Sports and Numbers

Newsletter

 

Bulletin

Early editions of previews and recaps are often emailed to newsletter subscribers in advance.  If you'd like to receive advance copies, click on "Newsletter" above or enter email on menu to the left to sign up.
 
Recap: Kansas at Kansas State Print E-mail
Jan 31, 2008

Kansas State 84 - Kansas 75

 cPSAN
"Total Impact" Ratings

PSAN ratings adjusted for quality of opponent

cPSAN70
"Efficiency" Ratings

cPSAN ratings expressed as "per 70 possessions"

Ratings on the Court

Highest: Michael Beasley
Lowest: Russell Robinson

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
Brandon Rush 6.65
Darrell Arthur 3.24
Rodrick Stewart* 2.07
Mario Chalmers 2.02
Darnell Jackson 1.39
Sasha Kaun 0.49
Jeremy Case* 0.00
Cole Aldrich* -0.89
Sherron Collins -1.69
Russell Robinson -2.33

 

 

 

PLAYER cPSAN
  M. Beasley 8.54
  J. Pullen 6.88
  C. Stewart 6.40
  B. Walker 4.34
  B. Young 3.12
  D. Sutton 1.90
  L. Colon* 0.00
  C. Merriewether* -0.15
  D. Kent -0.49

  

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 Ratings on the Court

Highest: Jacob Pullen
Lowest: Russell Robinson

   

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
Rodrick Stewart* 13.38
Darrell Arthur 7.39
Brandon Rush 6.97
Mario Chalmers 2.62
Darnell Jackson 1.80
Sasha Kaun 0.96
Jeremy Case* 0.00
Sherron Collins -2.27
Russell Robinson -3.48
Cole Aldrich* -8.66

  

  

 

PLAYER cPSAN70
  J. Pullen 9.53
  M. Beasley 8.72
  C. Stewart 6.90
  B. Walker 6.73
  B. Young 4.48
  D. Sutton 2.83
  L. Colon* 0.00
  D. Kent -1.05
  C. Merriewether* -5.82

 

*Rating not based on enough data.

 

 

 

Comments and Observations

 

As a fan, when it feels like basically every player on your team is having a bad game, that's when you have to tip your hat to the opponent and give them all the credit.  When it seems like every 50-50 loose ball ends up in the hands of the opponents, it's not just luck.  K-State played an incredible game last night and did what they had to do for the biggest showdown in the conference so far this season.  A lot of people like to point out that the Wildcats shot the 3FG much better than they had all season.  You can use that as an excuse against weak teams, but KSU's results this year suggest they are a major force to be reckoned with.  In big games, you often have to step it up in areas of your game where you are weak, and that's what KSU did.  Some KU fans were upset at some no-calls on KU drives to the basket, but that's not the reason KU lost.  KSU played like they wanted it more, and they probably did.  They deserved this victory, and all their fans should be on Cloud Nine.  They could certainly make an impact on the national landscape as the season marches closer to an end.

 

 

 

Offensive and Defensive Performance

 

Using the outcome of the game and the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each team, performance indicates (in PTS per 100 Possessions) how each team would have fared against an average team.  That is, KU's offensive performance is how many points per 100 possessions KU would have scored against an average defense.  This provides a standard performance we can compare across teams.

 

 

 (pts per 100 poss) Kansas Kansas State
Offensive Performance
125.7 150.1
Defensive Performance 105.3 85.9

 Comments

In a game that was supposed to be a battle of two top defensive teams, offenses reigned supreme.  Against the average team last night, KSU would have racked up 108 points!  That's how strong their offense was in light of the way they performed against the nation's top defense (going into the game).  KU actually performed better on offense than their season average.  So, when all is said and done, this game was about KSU's scoring efficiency.  Although the Jayhawks' poor defense was a culprit, it was more about KSU's phenomenal offense than anything else.

 

 

 

Four Factor Analysis

(Actual statistics moved to Game Projections table below)

 

What did the difference in this
statistic mean to each team?

Scoring Margin Advantage Gained
(does not add up to game margin because teams may capitalize better or worse than average on TO's and OREB)

Statistic MeasuredKansasKansas State
eFG%1.5
 
TO Rate 3.3
O-Reb% 2.1
FreethrowsFT Pct2.2 
FT Attempts 3.2

 

Player Performance Analysis


Everyone expected Michael Beasley to have a strong game, or at least they agreed that it should be expected of him.  So, his game-high impact rating is no surprise.  The player who surprised most of all has to be KSU's Jacob Pullen.  The little freshman fella who was largely a non-factor on offense coming into the game finished with 20 PTS on 56 eFG% shooting, and added 4 AST against just 1 TO.  He had one of the poorer TO Rates coming in, too.  Although it's easy to point to his 10-of-10 performance at the FT line as an aberration, one has to ask KU why they put him on the line 10 times, where he was sure to make 7 or 8 of them.  Pullen's performance is just symbolic on a night where things really came together for KSU, with nearly everything they could potentially do right going right.

 

Beasley's 25 PTS were right on his average, so it might seem at first that he just played his usual game against KU.  But he made 4-of-4 from 3FG and only 5-of-14 from 2FG.  And he utilized the FT line about as poorly as he has all season.  In effect, he made his biggest impact with the three-pointer.  Any other game this season that Beasley made at least two 3FG's, his 2FG shooting was at least 50%.  So, this was really the first time his only effective impact came from behind the arc.  Great timing, some might say.  Great job of stepping up other aspects of his game to take what the offense gave him is what probably should be said.  Remember, Beasley started things off with an airball, and he did have 4 TO, so it's not as though he wasn't feeling the pressure of the game.  He just came through in a huge way.

 

Stewart and Walker both had great games for the Wildcats.  Stewart scored 11 PTS and 5 REB (3 OREB) on 80 eFG% shooting (2-of-3 on 3FG).  Walker managed only 3-of-10 from behind the line, but he used his threat of perimeter shooting to score from inside with 22 PTS and 5 REB (3 OREB) on 58 eFG% shooting.  He did hurt himself with 4 TO though.

 

Blake Young had a solid night, too.  With a casual glance of the boxscore, it doesn't appear that way, but in 27 MIN, he shot 50 eFG% (1-of-3 from 3FG) and had 5 AST with 0 TO.  It was his (and his teammates') ability to keep the ball out of the hands of KU's vaunted backcourt thieves that prevented the Jayhawks from getting easy baskets.  He and Pullen combined for just 1 TO in 55 MIN!

 

Kansas really couldn't get on track most of the game.  It really hurt that the most efficient player on the night, Darrell Arthur, could only manage 17 MIN due to foul trouble.  In those sparse minutes, Arthur only shot 42 eFG% but pulled down 5 OREB (7 REB total) and had 3 BLK.  Maybe he's learned his lesson enough not to get into foul trouble in the rematch in Allen Fieldhouse.

 

Brandon Rush did have a terrific first half but really seemed to disappear in the second half.  His numbers look very good, shooting 75 eFG% (3-of-7 from 3FG) to score 15 PTS, 7 REB (0 OREB), 4 AST, 1 STL and 2 TO.  My view on the timing of his scoring is that it doesn't matter all that much.  If not for Rush's great first half, KU might not have been in the game the second half.  But it was disappointing that he couldn't be counted upon to score as the game progressed.  One of his 3FG's was essentially meaningless in the closing seconds.

 

Watching the game, it felt like Mario Chalmers was perhaps the one Jayhawk who was doing things right.  But upon further analysis, we see that his scoring was the only real positive.  He did shoot 67 eFG% (2-of-4 from 3FG) as well as 7-of-8 from the FT line (any part of the rim his shots didn't touch?).  But in his 30 MIN, he had only 1 REB, just 2 AST against 3 TO.  And the one telling stat for Chalmers ... 0 STL.  Pretty unusual for him not to swipe at least once, and this was his second straight game with the donut in that category.

 

Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun both had mostly neutral impacts on the game.  Jackson made both his FG's and 3-of-4 FT, but he pulled down a mere 4 REB (0 OREB) with 2 TO in 30 MIN.  This looked much more like last season's DJ than this season's.  Kaun also made 100% of his shots, but it was just one shot.  He managed only 3 REB (1 OREB) in 20 MIN to go with his 2 BLK and 2 TO.  Jackson and Kaun's rebounding performance was rather weak, which contributed to KSU's ability to score efficiently.

 

Sherron Collins was a shadow of the player who showed up last year in Manhattan.  At least he shot 50 eFG% (1-of-3 from 3FG), but he did barely anything else in his 29 MIN, with just 2 AST and 1 TO.  Russell Robinson was frustrated all night, feeling that wasn't getting calls on his drives to the basket.  Robinson was an abysmal 1-of-8 from the floor (0-of-3 from 3FG) and finished with 6 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL and 2 TO.  He did make all four of his FT's.  Too bad he didn't get more chances by getting fouled on his drives. 

 

Game Projections

 

 
Projection
 Actual
Comments

 OVERALL RESULTS

 Final Score  KU 79-67  KSU 84-75 
 Tempo (# poss)
 77 72 Probably mostly a result of KSU not losing the ball as often as projected.

 FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES

 eFG%  KU 50-41%  KU 54-52%
 
 TO Rate (lo better)  KU 25-22%  KSU 22-18%
 
 O-Reb% KU 36-34%
 KSU 42-35%
 
 FT Rate KU 30-24%  KU 31-29%
 
 Four Factors Overall
 KU's significant shooting edge should be enough to provide a comfortable margin.
 KSU's surprising edge in TO were reinforced with solid rebounding and more FT attempts.  KSU made more of their TO's and OREB than did KU.  
 

PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)

 Leading Scorers

 KU - Arthur/Chalmers

 Opp - Beasley, Walker

 KU - Chalmers, Rush

 Opp - Beasley, Walker

 
 Highest cPSAN
(game impact)

 KU - Chalmers

 Opp - Beasley

 KU - Rush (Chalmers #3)

 Opp - Beasley

 
 Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)

 KU - Kaun

 Opp - Beasley

 KU - Arthur (Kaun #5)

 Opp - Pullen (Beasley #2) 

 
 Highest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Kaun, Collins

 Opp - Anderson, Sutton

 KU - Arthur, Rush

 Opp - Pullen, Stewart

 
 Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date

 KU - Rush, Jackson

 Opp - Beasley, Stewart

 KU - Robinson, Jackson

 Opp - Beasley, Kent 

 KU fans can take heart in knowing that Beasley played somewhat less efficiently than he usually does.

 

 

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

 A player who shoulder's 56% of the impact on the team must be in every "keys to the game" analysis.  Beasley cannot win this game all by himself, but if he struggles, it will obviously make things very tough for KSU.  Beasley to shoot below 50 eFG% and grab no more than 10 REB. Beasley shot 60% but had only 6 REB  KANSAS STATE - Beasley didn't need 10 REB to make a difference because there weren't that many missed shots by either team.  His shooting percentage, however, was a dagger in KU's heart as he made an uncharacteristic 4-of-4 from 3FG.
 More than likely, this is a defensive struggle given that both teams rank in the Top 5 defensively.  It's whether KU's offensive advantage will materialize that is in question.  KU's biggest drivers there are its eFG% and TO Rate.  KU to shoot at least 50 eFG% and keep TO Rate to 20% or lower   KU shot 54% but had 22% TO Rate  KANSAS STATE - The TO battle going to KSU was very important, but it turned out to be KSU's low total that mattered more than KU's higher one.  KU's strong shooting was the main reason they even had a chance in the second half.
 Sherron Collins had a big game last season in Manhattan, and he will likely be needed again as KU's "X Factor" with the ability to create offense on a night where defense will be the main show.  Collins to score at least 10 PTS and shoot at least 50 eFG%  Collins shot 50 eFG% and scored 12 PTS  MIXED - The metric probably should have been Collins scoring and also having several AST to indicate that he was creating offense for the team, not just making a few of his own shots.