out by half, but his first half (16 of the 19 PTS) must have been through the roof!  Obviously, his purposeful aggression paid off in this game.  His eFG% should be monitored along with his possessions used (if they go up) to see whether his shooting is suffering from poor shot selection.  But it's clear that an aggressive and high-percentage-shooting Rush would improve KU's title hopes significantly.

 

Although Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson made slightly more overall impact, it was Sasha Kaun who played the next most efficient game after Rush.  On 67 eFG% shooting and 2-of-2 FT shooting, he scored 10 PTS, 3 REB (but all were OREB) and 1 BLK with 0 TO in 18 MIN.  Strong work for the senior who is playing his best basketball off the bench.  Robinson also surprised with his 83 eFG% shooting, 10 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL and 2 TO.  His efficiency was sky-high despite missing both of his FT's.  Chalmers put in a workmanlike performance in 34 MIN, shooting 56 eFG% and contributing 14 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST against only 1 TO.  He failed to record a single steal, which is highly unusual.  Perhaps that mild groin strain impacted his ability to stretch out and disrupt the passing lanes.

 

Darrell Arthur struggled a bit on this night even though he shot 67 eFG%.  He finished with 8 PTS but had only 2 REB, neither of which was on offense.  Despite his 2 AST and 3 BLK, he committed 4 TO, all of which are very costly when KU is scoring so efficiently.  Darnell Jackson had a much better game, but a little below his typical efficiency for the season.

 

Sherron Collins had the most disappointing effort of the night for Kansas, making just 33% of his shots with 3 TO.  KU fans should hope he's just getting ready for another stretch of games like he had in the conference season last year.

 

Everyone was waiting for the "Aleks Maric Show," but it looks like his writers were on strike, too.  Not that his efficiency was bad, but it wasn't up to his lofty standards.  Maric shot an impressive 58 eFG% but made only 5-of-10 FT and pulled in only 4 REB in his 26 MIN of action.  Overall, he just wasn't an imposing factor for the Cornhuskers.  Ryan Anderson and Ade Dagunduro were supposed to be the other two shining lights for NU, but Anderson shot only 46 eFG% (3-of-10 on 3FG's), while Dagunduro missed all six of his shots to go scoreless.  Instead, it was unheralded junior guard Paul Velander who shot lights out (133 eFG%) with 1 AST and 2 STL in just 15 MIN.  NU's important weapons didn't have the kind of outing it needed to have a chance against the mighty Jayhawks.

 

 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
 Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 66-59  KU 79-58
 
 Tempo (# poss)
 64 65 

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  NU 51-50%  KU 63-47%
 Not surprising that NU didn't shoot as well as expected, given their lack of meaningful competition, but KU's percentage was super high.
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 28-22%  NU 21-18%
 First game since USC that KU lost this battle. 
 O-Reb% KU 35-27%
 KU 32-19%
 
 FT Rate NU 29-22% KU 25-22%
 This was surprising, although it reflects FT made, so NU's poor FT percentage kept this from being essentially even.
 Four Factors Overall
 KU's edge in TO and OREB should be enough to make up for even battles in eFG% and FT.  Even if NU had shot better at the FT line, it would not have been enough to overcome KU's impressive eFG% advantage.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Rush, Chalmers/Collins

 Opp - Maric, Dagunduro

 KU - Rush, Chalmers

 Opp - Maric, Anderson 

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Robinson

 Opp - Anderson

 KU - Rush (Robinson #3)

 Opp - Velander (Anderson #4) 

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Kaun

 Opp - Anderson

 KU - Rush (Kaun #2)

 Opp - Velander (Anderson #3) 

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Robinson, Kaun

 Opp - Henry, Anderson

 KU - Rush, Kaun

 Opp - Velander, Maric 

 Robinson was correctly projected to have a great game.  Henry and Anderson both faltered mightily.
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Arthur, Chalmers

 Opp - Harley, Maric

 KU - Collins, Arthur

 Opp - Dagunduro, Balham 

 Chalmers played about his average.  Maric did struggle, but not as much as most of his teammates.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 Even though KU is known for its ability to force TO's, their defensive efficiency hasn't correlated with their opponents' TO rate.  NU's has, as has KU's offensive efficiency correlated with its own TO rate.  Thus, ironically, it may be KU's TO rate that will be a key to the Jayhawks' offensive efficiency.  Kansas to keep its own TO rate to below 19% of possessions
KU had 21% TO rate
 NEBRASKA - But this wasn't nearly as important as the shooting category. 
 Aleks Maric and Ryan Anderson hold the fate of Nebraska in their hands.  Both must have strong games.  In particular, Anderson must get open for 3FG's and make them.  Maric must shoot a high percentage, rebound well, and block several shots.  Anderson to attempt at least 6 three-pointers and make at least 3.  Maric to shoot at least 55 eFG%, with 8 REB, 2 BLK  Anderson was 3-of-10.  Maric shot 58% but only 4 REB and 0 BLK.
 KANSAS - Anderson didn't really shoot a high percentage anyway.  Maric wasn't a factor on the boards or inside on defense.
 Nebraska's opponents favor the 3FG over the 2FG without question.  KU had better make the most of their inevitable outside shooting opportunities.  Kansas to make at least 36% of its 3FG  KU made 46% of 3FG
 KANSAS - Big reason for overall eFG% being so high.  If KU doesn't shoot this well, it's a whole different ballgame.
 

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